The greatest comeback in F1 history is on – Max Verstappen is on the ropes but Lando Norris needs perfect last six races
IT is do or die for Lando Norris as Formula One heads into the final six races.
The biggest comeback in the sport’s history is on, and it will take something exceptional to pull it off – but it is not beyond the realms of possibility.
The Sprint weekend at Austin’s sweeping Circuit of the Americas marks the first of the final races to the end of the season in Abu Dhabi on December 8.
SunSport has chewed the fat on the Verstappen-Norris title fight and what it will take for the McLaren driver to emerge victorious.
How things stand
Red Bull driver Verstappen holds a 52-point lead over Norris in the Drivers’ Championship.
The tables have massively turned, given Verstappen held a season-high lead of 84 points up until the British Grand Prix in July 7.
In-form Norris has outscored him in all but one of the six races that have taken place since.
The margin of 52 points is the exact equivalent of winning two races with the fastest lap bonus point (25+1) on a non-Sprint race weekend.
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How many points are left to play for?
There is a maximum of 180 points up for grabs across the final six race weekends of the season.
That is 156 points in the remaining six grands prix, 25 for a win plus one for the fastest lap.
In addition, there are three sprint races remaining where one driver could bag a maximum of 24 points.
The winners of the sprint races in USA, Brazil and Qatar will be awarded eight points for victory.
How does Norris need to outscore Verstappen?
Norris must outscore Verstappen by an average of almost nine points (8.67 points to be precise) at each grand prix weekend until the end of the season.
That is the points difference between first and third places (10 points) in a grand prix.
Norris cannot be crowned champion if he wins every race and Verstappen comes in second.
That could have still been on the cards had Norris clung onto the bonus point at the most recent grand prix in Singapore for fastest lap.
But Daniel Ricciardo controversially snatched it away on fresh tyres with one lap to go.
When could the title be won?
The absolute earliest the title could theoretically be won by Verstappen is the Sao Paulo GP weekend on November 1-3.
But the Red Bull driver would have to outscore Norris by at least a whopping 34 points over the next triple-header.
Who’s got the quicker car?
There’s no doubt about it being McLaren, who have won four of the last six races, two for Norris and two for Oscar Piastri.
This season’s McLaren MCL38 has been the most consistent performer on different types of circuit.
Whereas Max Verstappen recently in Singapore said that Red Bull’s RB20 was “f***ed”.
The team are pinning their hopes on a significant upgrade planned on the RB20 for Austin this weekend.
F1 reporter Isabelle Barker's prediction
I EXPECT Max Verstappen to go all guns blazing over the next six-rounds. I also think his experience and aggression could give him the edge.
It seems too little too late for Norris showing consistency, despite that dominant win in Singapore last time out.
You can’t help think what could have been had he sorted out his first-lap issues sooner.
Norris needs to prove he has the mental fortitude, because we all know he’s got the speed, the team and the fastest car.
Verstappen has endured an eight-race winless streak, but he has still managed to score points, with three second-places during that time.
So I think the Dutchman will lift his fourth world-title this season, by the skin of his teeth.