Donald Trump on course for dramatic election win after flipping key state in ‘monumental’ shift, say experts
DONALD Trump is now the punters’ favourite to storm to victory in the US Election.
On the Betfair exchange, the Republican chief is on his shortest odds since the end of July.
Kamala Harris is now out to 6/4, her biggest odds since accepting the Democrat nomination.
On Never Mind The Ballots, Top Republican Strategist, Erol Morkoc, declared “we’ve got this in the bag”.
More than £145m has been wagered on the Betfair Exchange US Election markets, with over £10m staked in the last seven days.
The majority of cash, £6.6m, is coming in favour of Trump.
READ MORE POLITICS
Trump is now favourite to win in a number of key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
And the betting has tightened in Wisconsin, where it’s now neck and neck, and Michigan, where Harris, who is still the favourite, has seen her odds drift.
But the latest ABC poll puts the Democrat candidate ahead of her rival, 49% to 46%.
Betfair Spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “It’s been a monumental couple of weeks on the Betfair Exchange US election winner market, with the odds significantly shifting in favour of Donald Trump.
“The punters are piling in on Donald Trump. In the last two weeks alone, £14million has been wagered on this market, the vast majority of which has gone in favour of Donald Trump.
“It going to come down to the key swing states and he’s flipped Pennsylvania. If he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Georgia, the race is over.”
He added: “All the momentum in the betting has been for the former President, and he is now as short as 4/6 to win a second term in the White House.
“We’ve even seen our Pennsylvania market shift in his favour, which would have a significant impact on the race if he was to win the Keystone State.
“We’re expecting plenty more money on the Betfair Exchange market as the race to the White House enters the final two weeks, and there’s no telling if the odds might shift again, but as things stand it is Trump who’s the punters’ firm favourite.”
Mr Morkoc and Democratic Strategist Laura Fink locked horns on Never Mind The Ballots today, as they debated just how set in stone the race is.
The Republicans Overseas chief insisted swathes of “shy Republicans” will show up to the polls on November 5, paving the way for a Trump victory.
Mr Morkoc said: “He’s got a commanding lead in each of the swing states.
“As far as polling goes, if the polls are tied people are afraid to say how they’ll vote.
“It’s not going to be an easy one, but I think we’ve got this in the bag.”
Hitting back, Ms Finkel accused the Republicans of exerting “wild hubris”.
She said: “This is a dead heat.
“I think the latest swing state polls show Harris ahead in four out of the seven swing states.
“I think some of this wild hubris is to the detriment of the Republican Party.”
Puzzling polls - there's everything to play for
Analysis by Political Commentator Adam Boulten
If you go back to when Trump won in 2016, both the punters and the polls got it wrong.
If you go back to 2020, both for punters and the polls got it right.
This time around there’s divergence.
If you look at what the punters are saying, they are clearly favouring Donald Trump.
But the latest from the opinion poll market puts the averages for Kamala Harris on about 49% and Donald Trump on 46%.
And what’s interesting about that is Donald Trump seems to be stuck at 46% – he’s got about that in every single election.
Whereas we’re seeing now Kamala Harris getting more than Hillary Clinton from when she lost, but on the other hand less in the polls than what Joe Biden got what he won.
In those swing states, basically, if one side wins, then they win.
But what we got at the moment is a bit of a split in the polls.
In the last couple of hours, Harris has been ahead in Michigan, she’s ahead in Pennsylvania, she’s ahead in Wisconsin, she’s ahead in Nevada.
But she is behind in Arizona and Georgia, which Biden won.
She’s also behind in North Carolina.
So that does suggest there is everything to play for.