Democrats fight for Tester in Montana as Sheehy pulls away

Democrats are refusing to give up on Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) reelection bid even as his chances appear bleak with just more than two weeks until Election Day.

To GOP senators and operatives, the writing has been on the wall for weeks about Tester — and the font has been getting larger by the day. They see little way back for the three-term Democrat in his fight with Republican Tim Sheehy, who leads by 7 percentage points, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling average.

But that has not dissuaded Democrats and outside groups, who are intent on keeping tens of millions of dollars in ad buys through Nov. 5 in Montana and maintain the race — on which control of the Senate hinges — is by no means over.

“We remain confident of Senator Tester’s ability to win the race in part because he’s so rooted in the state,” said JB Poersch, president of the Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the largest Democratic outside group backing Senate Democratic candidates. 

The SMP is putting its money where its mouth is. According to ad-tracking data, the group spent $5.3 million last week to boost Tester and is set to drop a similar amount next week. Overall, spending by Tester and outside groups is almost evenly matched with the GOP’s spending level. 

“Yes, we do. We think it’s viable,” Poersch continued.

Tester also gave himself a financial shot in the arm last week by posting a $30 million fundraising haul over the past three months. That could leave him with more than he can spend on the airwaves in the final weeks in one of the least expensive states on the Senate map.

However, the math is simple for the GOP: defeat Tester, and the Senate majority is almost assuredly theirs. 

Republicans have other pickup opportunities, including in an increasingly red Ohio and a handful of battleground states. But none are as prime for the picking as Montana, which former President Trump carried by more than 16 percentage points four years ago. 

That has made defeating the incumbent Democrat their top priority, especially after Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) retirement put them on the doorstep of retaking the chamber. 

Decision Desk HQ puts Sheehy’s chances of victory at 81 percent. But a number of Democrats, including those in the state, still see a close contest.

“I’m still not betting against Tester. That’s the bottom line,” one Montana-based Democratic strategist told The Hill. “He knows how to win close races and he knows how to turn out a vote. … That muscle memory is something I’m not going to bet against.”

“It’s definitely an uphill climb,” the strategist conceded. 

Democrats maintain the GOP has become too confident in a state that is known to be tough to poll and where Tester has previously prevailed despite being down in the polls. That was especially true in 2012, the last time he ran in a presidential year.

“They’re clearly, in my view, making a mistake,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who ran the Senate Democratic campaign’s efforts during Tester’s last reelection win. “Never count out Jon Tester.” 

But there are still major questions for Tester to answer.

He hasn’t had to overcome quite such a big polling deficit before. And the Trump factor looms large.

According to the recent New York Times/Siena College survey, Trump leads Vice President Harris by 17 points in Montana — a tick higher than his 2020 margin, meaning Tester would need nearly 1 in 5 supporters of the former president to split their tickets and also pull the lever for him. 

That also means he and Harris need to walk a fine line. Tester notably has not endorsed her and has tried to keep his attention on the state. 

“The problem they have there is that Harris can be of no help to Tester. Republicans would probably love to see Harris go to Montana,” one Senate GOP member said. 

It also remains to be seen whether Tester is able to turn out the reservations and the Native American population in the state, which he has been able to do in his past victories. Native Americans make up nearly 7 percent of the state’s population and represented 5 percent of the 2018 voter electorate when Tester was last on the ballot. He won a third term by 3.5 percentage points over Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.).

Democratic operatives believe turnout from reservations, Native Americans and tribes will be make or break for the Montana Democrat. 

“Native American and reservation turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of this race. Sheehy certainly put his foot in his mouth with his comments about drunk Indians at 8 a.m.,” said the Montana-based Democratic strategist. “That’s really been a galvanizing thing across all tribal and native demographics.” 

Sheehy has since said his remarks were “insensitive.”

The strategist also noted that Native American turnout dropped precipitously between Tester’s 2018 contest and the race four years later, which they chalk up to the lack of a top-of-the-ticket draw and a bad winter storm. But that has prompted native groups to redouble their efforts this cycle. Van Hollen recalled that turning them out “requires real effort.” 

Despite the polls, Democrats say they have plenty to attack Sheehy on. In addition to his comments about Native Americans, Democrats are going after his out-of-state ties and questions surrounding a gunshot wound. Sheehy says he sustained it in Afghanistan as a Navy SEAL, but other accounts say he accidentally shot himself in Glacier National Park.

Two more stories questioning his account emerged Friday.

Van Hollen likened the race to Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-Maine) win in a blue state four years ago after one survey after another predicted she would lose to Democrat Sara Gideon.

“It’s just an example of when things get very tight, it all comes down to the ground game,” Van Hollen said, lauding Tester’s efforts on that front. 

However, the race is a catch-22 of sorts for top Democratic groups. They face the question of whether to keep money in the race, even as the polling drifts away from them, that could be spent to boost battleground-state incumbents or to fund long-shot bids in Texas and Florida, or to pull money and redistribute it in other states, essentially conceding the majority. 

"We're pleased that Schumer is still spending in Montana. It's looking like a lost cause for them,” said one GOP operative involved in Senate races. “But obviously we'd love for them to accept defeat and completely pull out.”