Hovde faces high-stakes moment in bid to unseat Democrat in Wisconsin Senate race

Republican Eric Hovde is facing a critical moment in Friday's first Wisconsin Senate debate amid signs he's closing in on Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin in one of the country's most competitive races for the upper chamber. 

The rivals will go head-to-head as polling shows the Trump-backed Republican narrowing the gap, fueling GOP hopes for a Badger State pickup in the battle for the Senate majority. 

Hovde, a Madison-area businessman and millionaire, ran for the Senate back in 2012 but lost in the GOP primary, the same year Baldwin ultimately won the seat. Democrats are shrugging off the idea that Hovde has enough momentum this time around — but, as he runs with Trump's backing and a big self-funding boost, voices in both parties acknowledge the race is in toss-up territory.

“It’s a dead heat,” said Wisconsin-based Republican strategist Bill McCoshen, pointing to the recent polls. 

The Cook Political Report shifted the race away from Democrats earlier this month, making it one of just three toss-up Senate contests, after Cook’s Swing State Project surveys found Baldwin’s 7-point lead in August diminished to a 2-point lead this month. Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill also show a shrinking gap: Baldwin’s now up by 2.8 points, down from 3.5 points just last week and 7 points back in August. 

Hovde’s campaign confirmed to The Hill last week that they’ve seen a 1- or 2-point split in recent internal polls, and Baldwin told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that it’s “very close” in her own internals. A polling memo from the Republican National Senatorial Committee (NRSC), obtained by The Hillas reported by Politico this week, found Hovde narrowly leading Baldwin in a head-to-head for the first time in their internals, up by 1 point. With other candidates on the ballot, Hovde and Baldwin were at an exact tie.

"Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue his growth and consolidate support while driving Baldwin’s negatives up and her position on the ballot down," NRSC executive director Jason Thielman wrote in the memo.

And as Republicans have seen promise in the numbers in Wisconsin, outside money has poured into the race, including a big recent influx from the Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, to boost Hovde. Baldwin still has the fundraising edge, according to the latest FEC filings, but Hovde ended the third quarter with slightly more cash on hand. 

“Not only has he invested a record amount of his own money, but the third parties, including the Senate Leadership [Fund] and the NRSC, have invested more than $20 million down the home stretch here,” McCoshen said. “So they clearly see an opportunity for a pick-up and are putting their money where their mouth is. And that gives Hovde a chance for sure.” 

Hovde lost his 2012 bid for the Senate seat in the GOP primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who went on to lose to Baldwin in the general. Six years later, he sat out another run as Baldwin comfortably beat back a Trump-backed challenger to win a second term. 

Republicans are optimistic about Hovde’s second attempt at breaking through in the Midwestern “blue wall” state this year. Though the party had looked to Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) as a potential contender, his decision not to run cleared the way for Hovde to emerge as the top fighter in the battleground-state race. 

He’s notably among the top five self-funding candidates across presidential and congressional races this cycle, according to data compiled by Open Secrets. Among a number of ventures, he’s the CEO of Hovde Properties, a real estate development company, and the CEO of Utah-based Sunwest Bank.  

“Elections in Wisconsin are naturally on a knife’s edge, and they can go one way or the other,” said Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who led communications for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) during the midterms. But a confluence of factors this cycle, from Hovde’s self-funding to former President Trump’s polling in the state, he argued, is giving the Republican momentum. 

Still, while Democrats acknowledge it’s a tight race to the finish line, they’re confident Baldwin will fend off her challenger this November. 

“Close elections are what we do in Wisconsin. And Tammy Baldwin never spent a day of this race campaigning like it was going to be anything other than a knock-down, drag-out fight to the finish,” said Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki in an interview earlier this month. He knocked Hovde’s campaign as “underwhelming” and said the Republican is “playing MAGA dress-up” as he stands with Trump.  

As Hovde tries to paint Baldwin as a career politician, Democrats have cast Hovde as a carpetbagger, pointing to his work out of state, and hammered his past support for overturning Roe v. Wade. 

“A couple of polls show it’s narrowing,” Zepecki said of the race. “And to those of us who live in Wisconsin, we shrug our shoulders and say: Yeah, we always thought this was going to be close. And we go back to work."

Hovde and Baldwin now head into their first and likely only debate stage showdown against the backdrop of a tightening race and a tough battle for Senate control, though Hovde has reportedly pushed for more debates.

Baldwin “will show why Wisconsin voters trust her to represent them in the US Senate: she shows up, listens, and delivers for them and their families. And she’ll work with anyone to do it,” campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo told The Hill in a statement. “Meanwhile, Eric Hovde will be the out-of-touch California bank owner we all know he is, spreading lies about Tammy, insulting Wisconsinites, and pushing his extreme policy agenda.” 

Hovde’s campaign, on the other hand, says the Republican will use the debate stage to “showcase what the people of Wisconsin already know — Tammy Baldwin is radical, extreme and wrong for Wisconsin and it's time for change,” said spokesperson Zach Bannon.

The rivals are expected to spar over some of the same hot topics that have taken up other states’ recent Senate races — like the economy, immigration and reproductive rights — and dip into some of their best attack lines. The Friday night program might not draw a huge audience of Wisconsinites, observers say, but the candidates will likely fight to score viral moments that they can use to boost their profile or bash their opponent in the run-up to Election Day. 

“Any misstep” on the debate stage will be “amplified” over the final days of the campaign, McCoshen said. And in a race where the candidates appear separated by just a point or two, that could make a big difference. 

Another big factor looming over the Senate contest is the competitive race for the White House, as former President Trump’s strength in the Midwest bolsters GOP hopes for the Senate. 

The latest DDHQ averages show Trump with a 0.5 point edge over Vice President Harris in the state. He won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2016, and President Biden pulled off a razor-thin flip back to Democrats in 2020. 

Trump “needs to win for Hovde to win,” McCoshen said. “I can’t see a scenario where Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin and Hovde pulls off an upset.” 

Republicans need just two seats to take control of the Senate, and they’re favored to do so with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) retirement in West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester (D) highly vulnerable in Montana. If they don’t lose any other seats, that could win them the chamber — and potential pickups like Wisconsin could help expand their majority. 

“Wisconsin’s kind of like the country’s foremost 50-50 state,” Zimmerman said. And as the polls grow tighter, “the stakes couldn’t be higher at the time this debate is being held.”