Finally, the dominoes are falling on former president Rodrigo Duterte. 

The House quad committee finally got damning testimony from former policewoman and ex-Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office chair Royina Garma that pins the former strongman to various crimes and misdemeanors. 

Other dominoes are expected to follow, which could lead to the fall of the Duterte dynasty, even in their home turf Davao, where other political families are smelling blood.  

The crack in the Uniteam began when former president and Pampanga Representative Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo allegedly tried to oust Martin Romualdez as House Speaker in May 2023, a move that triggered her bff Vice President Sara Duterte to call President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s cousin “tambaloslos,” (described as the worst Visayan pejorative term). This eventually led to her decision to leave the dominant ruling party, Lakas-CMD. 

The crack became a fissure when Sara resigned from the Cabinet as Department of Education secretary in June 2024, followed by a scandal that morphed into a “shimenet” crises involving her use (or misuse) of public funds. 

Having felt — in the words of the President — “deceived,” the two former close allies have split and are now, as Sara puts it, in a “toxic” relationship. 

How toxic? If you thought punching a sheriff was bad, think again. The former Davao City mayor, who first rose to fame by punching a court sheriff several times, now wants to cut off the President’s head! Not only that, she’s thought of digging up the chief executive’s father-dictator’s body from the Libingan ng mga Bayani or Heroes’ Cemetery and throwing his remains in the West Philippine Sea.

An ordinary citizen who’d say he or she wants to behead the President would likely be in deep shit by now. 

Garma’s testimony before the House quad panel is akin to what then-Ilocos Sur governor Chavit Singson did during the short-lived administration of another dynast, former president Joseph Estrada, in 2000. His evidence of jueteng (gambling) payoffs to Estrada eventually led to the president’s quick impeachment by the House of Representatives, followed by an unfinished trial in the Senate that nonetheless led to Estrada’s fall from office via EDSA 2. 

The big difference between then and now is that Duterte is no longer president but a citizen who wants to reclaim his seat as lord of Davao City. There will be no major political instability, and no transfer of power at the top. But there will likely be change in the number two post.

Attempts to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte will surely follow in the coming months. A quick process in the House is possible when Congress resumes session from November 4 to December 20. But whether there’s enough time to complete a Senate trial before Congress adjourns on February 8, 2025, three days before the start of the national campaign period for the 2025 midterm polls, remains to be seen.

Duterte’s remaining allies in the upper house — he can still count on Senators Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and Robin Padilla — can still make it difficult to finish the trial. A daily trial in the morning from January 13 to February 7 would make it feasible, however. 

With Sara out of the picture, Marcos is politically secure until 2028. He and the rest of the Marcos clan will never feel safe for as long as she’s the legitimate successor. A friendlier politician — definitely someone who doesn’t want to decapitate the president — as Sara’s replacement is a must for Marcos. 

As the House quad committee continues to probe extrajudicial killings and other wrongdoings during the Duterte administration, the ball will move to the Department of Justice (DOJ) under Secretary Boying Remulla, who will be moving to investigate and prosecute Duterte and others involved in the crimes that have been alleged by Garma and other witnesses. 

Criminal complaints are to be expected against Duterte. It will then be another Remulla, Boying’s younger brother, Interior Secretary Jonvic, who will be overseeing whatever actions will be taken by law enforcers, if any, against the former president and others who might be indicted. 

Offense as defense

It’s hard to predict now how Duterte and those being put in a corner will react. With his loyal supporter doomsday preacher Apollo Quiboloy now behind bars, a political challenge might be difficult to muster. A prolonged legal battle against the forthcoming criminal complaints is the safest bet for now. 

But one should not discount a surprise counter-attack. It seems the only way out for Duterte now is an unexpected turn of events that would lead to Sara legally taking over.

It’s said that the best defense is a good offense. Sara’s press conference on Friday, October 18, where she uttered statements bordering on sedition, appear to be directed at the military, the sector most pampered by her father.

In reference to her statement that she wanted to cut off the President’s head, Sara recalled not feeling well at that time and being in a graduation ceremony with Marcos. It has become apparent that she was referring to the annual Philippine Military Academy (PMA) rite in May 2024. A graduating cadet asked for the commander-in-chief’s watch. The President declined, despite the cadet repeating his request.

Those in the military may recall a similar incident during Mr. Duterte’s presidential reign in 2019 , where the commander-in-chief, without hesitation, took off his watch and gave it to a young soldier in the PMA graduation rites. 

Sara says she has a list of five impeachable acts of the President. Stay tuned to the next installment of this political series that can be titled Deception. I give her an A for appearing authentic in her series.

Sara also recalled political IOUs of the Marcoses, such as the solid Mindanao vote and support in the Visayas that allowed Marcos to become the country’s first majority president post-1986, as well as her father’s decision to support the burial of the dictator in the Libingan ng mga Bayani following a favorable Supreme Court vote. 

I doubt whether these can whip up public anger against the Marcoses sufficient for a regime change. Sara will have to dig up other skeletons in the closet, assuming there are others. Would it arouse anger in the ranks of the military? That depends on what other ammunition the Duterte camp has.  

Her suspicion that the Marcos camp is casting spells on her — her exact word is “kulam” — looks more like karma to me. She better have worse dirt to throw at the Marcoses.

Sara’s popularity is waning — and will continue to do so as more allegations of corruption are brought up against her. If she thinks she can tide over until the 2028 elections and still win, she is mistaken. The next presidential elections is still over three years away, still plenty of time to dig up more dirt to prosecute and destroy her. It’s certain that the Marcos camp will continue, as Sara herself puts it, to “drag her to hell.”

