Famed historian reveals how he thinks presidential race will play out
Hoover Institution senior fellow Victor Davis Hanson said Friday on his podcast that he believes former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Polls between Trump and Harris have become a tug-of-war, with political pundits warning about the former president’s gains among key Democratic voting blocs. On “The Victor Davis Hanson Show,” Hanson expressed that the public’s overall judgment of Harris’ character will cause voters to stop supporting her.
“I think the time has run out now. Maybe she could have done this 90 days and had all these, and then she would have had some experience, but she’s tried every type of gymnastics now,” Hanson said. “It takes a while, though. I mean, people are very busy, they’re at work or they have their other interests, so they can’t watch TV, they can’t read the news, but they get enough clips over 90 days. Here and there, they’re driving to work [and] they hear a little bit.”
“They turn on the TV and they channel surf — they see a little bit. They go online, and a little news flash comes across their screen and it adds up. I think it’s now got to that summation, that people understand that she’s [not] there, she’s just an empty pants suit — she really is. I think she’s gonna lose, I really do,” Hanson added. “I don’t want to predict, I’m not a good predictor, but it could be what they call a close landslide where she loses by 40 or 50,000 votes but in all seven swing states.”
Hanson pointed to a national Marist poll released on Oct. 16, which showed Harris leading Trump by five points nationally. However, the data also showed Trump leading Harris by ten points among independent voters.
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“That’s what I don’t quite understand [about] the polls. You can’t have the independents going up for Trump, you can’t have blacks going up for Trump and the Latino profile going up and women staying the same — considerable lead for her — but then have the Marist poll go down for Trump, so he’s down by five. It just doesn’t make sense,” Hanson said.
“So it tells me that the pollsters, many of them, feel that they would rather sacrifice integrity and reputation and get her elected. And claim that they really didn’t mean it or like in 2016 — it was just an inadvertent error — but they’re using the polls to gin up support for,” Hanson continued. “I don’t think it’s working and it suggests that they might be really shocked. We might have Rachel Maddow in tears again on Election Eve.”
Both Harris and Trump have been back and forth within swing state polls, however, current averages from RealClearPolitics show Trump largely leading among the key states. Across seven of the key battleground states, Trump now has a 0.8-point lead, taking 48.3% support, with Harris slightly behind at 47.5%.
Nationally, Trump is still slightly behind Harris, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, with the vice president holding a 1.4-point lead over Trump. However, on Thursday, pollster Nate Silver released his updated prediction model, showing Trump holding a slight lead over Harris by more than half a percentage point.
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