Kamala Harris to Receive Lowest Share of Jewish Vote for a Democrat Since 1988: Poll

US Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former US President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race among Jewish voters by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent, according to a new Manhattan Institute poll.

Such an outcome among Jewish voters would represent the highest vote share for a Republican candidate — and the lowest for a Democratic candidate — since 1988, when Michael Dukakis ran against George H.W. Bush and received 64 percent of the Jewish vote.

While Jews have long been one of the most supportive groups of the Democratic Party, there are also divisions by denomination. Orthodox Jews prefer Trump by a 59-41 margin, while Reform Jews prefer Harris by a 75-22 margin, according to the data.

The poll found that if Trump chose Nikki Haley, rather than US Sen. JD Vance, as his running mate, then Jewish voters would have preferred Harris by a smaller 65-30 margin.

Despite numbers trending toward Trump and Republicans, the poll confirmed that Jewish voters remain a strongly Democratic voting group — which is in line with other recent polls of Jewish voters. In September, the Jewish Democratic Council of America released a poll showing Harris leading Trump by a 72-25 margin.

Harris has received criticism from some within the Jewish community for what they see as her insufficient support of Israel. However, others have pointed out that the Biden-Harris administration has given Israel significant material and diplomatic support since Hamas launched its war against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Other key findings in the poll include the fact that 86 percent of Jews said they consider themselves to be a supporter of Israel, while just 5 percent said they do not consider themselves to be a supporter and 9 percent marked down they were unsure.

Support remains strong across parties and denominations, with 91 percent of Orthodox, 93 percent of Conservative, and 87 percent of Reform Jews considering themselves supporters of Israel. The only group that expressed notably less support for the Jewish state were those who do not consider themselves a part of a denomination — among which 76 percent said they are supporters of Israel.

Similarly, 94 percent of Jewish Republicans and 83 percent of Jewish Democrats responded that they consider themselves to be supporters of Israel.

The proportion of Jewish Democrats who support Israel is of particular note because of rising anti-Israel sentiment within the grassroots of the Democratic Party. Democrats under the age of 35, for example, sympathize more with the Palestinians over Israel by a 74-16 margin, according to recent polling.

There is a key partisan divide when it comes to approaches to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. A majority of Jewish Republicans (54 percent) said they increase antisemitism, while just 11 percent of Jewish Democrats said the same. On the other hand, a majority of Jewish Democrats said it either has no impact on antisemitism or that they are unsure. Twenty-six percent said it decreased antisemitism.

The poll was conducted with 658 Jewish registered voters nationwide between Oct. 6 and Oct. 8, with a margin of error of +/-3.8 percent.

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