UFC Vegas 99 predictions
Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez might not be the first names that come to mind when you think “future title challenger,” but that’s exactly what the UFC Vegas 99 main event winner could be after Saturday.
“Demolidor”—currently holding on to the No. 15 spot at 185 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings—has evolved into a legitimate contender after beginning his UFC career as an oddity. Following a run at welterweight that was foiled more by the scale than his opposition, Pereira made the shrewd decision to move to middleweight where he’s racked up three straight finishes. He faces his toughest challenge in the division yet, though, with Hernandez having won five straight fights.
Since a disappointing knockout loss to Kevin Holland, Hernandez has racked up a series of strong performances, including a stunning submission of grappling ace Rodolfo Vieira, and a streak-busting win over Roman Kopylov in his most recent appearance. “Fluffy” has been saying all the right things about wanting to take on a champion someday and he’s working his way to that opportunity one win at a time.
Not only is Pereira vs. Hernandez unlikely to disappoint from an action standpoint, but we’ll also find out how close either man is to joining the middleweight elite.
In other main card action, Rob Font looks to snap a skid and the three-fight win streak of Kyler Phillips, Charles Johnson is out to prove he’s a player at 125 pounds as he fights Sumudaerji, Jake Hadley takes on short-notice replacement Cameron Smotherman, and Darren Elkins meets Daniel Pineda in a battle of featherweight veterans.
What: UFC Vegas 99
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Oct. 19. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Michel Pereira (15) vs. Anthony Hernandez
Michel Pereira’s plans for world domination are going swimmingly.
First, he dialed back his one-of-a-kind fighting style, going from full-on jazz odyssey every time he went out there to a more technical and, yes, winning approach.
Second, he saved himself an extra 15 pounds of weight cutting by moving to middleweight, which is where he belongs at this stage of his career. Dude is massive.
Third, and most importantly, bring back some of the craziness while still adhering to the more mature tactics that have put you on a career-best eight-fight win streak.
It’s almost too simple.
Anthony Hernandez has the style needed to ruin Pereira’s unlikely championship charge, with a deep reserve of wrestling and grappling techniques in his arsenal. He knows he has to take Pereira down to win, it’s just a matter of executing. We have seen Pereira fall prey to a wrestling-heavy attack before, but that was a bizarre fight against Tristan Connelly in which we clearly didn’t get the best version of “Demolidor,” so I wouldn’t use that as a strong point of comparison.
If Hernandez can take this fight to the championship rounds, Pereira’s cardio might not be up to snuff, so that’s another factor to consider. But I like Pereira’s chances of keeping the fight standing and scoring a knockout before Round 4.
Pick: Pereira
Rob Font (14) vs. Kyler Phillips
Saturday’s main event isn’t the only fight with title contender implications.
Kyler Phillips has been a sleeper at 135 pounds for some time now, his rise to the top only hindered by inactivity and a narrow decision loss. Otherwise, Phillips just needs more quality wins to continue building his résumé. Pedro Munhoz and Song Yadong were good ones, and Rob Font could be the most important victory yet.
That’s not to say Font is a walk-over for Phillips. If Font is a gatekeeper, he’s one of the best, as evidenced by his having gone five rounds with names like Jose Aldo, Cory Sandhagen, and Marlon Vera. All losses, but all fights in which Font’s opponent had to work hard to get by.
The same will be true of Phillips, who has to put forth a career-best effort to avoid losing momentum. Both of these fighters are outstanding technical strikers, with Phillips having the slight edge in activity, speed, and agility. He can’t let up for a second, because all it takes is a couple of mistakes for Font to steal rounds and cause Phillips’ night to end in disappointment.
Phillips keeps it together and wins a decision.
Pick: Phillips
Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
Charles Johnson has shown some great hands during this unexpected three-fight win streak, but it’s his versatility that could be the difference against Sumudaerji. “The Tibetan Eagle” has proven susceptible to submissions throughout his career and if Johnson wants to make it four in a row, he should be sure to include takedowns in his game plan.
Sumudaerji is a threat on the feet and if he hurts Johnson early, it could be a long—or even worse, short—night for “InnerG.” The length of Sumudaerji is one of his strengths and if he controls distance, he’ll work his way to a decision win.
But his defensive shortcomings are too significant to ignore, so I’m actually picking Johnson to catch him on the feet sometime after the opening five minutes. From there, Johnson will find an opening to grapple, either wrestling Sumudaerji down or scrambling to take his back. A choke and a tap are soon to follow.
Pick: Johnson
Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman
If you’ve never seen Cameron Smotherman fight before, the strategy to foil him is pretty clear so far: Take this dude down.
That’s not to say that Smotherman isn’t capable on the ground—in fact, he’s difficult to attack even if put on his back—but you’re much better off wrestling with him there than trading shots on the feet. “The Baby-Faced Killer” is a speedy and accurate striker, always looking for an opening and a threat to finish for all 15 minutes. He could have Jake Hadley on skates early if Hadley isn’t careful.
Fortunately for Hadley, he’s got good hands, too, and Smotherman isn’t always the most defensively responsible fighter. Add in Hadley’s potential to take Smotherman down and he has a clear path to victory so long as he doesn’t freelance too much on the feet.
I have Hadley winning a decision after a tense three rounds, but Smotherman is an exciting addition to the roster and I look forward to his next fight when he has a full training camp.
Pick: Hadley
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
Combined, Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda have 41 UFC appearances and 86 pro bouts overall. To put it lightly, they’ve been through it.
It was only a matter of time until these two faced off and the only complaint one can have is that it’s taking place at the APEX as opposed to being witnessed live by thousands of appreciative fans. It’s just weird to think about how Elkins and Pineda clawed their way up from fighting in local bars to competing at packed venues and now back to an empty building.
Sigh.
None of that matters once the cage door shuts and these fighters rush headfirst into a scrap. How does one even begin to break this one down? It’s not as if Elkins and Pineda are devoid of technique, it’s just that they’re quick to throw it out the window once the poop hits the fan. And it definitely will.
I see the grappling game being dead even here, so they’re going to have to slug it out, and in that scenario I favor “The Damage.” He might not put Pineda down for the count, but he’ll do enough to win a decision in a bout that will likely see both warriors bloody and battered by the end.
Pick: Elkins
Preliminaries
Asu Almabayev (15) def. Matheus Nicolau (13)
Brad Katona def. Jean Matsumoto
Tamires Vidal def. Joselyne Edwards
Jessica Penne def. Elise Reed