If the current balance of power prevails, the Philippines could once again see a former president detained. The first was Estrada, who faced a plunder complaint and was convicted by the Sandiganbayan, only to be pardoned by then-president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The second was Macapagal-Arroyo herself, who was under hospital arrest for initially electoral fraud, and later for plunder. She was released over a month after Duterte took office in 2016 following a favorable Supreme Court ruling. 

Duterte may have no choice but to wait for 2028 and see if his daughter will succeed Marcos. That appears to be the only silver lining in this dynastic crisis.

Bad dynasties

Why do dynasties fall? 

We need not look farther than the history of the Marcos family itself. 

President Marcos Jr. and the rest of his clan went through the whole experience of betrayal that led to the fall of the Marcos dynasty — better known as the conjugal dictatorship — in February 1986. He must know how difficult it now must be for the Duterte family. 

Abandoned by the US, a split in the ruling class, an economy gone really bad, people fed up with corruption and abuses were key factors that toppled the Marcos dynasty. It took them five years to reclaim Ilocos Norte after returning from exile, and 36 years to return to Malacañang.

One factor in the fall of dynasties is age — and ailments. In the dictator’s case, he was 68 and had kidney disease when his regime fell. In the case of the Dutertes, they’ve been in power in Davao for nearly 40 years. Rody, with various illnesses, is now 79. Had Sara run and won in 2022, the Duterte reign in Malacañang would have extended 12 years. We have the 1987 Constitution to thank for limiting the presidential term to only a single six-year term. 

Prior to the EDSA revolution, the Marcoses were in power in Ilocos Norte for decades, and extended their throne to the national arena and reigned in Malacañang for 21 years, or from 1965 to 1986. Post-EDSA, they’ve been in power in Ilocos Norte for 32 years. 

As the dynast stays in power for too long, he or she tends to commit mistakes. One such mistake attributed to the late dictator Marcos was his move to call for snap elections in February 1986; he didn’t have to but succumbed to local and US pressure.

Aside from age, the other factor in the fall of bad dynasties is corruption. It is said (by British historian Lord Acton) that “power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” The quote applies to political dynasties such as the Marcoses and — as the various probes of Congress are playing out — also to the Dutertes. 

At the individual level, another bane of dynasts is hubris, or excessive pride. They think they’re the only one capable of providing good leadership. 

Anti-political dynasty law

As we enter another election season, it might be good to take a look at how all these came to be — and see what lessons we should learn in the run up to another round of choices as voters. 

One issue that must be brought up is the absence of a law against political dynasties. One of the proposed measures that was intended to promote democracy in the 1987 Constitution was the prohibition of political dynasties. Section 26 specifically states: “The State shall guarantee equal access to opportunities for public service, and prohibit political dynasties as may be defined by law.”

It’s now nearly four decades since the 1987 Constitution was passed and Congress still has not passed an anti-political dynasty law. This again proves the maxim that legislators will never pass a law against self-interest. To think that we will have one in the coming years is just wishful thinking. 

We must therefore think of ways to promote “equal access to opportunities for public service” without having to pass an anti-dynasty law. 

The 1987 Constitution had also proposed the party-list system as a means to allow marginalized sectors to have a voice in Congress, but even that has been hijacked by many political families. 

It seems the only way to fight dynasties is to appeal directly to voters. It might be worthwhile to remember and pay tribute to a few good men and women who are shining examples of principled leadership.

‘Saguisag’ ng Pilipinas

On top on my list is one-term senator Rene Saguisag, a modest human rights lawyer who also served as a former spokesperson of the late president Corazon Aquino. 

Saguisag is number one on my list because he could have chosen to run for a second term after winning in the 1987 senatorial elections. Despite being a newbie in politics, the Pasig resident placed a respectable 8th, behind politicians with famous surnames such as John Osmeña and Alberto Romulo. 

Although Saguisag could have run again in 1992 and would surely have won, he purposely chose not to, as he believed that democracy is better served by not being hungry for power. Sadly, he has passed on.

Other good men and women on my list are former senators Vicente Paterno, Jovito Salonga, Orly Mercado, Raul Manglapus, all from the 1987 senatorial elections. The top woman on my list is the late senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, for her determination to push for an anti-dynasty law and her wise words against bad politicians.

As she said in a keynote speech in 2013: “Today, the Philippines is now conceivably the world capital of political dynasties. Why do politicians want to build or perpetuate dynasties? Why do young people aspire to be politicians, instead of lawyers or doctors or other respected professionals? People are driven to politics, mainly because of the urge to power; and politicians are driven to dynasties, mainly because of the urge to profit or in some cases, to plunder. For most professions, to succeed, it is necessary to obtain a university diploma, pass a government examination, and acquire years of backbreaking practice. But in politics, virtually no qualifications are required, except possibly the epidermis of a pachyderm, meaning the sensibilities of a carabao.

“No wonder dynasts are called ‘stationary bandits.’ They are the equivalent of Mafia crime families. Members of dynasties are gluttons for power and privilege. They constitute political monopolies and combinations in restraint of opportunities for others.”

There are many other leaders who did not succumb to the strongest aphrodisiac of power, as the late former US State Secretary Henry Kissinger once put it. Many of them believe in the principle of fairness, of giving others a chance, especially to younger leaders.

Perhaps, we should consider this simple lesson as we move closer to the May 2025 midterms: Choose wisely, and if you have to choose a dynastic family, pick the good one. – Rappler.com