Grammys Best New Artist nominations predictions: Sabrina Carpenter vs. Chappell Roan vs. everyone else

While sometimes controversial, the Grammy Award for Best New Artist is easily the biggest award a breakthrough musician can get, signifying the industry’s support for its own budding talent. It has gone to a wide range of industry favorites like Adele, The Beatles and Billie Eilish. This year the race is packed with mainstream chart breakouts and critically-acclaimed indies all battling for spots among the eight final nominees.

Let’s start with the most obvious contenders. Sabrina Carpenter is one of two front-runners to win the award. She has arguably been the pop star of 2024 with the success of her chart-topping album “Short n’ Sweet,” which includes the top-five hits “Espresso” and “Taste” and the Hot 100 number-one hit “Please Please Please.” This success puts her in a strong position a win, especially paired with the acclaim her album has gotten; it’s sitting at 82 on Metacritic. However, Carpenter might have detractors who argue that she shouldn’t even be eligible for the award since “Short n’ Sweet” is her sixth album, albeit her first to achieve this level of commercial success.

This is where Chappell Roan comes in. She has also achieved major success, with her album “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” being perched in the top three of the Billboard 200. In a way it may be a bit unlucky for Roan to compete this year, as she falls just behind Carpenter in most metrics. Roan has had two pop radio top-10s this year, while Carpenter has had twice that many. Roan’s album has peaked at number-two, while Carpenter’s has spent multiple weeks at number-one. And, while Roan has charted an impressive seven songs this year on the Hot 100, Carpenter charted her whole album.

Where Roan could win, though, is in her narrative. Music fans have connected with Roan’s come-up. She initially struggled to make it in the industry and was even dropped by her label before the sudden success of her album months after it initially came out. This, paired with the fact that Roan’s music is quite introspective and touches on themes of self-discovery and sexuality, could help her win. It definitely makes this the most interesting race for the award since Britney Spears vs. Christina Aguilera back at the turn of the millennium.

A lot of other artists are jockeying for position as well, even if just for a nomination. Crooner Benson Boone is close to a lock with the success of his debut album “Fireworks and Rollerblades,” especially with the monster success of his single “Beautiful Things.” Boone could be joined by fellow crooner (and label-mate) Teddy Swims, of “Lose Control” fame, although Swims has had more trouble achieving a second hit than Boone.

Another male artist breaking chart records right now is Shaboozey, especially as a Black man in country music. He should be safe and could even make a play for a win. He does, after all, have a strong narrative as a unique voice in his genre, especially in an era when Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” and the success of right-wing anthems like Jason Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town” have prompted necessary conversations about country music’s relationship with the Black community. Plus, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is the biggest hit of the year, looking to possibly tie or surpass the record for the most weeks atop the Hot 100 for a soloist (16 weeks). He’s already at 14 weeks. As such, it would be a travesty if he’s not in the final eight.

That’s five slots, so what about the remaining three? It’s always smart to look outside of the pop charts for contenders. Sierra Ferrell has been the talk of the town in the Americana community, taking home Artist and Album of the Year at the Americana Honors and Awards, in addition to collaborating with big names in the mainstream like Zach Bryan and Post Malone. Another possibility in the country/Americana world are The Red Clay Strays, who have actually achieved mainstream success, charting two hits on the Hot 100 so far. The band also won the Emerging Act prize at the Americana Honors and Awards and got a CMA nomination, indicating much needed genre industry backing. Those two could be accompanied by another country breakout and CMA nominee: Megan Moroney. The singer-songwriter is a hot commodity in Nashville right now, thanks to the success of her hits “Tennessee Orange” and “Am I Okay?,” the latter of which went viral on TikTok during voting.

Other names shine outside the world of country and Americana. Jazz/pop/R&B singer-songwriter Raye was snubbed last year, but has submitted again and been intensely campaigning this year. Most importantly, Raye is campaigning in jazz circles, which are powerful in the Recording Academy, making up the second biggest genre bloc behind pop voters. She might even be a dark horse for the win, similar to surprise jazz champs Samara Joy and Esperanza Spalding. Raye will also surely be supported by Brit voters after sweeping the Brit Awards earlier this year, and breaking the record for the most wins ever in one night.

Speaking of Britain, there’s also the rock band The Last Dinner Party, who would be a critically acclaimed pick with their debut “Prelude to Ecstasy” having an 84 score on Metacritic. In that same vein, but with greater commercial success, there’s singer-songwriter Beabadoobee, whose “This Is How Tomorrow Moves” is one of the biggest alternative releases on the charts right now. The album is also acclaimed, scoring 80 on Metacritic, and it includes the triple-A hit “Take a Bite.”

Another possibility is folk-rock band Infinity Song, who have been gaining traction in the industry. The band has yet to achieve major commercial success, but is precisely the type of singer-songwriter-style act that the Grammys love, especially as they have support from industry heavy-hitters like Jon Batiste and Kanye West. Last but not least, rap has fielded some nominees in the category, especially female rappers, so the genre could do so again. The two most likely candidates are Doechii, who has received acclaim for her album “Alligator Bites Never Heal,” and Flo Milli, whose single “Never Lose Me” may be on track for a rap nomination and has been one of the biggest TikTok hits of the past few months.

My Best New Artist predictions:
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Sierra Ferrell
The Last Dinner Party
Raye
The Red Clay Strays
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey