The misunderstood brilliance of Jose Alvarado
There’s more than meets the eye with Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado.
Ask an NBA fan about Jose Alvarado, and chances are the first thing they bring up is his defense.
And for good reason. The Puerto Rican guard who’s generously listed at 6-feet tall has made a name for himself in the basketball world over the past half decade as one of the sports’ preeminent pests. He was named the 2021 ACC Defensive Player of the Year while playing at Georgia Tech, and he burst onto the NBA scene in 2022 with a trademark defensive move that has likewise become his official nickname — Grand Theft Alvarado.
Only T.J. McConnell and his backcourt inbounds pass steals rival Alvarado in the pure annoyance he causes the opponent.
New Orleans rightfully rewarded Alvarado with a new contract before the 2024-25 season started, inking the former undrafted free agent to a two-year, $9 million extension. A meager deal by the lofty standards of the NBA, but life-changing money all the same.
But what if I told you that the offensive value Alvarado brings to the Pelicans is severely underrated, while the good he brings on defense is probably a tad overhyped?
It seems like a bold-faced lie on the surface, given his career averages of 7.5 points, 2.7 assists, and 34.2 percent three-point shooting, combined with his finishing in the 91st percentile of Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus last season. But it makes more sense when you examine the basic circumstances surrounding Alvarado. NBA players who stand below 6-feet aren’t signed for their defense, the size discrepancy is simply too vast to overcome. It’s a major testament to Alvarado’s skill that he averages out to a net neutral defender, rather than being a historically bad defender like most of the 5’9 to 5’11 players in the annals of basketball history.
Alvarado’s steals are fun and incredibly valuable swings in each game, but he still gives plenty of that value back, namely in how opponents can shoot over him without much resistance. The Thunder found ample success in the playoffs attacking Alvarado with Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two jumbo ball handlers who could easily rise over him for a jumper at any time. His shot contests just don’t bother players who are significantly taller than him.
(In fairness, Alvarado also struggled on the offensive end of the floor in that series, shooting 1-for-14 from three over the four-game sweep. He’s had a lot of amazing moments in his career. Last postseason was not one of them.)
What Alvarado brings on offense is an insertion of juice and verve that New Orleans can severely lack when he’s not on the court. Unless Zion Williamson has it rolling, the Pels get stagnant, with a lot of dribbling and meandering into inefficient shots. Alvarado uses his 18 minutes each game to consistently collapse the defense and attack with purpose. He hunts for high value assists early and often, especially in the pick and roll, using all kinds of tricky footwork and up fakes to create layups and dunks for his teammates.
It’s one thing to get an assist for just swinging the ball to an open teammate who cans a jumper. It’s another to move defenders so much that your pass essentially creates a guaranteed two points for your offense.
In his career, Alvarado’s assists outweigh his turnovers 455 to 161, good for a sterling 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. Shooting is often thought of as the most easily portable skill in basketball — if you can hit an open three, you can play next to any other player in any offensive setting. But defenses are smarter than they were 10 years ago. They know how to punish players who rely solely on shooting and can’t attack or create off the dribble in a meaningful way, running them off the three-point line and daring them to make decisions.
Good decision making and the ability to create off the dribble is the actual skill that most easily fits into any offense in 2024, and it’s what Alvarado does best. Whether it’s creating the initial advantage himself, or maintaining an advantage created by a star like Williamson, the Pelicans can trust that every time the ball hits Alvarado’s hands, he’s going to do something productive and helpful with it. He doesn’t waste time dribbling into a bad shot, or hesitate with an indecisiveness that kills the flow of the offense. Rather, he can shoot at an acceptable clip from distance, or prob with his dribble until he finds an open teammate in an even better position to score.
Just take a look at his shot chart from last season. Of the 345 field goals he attempted, only 16 came from the mid-range. Every other shot he took was a three or an attempt in the paint. The accuracy comes and goes, but for a Pelicans team that’s filled with mid-range operators, Alvarado’s determination to make every shot a layup or a three blends nicely.
Alvarado especially delights in the art of transition threes, pulling up from deep before the defense is set and hitting them with a dagger. It’s philosophically aligned with the way he plays defense. Every time he hides himself behind a point guard initiating the offense, he’s taking a huge gamble, betting that the potential payoff of him getting a surprise steal outweighs the defensive harm that could come from him trailing the play.
Likewise, some basketball watchers might be opposed to shooting pull-up threes so early in the shot clock, particularly when the offense might have a numbers advantage. But Alvarado sees the benefit to his strategic risk-taking. He swings games with his high leverage sequences on both ends of the floor, and in the end it pays off to make him an extremely valuable player.
As his extension and modest playing time suggest, Alvarado is still far from a perfect player. His at-rim finishing numbers are not good, as is the case for every 6-foot-and-under player in NBA history not named Allen Iverson. While he improved as a shooter to the point that he made 37% of his threes last season, he’s still prone to an occasional cold streak, and at times a player opposing defenses will help off of. And as said before on his own defense, the Grand Theft Alvarado steals help elevate him out of the liability zone, but don’t move him into the echelon of the elite. Sometimes he makes a great read and nabs a steal. Other times he gets switch-hunted and scored on easily. It’s a give and take.
But time and time again, he’s born out to be a huge positive for the Pelicans. In each of the last three seasons, New Orleans’ lineups that include Alvarado have outscored opponents by at least 3.5 points per 100 possessions, and in 2023-24, lineups with Alvarado had an astounding Net rating of +11.4 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning The Glass.
His energy and burst infect everyone around him every time he suits up, not just on defense, but on offense where he kicks the team’s movement into first gear and ruthlessly hunts out efficient looks for himself and others. Next time you talk about Jose Alvarado, don’t just mention his defense. Because it’s his offense that secretly makes him as good as he is.