Riding Jayden Daniels's hype train, prepping for a Viking raid and the best NFL bets of Week 7

It’s been a good two weeks at Scumbag Enterprises, the LLC I recently set up as a think tank of terrible ideas that come out of America’s greatest state. Our betting “expert,” the Rhode Island Scumbag, has risen to his station over a 6-1-1 two week span that net him a profit of five units. Pair that up with my 4-1 record in the same stretch and we’re up a combined 10 units since Week 4.

Week 7 has gone out of its way to crush any sense of optimism that could leak from the hearts of haters like us. This week’s slate is loaded with coin flip games and home underdogs, making nearly half Sunday’s lineup a “shrug and pick” situation.

Well, let’s shrug, pick and burn those double-digit profits with two-thirds of the season still to play. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag picks follow.

Let’s keep the positive momentum going! Another (somewhat) profitable week for the Scumbag in the books. At this stage of the game, both Christian and myself have hopefully been providing some cash for those who have taken heed of our advice.

I’m sticking what has worked for me as of late… keeping it extremely simple and trying to exploit offensive and defensive matchups. It’s not foolproof, but it has provided some success now that we have a decent amount of information to work with. On to the picks for this week.

New England Patriots (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars *London game (one unit)

Well, well, well, what do we have here? It looks like New England may actually have something brewing with the switch to Drake Maye. Yes, he had hiccups, but us Patriots fans have not seen a throw like the one he had to Kayshon Boutte in what has felt like an eternity.

He was able to hold his own against a dangerous Houston defense. Now gets to face off against the complete opposite of that when he flies across the pond to take on Jacksonville in London. The Jaguars rank dead last in passing defense up to this point, a far cry from Houston’s top five unit.

They have been better against the rush, but the Patriots are going to try and push the ball downfield with Maye more frequently than they ever did with Jacoby Brissett. If the Patriots run defense can shore up some leaks, they could find themselves on the winning side of things before lunchtime Sunday.

Washington Commanders (-7.5) vs Carolina Panthers (two units)

I’m going to pick on another bad defense this week in backing the Washington Commanders again. The Panthers haven’t been able to slow down any of the offenses they have faced as of late. This trend should continue.

Washington has shown they can beat a team on the ground or through the air and it sounds like they are getting their best running back, Brian Robinson Jr., back this week. Carolina has had some occasionally bright moments with Chuba Hubbard and Andy Dalton thus far, but Washington has too much firepower for Carolina to keep up.

Jayden Daniels and the offense should have a field day this week. This will be a bounce back game for the Commanders. I’m willing to put two units down on this one.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs Detroit Lions (one unit)

Minnesota has been one of the biggest surprises out of the gate this year and could continue to do so against another great team in Detroit this week. The Lions just absolutely dismantled the Cowboys after their bye in Week 5, but lost a key defensive contributor in Aidan Hutchinson in the process.

On paper, Detroit up to this point has a better overall rushing and passing offense, but Minnesota has been sneakily good against the run this year. That may slow down the two headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Ultimately, with Minnesota having the bye to rest up and game plan, (as well as Bill Belichick mentioning how difficult it is to go into Minnesota and get a win), I’ll roll with the Vikings in what will be a great game to watch for a battle of supremacy in the NFC North.

Last week: 2-1-1, +1 unit
Season to date: 11-8-1 (.575), -1 unit

My non-Scumbag picks: Washington Commanders -7.5 over the Carolina Panthers (two units), San Francisco 49ers -1 over the Kansas City Chiefs (one unit) and Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over the Seattle Seahawks (one unit)

The Panthers have played exactly one game they haven’t lost by double digits. While that was a road win, it was also against the Las Vegas Raiders, a collection of beef cuts spilled on the floor and hastily jammed back into its casing with no rhyme or reason behind how. It’s too early in the season for the Commanders to look past an opponent, especially with their defense in the state it is.

I got burned hoping someone could cover against the Chiefs two weeks ago, but that was the New Orleans Saints, who are a poorly disguised disappointment farm. San Francisco, ideally, has gotten its early season slump out of the way. More importantly, we’ve seen Kansas City lose rematches of key playoff games the following regular season quite often; against the Bills in 2021, Bills and Bengals in 2022 and Eagles in 2023.

The Falcons are a gut pick. Atlanta is trending upward. Seattle has lost three straight. The game is three time zones away from the Seahawks’ home base. Of course, trusting the Falcons is the first step toward a lifetime of unhappiness, so I’m sure I’ll regret everything come Monday.

Last week: 2-0, +3 units
Season to date: 11-5 (.688), +8 units