Week 8 picks: Oddsmakers don’t know what to make of the Big 12, either
The mayhem visible in the Big 12 standings through the first half of the 2024 season is also apparent in the Big 12 betting lines.
It’s a coin-flip conference in more ways than one — and to a far greater extent than its peers.
The Hotline examined points spreads for all Big 12, Big Ten and SEC games over the past month, a timeframe that coincides with the start of conference play across the country.
Specifically, we looked for instances in which the betting lines were no bigger than a touchdown.
The results confirmed our suspicions but were a tad jarring, as well: Three-quarters of Big 12 games over the past month had point spreads of a touchdown or less.
Neither the Big Ten or SEC was anywhere close:
Big 12: 76.9 percent (20 of 26 games)
Big Ten: 50 percent (15 of 30 games)
SEC: 44.4 percent (12 of 27 games)
The parity cuts two ways, however.
It creates narrow betting lines, close games and topsy-turvy results. But the lack of dominant teams — teams that would command double-digit point spreads — is a limiting factor for TV audiences.
That aspect of Big 12 existence was made clear and obvious when we looked at the highest-rated games of the season, using data from the SportsMediaWatch website.
Only once has the conference been involved in a matchup that generated an audience of at least five million viewers: Colorado’s early-season loss at Nebraska, a primetime broadcast on NBC that captured 5.67 million eyeballs.
It seems the thrills follow the Big 12, but the eyeballs don’t — at least compared to the SEC and Big Ten.
To the picks …
Last week: 7-3
Season: 36-24
Five-star special: 4-3
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue
Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Ducks have a long trip on a short week after the massive win over Ohio State — a vulnerable spot if ever there was one. The Boilermakers had been dreadful but showed signs of life offensively last week at Illinois. That’s a few too many points for the home team given the likelihood of an Oregon letdown. Pick: Purdue
Arizona State (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN+
Comment: A challenging situation for ASU with the early start, backup quarterback Jeff Sims replacing the injured Sam Leavitt and coach Kenny Dillingham forever lost in a mosh pit. Also, the Bearcats have been respectable thus far: Their ledger includes a three-point loss at Texas Tech, which beat ASU by eight. Pick: Cincinnati
UCLA (+4.5) at Rutgers
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
Comment: Until proven otherwise, we are picking against the Bruins every week, regardless of opponent or point spread — but especially when they are playing on the East Coast at 9 a.m. Pacific. Pick: Rutgers
NC State (+10.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on the ACC Network
Comment: The Wolfpack is on the short list of most disappointing teams — not only in the ACC but across the country. And yet, Cal in the role of double-digit home favorite scares the daylights out of us. Pick: NC State
Hawaii (+18.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The early-afternoon start in Pullman is a breakfast affair for Hawaii’s body clocks — and one of many reasons this should be over before the fourth quarter begins. Pick: Washington State
Colorado (+3.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Travis Hunter is expected to play, which means we should be treated to one-on-one matchups with Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan. The quality of play at other positions won’t be nearly as high. Arizona’s offense against Colorado’s defense strikes us as the resistible force and the moveable object. Pick: Colorado
Georgia (+5) at Texas
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Despite blowout victories over Michigan and Oklahoma, the Longhorns haven’t been tested by an elite opponent. The Dawgs are elite and, because of the loss to Alabama, they are desperate, as well. Pick: Georgia
UNLV (-7) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW
Comment: A huge spread for any Mountain West school not named Boise State to give on the road against a Pac-12 opponent. But with OSU’s battered defensive line, it makes sense. Pick: UNLV.
TCU (+4.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The clouds of uncertainty have lifted for the Utes. They aren’t better off without Cam Rising, but they are better off without an injured Cam Rising hobbling around in the pocket, unable to run or throw properly. Time for a healthy, talented Isaac Wilson to become the undisputed leader of the offense. Pick: Utah
Straight up winners: Oregon, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Cal, Washington State, Colorado, Georgia, UNLV and Utah.
Five-star special: Utah. Consider this a get-right game for the Utes now that clarity has come to the quarterback situation. Also, TCU lost at home to Houston.
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