Tropical Depression Kristine enters PAR

MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression being monitored by the weather bureau entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 12 am on Monday, October 21.

It was given the local name Kristine, as the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the first tropical cyclone to have either entered or formed within PAR in October.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin issued at 5 am on Monday that Kristine was located 1,050 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon.

The tropical depression is moving west southwest, maintaining a relatively fast speed of 30 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

Kristine is already bringing moderate to heavy rain to parts of the eastern Philippines on Monday, with floods and landslides likely. Here is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast as of 5 am:

Monday, October 21

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Quezon

Tuesday, October 22

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Quezon, rest of Bicol

Wednesday, October 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, rest of Cagayan Valley

On Monday, the trough or extension of the tropical depression will also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Mimaropa, the rest of Calabarzon, the rest of the Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.

The rest of the country may have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Monday, too, because of Kristine’s trough.

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Meanwhile, the weather bureau raised Signal No. 1 in a few areas as of 5 am, which means they will have strong winds from Kristine in 36 hours:

• Catanduanes
• northeastern part of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Catubig, Lapinig)
• northeastern part of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, San Policarpo, Oras)

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Kristine could be Signal No. 4.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical depression may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Monday, October 21

• southern part of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental

Tuesday, October 22

• Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Negros Island Region, Bohol, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental

Wednesday, October 23

• Mimaropa, Visayas, Mindanao

For coastal waters on Monday, moderate to rough seas are expected in the seaboards of Isabela, seaboard of the northern part of Aurora, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar, and eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 4 meters high); seaboard of Batanes, remaining seaboards of Cagayan and Aurora, eastern seaboard of Quezon, remaining eastern seaboard of Bicol, and eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (waves up to 3.5 meters high); and seaboards of the Ilocos Region, seaboard of Dinagat Islands, and seaboard of the Davao Region (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

PAGASA also said up to moderate seas (waves up to 2 meters high) will be seen in the remaining seaboards of the country on Monday. Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Since Kristine remains over the Philippine Sea and the environment there is conducive for tropical cyclone development, PAGASA said “further intensification is likely.”

The tropical depression might strengthen into a tropical storm within 12 hours; a severe tropical storm by Tuesday afternoon or evening, October 22; and a typhoon by Thursday afternoon or evening, October 24.

Kristine is projected to keep moving generally west until Tuesday morning before turning west northwest to northwest beginning Tuesday afternoon.

It could make landfall in Northern Luzon as a typhoon by Friday afternoon, October 25, but PAGASA said it is not ruling out changes in the projected path of the tropical cyclone. – Rappler.com