The Submerged Trump Vote
We’ve all read the stories and seen the videos about the FBI coming to the homes of ordinary citizens to investigate or arrest them. Sometimes it’s a small group of agents exuding faux amiability who assure the subjects that, although they have done nothing wrong, they need to answer questions about their activities, online postings or publicly expressed opinions.
In short, according to Cahaly, once again Trump is poised to outperform the polls.
Other times it’s a heavily armed contingent of helmeted agents brandishing long guns and ballistic shields dragging the subjects out of their homes and taking them away in handcuffs.
And what have these individuals done to warrant such treatment? Some of them may have had a mobile phone that pinged off a cell tower in Washington, D.C. on the day of the Capitol Hill riot. They may not have been anywhere near the riot, but so what? Since they were in D.C. that day they must explain themselves to the authorities. Or else.
Others may have prayed too closely to an abortion center or protested at a school board meeting.
Then there are those who have expressed themselves online in a manner that has been deemed unacceptable by our all-knowing and omnipotent surveillance-state government.
So what do all of these desperadoes have in common?
They have said or done something that offends leftist orthodoxy.
For example, who can forget the nightmare that befell Marc Houck, the pro-life Catholic, who dared to defend his twelve year old son from an aggressive abortion center escort? Even though he had offered to voluntarily surrender, an FBI SWAT team raided his home in the early morning hours and dragged him away in handcuffs. In the process these heroes terrorized Houck’s seven small and screaming children by pointing automatic rifles at them and their mother.
After the nightmare of indictment and trial, it took a jury one hour to acquit Houck on what can only be described as utterly baseless charges.
And then there’s the infamous memorandum circulated nationwide among FBI field offices calling for the infiltration of the Catholic Church and surveillance of parish churches to monitor possible terrorist activities.
If the FBI’s intention has been to intimidate, cow, and bring to heel the citizenry, it has succeeded. Ordinary citizens who have families, jobs, and lives to lead have learned to keep their heads down, mouths shut and avoid at all costs drawing the attention of the FBI, the Democrat Party’s secret police.
So what does this have to do with political polling?
Consider the following.
In 2016, although the Real Clear Politics national poll averages had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6 percent, she won the popular vote by only 2.1 percent and lost in the electoral college.
In 2020, the RCP national poll averages had Joe Biden leading Trump by 10.3 percent. But Biden won the popular vote by 4.4 percent.
So how and why did Trump outperform the polls in both 2016 and 2020?
Almost alone among pollsters, the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory. Similarly, though it incorrectly predicted Trump’s victory in 2020, that loss was by the narrowest of margins in the swing states. Again, in 2020, Trump’s popular vote greatly exceeded the polling averages.
In October 2022, Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s founder and chief strategist, was interviewed by Elizabeth Staufer of the Washington Examiner. In discussing why the polls had so massively understated Trump’s support among voters, he postulated his theory of the “shy” Trump voters. These were individuals who were reluctant to acknowledge to pollsters their support for the reviled and much maligned Trump.
But the “shy” Trump voter theory applied only to 2016 and 2020. After two years of the Biden-Harris reign, Cahaly explained that the shy Trump voter had become the “submerged Trump voter” who was “virtually impossible to poll.”
Cahaly attributed this transformation to the Biden-Harris regime’s condemnation of MAGA Republicans as a threat to the nation.
“We found a lot of people who don’t want to participate in polls now.… At one time, they would put a sign in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. Maybe they’d comment on social media or talk to their friends and take polls. They’re doing none of that now.”
“A lot of people tell us, with what’s going on … whether this is justified or not, I don’t know the answer, but their opinion is that — based on what they see on television, what they hear, and what they read — the FBI’s keeping track of what’s happening on social media,” he said. “They hear things like the government has told the bank to keep track of gun purchases. So, it’s not a jump in their minds to think that they might be keeping track of what people say in polls. And so, they’re saying, ‘We’re not taking them [polls].’”
“In 2020, were there examples of pro-life activists having the FBI come to their house with guns and take people away? No. In 2020, were there examples of people who were willing to turn themselves in but had to go through an FBI-style raid on their homes? No. In 2020, did people think that the FBI was working with Facebook? No. In 2020, did the president of the United States say that MAGA supporters were a threat to America? No.”
But with the advent of the Biden-Harris regime, all of that changed. And with the targeting of the MAGA movement, Trump voters began to consider the legal risks of voicing their support of Trump.
In other words, why risk drawing the unwanted scrutiny of the FBI, the equally politicized Justice Department, and the rest of the federal surveillance and regulatory behemoth for the sake of taking a poll?
Recently Dan Proft, host of American Greatness’ Counterculture interviewed Cahaly regarding the upcoming 2024 election and the difficulties of polling Trump supporters.
“We have seen a significant undercurrent of Trump voters that are hesitant to say they are for Trump,” Cahaly said. “And, in 2016, it was being shamed mostly with live callers … people didn’t want to to say to a live caller they were for Trump. They didn’t want to be judged by that person they were talking to.
“By 2024 it’s a different thing. There’s a perception among many Trump voters that the Justice Department has been weaponized against them. They don’t know what’s going to happen …When you talk to strong second amendment defenders they are always opposed to gun registration because they know that that will be the list they use to go collect the guns. People feel that way about polls. They are always asking what are you doing with this information? Who are you? What’s this about? Who’s going to have access to this? Is this is going to be something Big Tech can get? They’re very nervous.
“And so what we’re finding is people who hear stories about people using an ATM in Washington on January 6 even though they weren’t near the Capitol being investigated. There’s too much of that undercurrent.”
In short, according to Cahaly, once again Trump is poised to outperform the polls. But this time, it’s because American citizens, who fear the enforcers of the Biden-Harris regime, dare not speak their minds.
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George Parry is a former federal and state prosecutor. He blogs at knowledgeisgood.net.
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