NFL straight-up picks, Week 7: A week of coin flip games, home underdogs and Super Bowl 58 (again)

We finally did it. We got a perfect week of picks — and it was from our worst game-picker.

A mostly upset-free week of football gave Prince Grimes, backer of the Indianapolis Colts and zero other underdogs, a perfect 14-0 record in Week 6. That took Grimes from just about as accurate as a coin flip (40-38 through five weeks) to a more respectable 59 percent hit rate. That’s still last place among our panel, because despite a rocky start our NFL knowledge has begun to even out.

Week 7 won’t be nearly as cheery. It’s filled with toss-up games and untrustable home teams. Two-thirds of this week’s matchups, including another Monday night doubleheader, are games with point spreads of three points or fewer. That includes five home underdogs, at least four of which should be plucky enough to pull off a victory (not you, Cleveland Browns).

Who’s gonna take each game this week? Let’s take a look and pick some winners.

Last week’s success looked a little like my 2023, where I ended the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 7 picks:

All odds via BetMGM

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Washington Commanders (-7.5) over the Carolina Panthers

Why I like this pick:

Washington is at home and needs to reset after last week’s close-but-not-too-close loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Panthers are crawling back into their hole and Andy Dalton is no longer surprising anyone. The league’s most efficient quarterback, Jayden Daniels, is facing the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Carolina has a road win this season. Granted, it was against whatever the hell the Las Vegas Raiders are and it’s the only game they didn’t lose by double digits. The Commanders’ defense is, in a word, bad.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 4-2 (.667)

Hardest favorite to back: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over the Detroit Lions

Why I like this pick:

Minnesota is a well coached team coming off a bye. Detroit’s pass rush ranked only 24th in pressure rate before losing Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg. The Lions’ pass defense is much improved from 2023, but facing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and maaaaaybe T.J. Hockenson is a tough sell for even the best secondary out there. After dismantling the Cowboys on the road, there’s room for a Detroit adrenaline dump.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The vibes in Detroit are immaculate to the point of calling old familiar plays and trick standbys and having most of them work to devastating effect. That won’t be as easy against Brian Flores’s defense, but the Lions probably won’t need another 47 points to win. Sam Darnold showed signs of regression before the bye and there’s an unshakable feeling the other shoe is waiting to drop. The Vikings will have to play a bruising run game just as tough as a dynamic passing game, and while they should be able to handle it there’s a lot about which to worry.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 3-3 (.500)

Upset pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over the Baltimore Ravens

There are several games I don’t quite know what to do with. The Broncos and Saints each laid an egg last week. Am I supposed to trust Bo Nix on the road? Spencer Rattler vs. a top five defense? Maaaaaan.

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers about to throw Russell Wilson into the lineup despite Justin Fields’ pretty-goodness? Which version of the Arizona Cardinals are we getting vs. the Los Angeles Chargers? Ooof. I kinda hate this week. Let’s take a closer look at the Bucs, I guess.

The Ravens offense ranks fourth in explosive play rate and second in EPA. Lamar Jackson is following up his MVP 2023 with another MVP caliber campaign and in the midst of his most efficient season as a passer (a league best 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt). Tampa’s pass defense is good, not great.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 2-4 (.333)