LPA outside PAR develops into tropical depression
MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 8 pm on Sunday, October 20, the weather bureau announced on social media at around 10 pm.
As of 10 pm, the tropical depression was located 1,255 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, moving west at a relatively fast 30 kilometers per hour (km/h).
It has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) later said in an advisory released past 11 pm on Sunday that the tropical depression may enter PAR early Monday morning, October 21.
Once inside PAR, it will be given the local name Kristine, as the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024.
Even while the tropical depression is still outside PAR, its trough or extension is already bringing rain to parts of the Philippines.
PAGASA issued a separate advisory for rainfall from the trough of the tropical depression, also as of 11 pm on Sunday. The following areas are affected:
Sunday evening, October 20, to Monday evening, October 21
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Quezon, Bicol, Eastern Visayas
Monday evening, October 21, to Tuesday evening, October 22
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, rest of Bicol, Eastern Visayas
Tuesday evening, October 22, to Wednesday evening, October 23
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, rest of Bicol, Eastern Visayas
The weather bureau said floods and landslides are likely.
In other parts of the country, the tropical depression’s trough may also cause isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms.
ALSO ON RAPPLER
- As danger escalates in Lebanon, some veteran OFWs decide to leave
- EXPLAINER: How St. Timothy’s withdrawal from Miru joint venture impacts 2025 polls
- Alex Eala advances to final qualifying round of WTA Guangzhou Open
- Brownlee catches fire late as Ginebra eliminates San Miguel, sets up finals rematch vs TNT
Since the potential Kristine remains over the Philippine Sea and the environment there is conducive for tropical cyclone development, PAGASA said “further intensification is likely.”
The tropical depression might strengthen into a tropical storm within 12 hours or by early Monday morning; a severe tropical storm by Tuesday afternoon or evening, October 22; and a typhoon by Thursday afternoon or evening, October 24.
The initial forecast track shows it could make landfall in the northeastern part of Cagayan as a typhoon by Friday evening, October 25. But PAGASA said it is not ruling out changes in the projected path of the tropical cyclone.
On Monday, moderate to rough seas are expected in the seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Isabela, and eastern seaboard of Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high), as well as the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Aurora, remaining seaboard of Cagayan, eastern seaboards of Quezon and Bicol, and southern seaboard of the Davao Region (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
PAGASA added that up to moderate seas (waves up to 2 meters high) will be seen in the remaining seaboards of the country on Monday. Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.
The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) said in a statement on Sunday that regional offices have been ordered to prepare for the potential Kristine by monitoring and disseminating weather-related information, conducting pre-disaster risk assessments, and beefing up evacuation plans, among others.
“We urge vulnerable communities to heed our call and make the necessary preparations…. Your cooperation is essential to our ongoing efforts to ensure your safety and well-being,” said OCD Administrator Ariel Nepomuceno. – Rappler.com