Experts slugfest: Our first 2025 SAG Awards film predictions
Are “Anora” and “The Brutalist” being underestimated for an ensemble nomination at the Screen Actors Guild Awards? Who will be the surprise SAG nominee of the year? Gold Derby editors and experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng are here with their first SAG Awards film predictions.
While “Anora” is perched atop the Best Picture odds at the Oscars, it’s not even in the top five in the SAG ensemble odds, sitting in sixth place. That might be because the Palme d’Or champ is perceived as a Mikey Madison vehicle, but it’s also a sneaky ensemble piece with great performances by Mark Eydelshteyn, Yura Borisov, Karren Karagulian, and Vache Tovmasyan. Similarly, “The Brutalist” — third in the Best Picture odds but seventh in ensemble — could easily be another film that gets multiple individual nominations, for Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce, but get snubbed in ensemble like “The Power of the Dog,” “The Shape of Water, “The Favourite,” and “Marriage Story.” But the three-and-a-half-hour epic also boasts memorable turns by its ensemble cast, which includes Joe Alwyn, Alessandro Nivola, and Raffey Cassidy.
SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Blitz’ reactions and our first below-the-line Oscar nominations
The SAG Awards also love to shortlist a surprise nominee who fails to materialize elsewhere — see: Penelope Cruz in “Ferrari,” Adam Sandler in “Hustle,” Cate Blanchett in “Nightmare Alley,” and Amy Adams in “Hillbilly Elegy.” Could Adams, who has eight individual SAG bids, pull this off again with “Nightbitch”? Or do performers on Netflix, SAG-AFTRA’s favorite streaming service, have the edge, like Glen Powell in “Hit Man”?
Elsewhere, we discuss “Anora” and its Oscar prospects as it opens in limited release on Friday.
Email your questions to slugfests@goldderby.com.
Timestamps:
Intro and “Anora” (0:00)
Ensemble (22:55)
Actress (31:58)
Actor (37:40)
Supporting Actress (43:41)
Supporting Actor (50:57)
Final thoughts (54:55)