Creighton Preview, 2024-25
January 3rd, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 8th, 2025 at CHI Health Center
Head Coach: Greg McDermott (605-355 overall, 325-160 at Creighton)
Three-Year NET Average: 26.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 24.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 13
Photo by Brad J. Williams | White & Blue Review
State of the Program
On The Office, Andy Bernard once said "I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you left them." If Creighton fans don't know it, they are squarely in their good old days. Greg McDermott guided Creighton to second place in the Big East and their third Sweet 16 in four years. McDermott has 11 wins in the NCAA Tournament at Creighton, which is more than the program had in its history (10) before he was hired. Their 7 NCAA bids since the Big East reformation are second only to Villanova.
2023-24 was a season where Creighton found themselves in the AP Poll 19 of 20 weeks and were consistently viewed as one of the top teams in the league, even if UConn and Marquette got more ink spilled about them. That team was led by first-team All-Big East Baylor Scheierman and second-team members Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Of those three, only Kalkbrenner is back. Sixth man Francisco Farabello also exhausted his eligibility. In response, McDermott brought in a pair of high-major double-digit scorers in Pop Isaacs and Jamiya Neal while adding a trio of heralded freshmen. This is again a team that should be competing at the top of the Big East.
Rotation
Steven Ashworth proved a capable replacement for Ryan Nembhard, leading Creighton to a top-10 offense and their highest Adjusted Offensive Rating score since the 2014 Doug McDermott team according to kenpom. Despite being a mediocre defender, Creighton was 14.2 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor than off. He's joined by Texas Tech transfer Pop Isaacs, who had a down year in terms of efficiency but was integral to Grant McCasland's first-year success. He is best as a spot-up shooter, though his shooting percentages fell off as he played hurt the entire year. Expect him to return to form in McDermott's offense. Fedor Zugic is a freshman on paper, but that is a dubious categorization. The 20-year-old has been playing professionally in Europe since 2018, appearing in over 200 games, most recently for BG Göttingen in Germany's top league. Mason Miller returns as a starter but was clearly the fifth man of that group and will likely be pressed for minutes by numerous bench contributors. The star of the show will be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the first three-time Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East since Alonzo Mourning. Kalkbrenner excels not only at protecting the rim, but using his length to alter passing lanes. What's even more impressive is his ability to stay on the floor as Kalkbrenner never had more than 3 fouls in a game last year and in 134 appearances for Creighton has NEVER fouled out of a game. Offensively, he is a destroyer at the rim (76.7% of his shots come at the rim, converting at a 73.1% rate) but also has the ability to step out on occasion.
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
If Creighton had a problem last year, it was bench depth. Farabello was the only bench player to average more than 9 mpg. The addition of Arizona State transfer Neal should give them a capable sixth man, while Isaac Traudt played legit minutes early in the season and Jasen Green came on late to give them some bench experience. The addition of Jackson McAndrew, Creighton's highest ever ranked recruit, and top-100 guard Larry Johnson give McDermott additional bench options. This year, the problem might be too many mouths to feed as there are probably no fewer than 5 and possibly more players expecting to at least be in the rotation come conference play.
Style of Play
Creighton's offense is a thing of beauty. The players are in constant motion, with McDermott putting multiple shooters on the floor around his big man. They were top-10 in three point rate, though that may dip with the departure of Scheierman. Creighton doesn't get to the rim often, but because of Kalkbrenner they are lethal when they do. Their biggest problem last year was how often they used mid-range shots, but that was almost exclusively Trey Alexander, who took 39.2% of his shots in mid-range. He's the perfect example of why mid-range shots are a bad idea. Alexander took a high volume there and his 47.5% conversion rate in mid-range was in the top-100 nationally, so pretty good. Meanwhile, he was sub-1,000 in his conversion rate at the rim, but still converted 54.9% of his attempts when he got there. Compared to the rest of the country, his usage of mid-range was high as was his conversion rate while his usage at the rim was low, as was his rate. However he was 7.5% more likely to score when he got to the rim. The below chart demonstrates why coaches are discouraging mid-range shots.
Back to the offense, if Isaacs rebounds to form and Zugic can be a deep threat, expect the threes to continue flying. Creighton's guards and wings will be in constant motion and when they miss, Kalkbrenner is a one-man wrecking crew on the offensive glass. And while Creighton isn't always regarded as an up-tempo team because they don't force turnovers, that really isn't the case. They were in the 74th percentile in transition opportunities and their 1.34 points per possession was in the 97th percentile. They will look to push off made shots or rebounds when the opportunity is there and are comfortable both in transition and in the half-court. In terms of half-court actions, the drive and kick is where it starts but Kalkbrenner is a lethal rim roller. Creighton is in the 99th percentile in terms of big man cut & roll frequency and 97th percentile in efficiency. That said, the only frequent finishers at the rim are Creighton's bigs. Of their returning perimeter players, Isaac Traudt took the highest percentage of shots at the rim at just 14.5%.
Defensively, Kalkbrenner is the key to everything Creighton does. McDermott never had a top-40 defense prior to Kalkbrenner's arrival, but they've been 32nd or better each of the past four years. Kalkbrenner erases shots at the rim, allowing their perimeter defenders to aggressively chase opponents off the three-point line. They've ranked top-10 nationally in defensive three-point rate each of the past two years. Not only that, but they do all that without fouling as Creighton has been no worse than 4th nationally in defensive free throw rate the past three years. Perhaps the most ridiculous stat last year is that Creighton was dead last in opponent free throw percentage at 78.8%. That's not a controllable factor, but despite teams shooting free throws better against Creighton than any other team, the Jays also allowed the lowest percentage of opponent points at the free throw line. The reason for that is because they foul so seldom that teams just don't get enough opportunities. What does all that mean? Creighton doesn't give up open looks from three and doesn't foul, which means opponents need to get into the lane to score, where Kalkbrenner swallows up shot attempts. Their one defensive weakness is that Creighton doesn't force turnovers, so teams will generally be able to run their offense, but it's advised to score on that first shot because they don't give up many second chances.
Chart from kenpom.com
2024-25 Outlook
Returning three starters from a top-15 team that went to the Sweet 16 is clearly a strong step in the right direction. The downside for Creighton is what they lost. Scheierman and Alexander accounted for 44.8% of the Jays scoring and 45.9% of their three point makes. Both were integral to the offense and their shared ability to get to their spots and create looks out of nothing was a massive part of Creighton's top-10 offense. Will Pop Isaacs be able to replace that type of production? It seems unlikely. Fedor Zugic might be the answer in that regard. He is already literally a pro (there are questions as to what class he will enroll in or if he will even be eligible) and looks the part on film, but coming over from Europe is a big adjustment and it's a lot to ask anyone to replace the gravity of a Scheierman or Alexander. However even if the offense takes a step back, with Kalkbrenner anchoring the middle and Ashworth running the point, they're almost certain to be a top-25 offense again. The defense will likely be at a top-25 level as well, simply because Kalkbrenner gives the rest of the team so much freedom and they still have the length to disrupt the perimeter. Creighton opens with five home games before heading to Vegas for the Players Era Festival. They'll use those to figure things out and expect this to be a Big East contender once again, and if things go right, a team with Final Four potential.
One Man's Opinion
I'm sure picking Creighton as #4 in the Big East will seem like a slight to Creighton fans, but it's less about what I think of Creighton and more what I think of the top of the Big East. This team is a Big East title contender and even if they don't get there could be #4 in the league and a 3-seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. The positives are that Ashworth and Kalkbrenner are an excellent bookend 1/5 combo. There are a couple more reasons for doubts than the teams I have in the top-3. Will Zugic live up to the hype and what will his eligibility picture look like? While I couldn't stand Trey Alexander's love of inefficient shots, will Pop Isaacs be able to increase his own efficiency to match Alexander's production? Will the bench be able to provide more than spot minutes? If Creighton can answer these questions, they could end up on the top of the Big East mountain and a Final Four isn't at all out of the question.