Ireland’s Three-Way Race to the 2025 Elections
2024 has shaped up to be a wild and unpredictable time in Irish politics. The Taoiseach, the Republic of Ireland’s equivalent to a Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, stepped down from his position. “After seven years in office, I am no longer the best person for that job,” he announced in March. This was a massive shock to the entire nation, especially to members of his own centrist party, Fine Gael, who were reportedly not informed of the Taoiseach’s decision before it was broadcast live.
“When I became party leader and Taoiseach in June 2017, I knew that one part of leadership is knowing when to pass on the baton to somebody else…I will resign and Taoiseach as soon as my successor is able to take up that office,” Varadkar announced, citing that his reasons were “personal and political” without any further elaboration.
The Irish public didn’t know it at the time, but their new leader was hovering right behind Varadkar’s shoulder.
Who’s the New Guy?
Fine Gail selected the energetic and relatable Simon Harris to take the reins of his party and country three weeks after Varadkar’s resignation. At only thirty-seven years old, Harris has proven his worth working as the junior finance minister, health minister, and higher education minister as a member of the Dáil, Ireland’s parliament. Harris coins this rise as “accidental”; he simply took the positions that were available to him as a member of the cabinet. He has curated an identity as a “TikTok Taoiseach,” answering questions on policy posed by members of the public and surpassing his older colleagues by effectively reaching constituents through social media.
However, critics and even some fellow members of his party paint a different picture, one of a cunning and relentless Blitzkrieg, “He’s hungry for it…he’s been planning this for years,” one former Fine Gael figure said. Harris stood unopposed as the next leadership candidate after securing sufficient party endorsements.
Personal aspirations aside, Harris’ performance as Taoiseach over the past five months since his appointment has noticeably increased his popularity, surpassing the rival left-leaning Sinn Féin and center-right Fianna Fáil parties. This is quite the contrast to the rocky start that he experienced at the beginning of his tenure, inheriting a party that left much of the country disappointed.
Frenemies and Enemies
The Taoiseach was even lambasted on his first day in office when the president of the Sinn Féin party, Mary Lou McDonald, posted a video on the steps of the parliament building, “I’m here at the Dáil today… the Taoiseach isn’t here… We [Sinn Féin] are here. We’ve shown up to do our job.” Micheál Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil, was not nearly as cutthroat with Harris as a political opponent. In fact, Martin stood up for Harris amid online threats made against Harris and his family, and he vouched for his expertise in European affairs.
“Simon Harris has been in government for a considerable amount of time as well and would be well aware of all of the issues,” Martin told the press, “I don’t believe [Harris’ eyes] would be taken off the ball.”
This may seem like unusually warm behavior between political rivals, but it is the norm between the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties. Either the Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil parties held power in all three branches of the Irish government since Ireland gained full independence from Britain in 1949.
This has allowed Sinn Féin to emerge as a political underdog, not responsible for policy failures like the two leading parties. In short, Harris and Martin were tied to the publicly jaded opinions of their parties, and McDonald used every mistake they and their parties made to undermine their support.
From December 2020 to June 2024, this strategy worked. Sinn Féin was the most popular party in Ireland. Then, Harris countered this with his administration’s handling of Ireland’s most hot-button issues, such as promising to build 250,000 new houses by the end of 2029 and an administration focused on improving national childcare availability and budget. These promises have pole-vaulted him ahead of the rival parties.
Can Harris keep up this momentum until March 2025, the absolute latest that the next general election can be scheduled? Estimates place Fine Gael at a 25 percent likelihood of winning, so with roughly six more months to go, an upset from the two-party status quo could shift Ireland’s domestic and international policies. The United States will likely get a better idea of what is at stake for Ireland pending Harris’ visit to the White House later this month.
Lake Dodson is an Assistant Editor for the National Interest. His interests are Korean-American relations, cybersecurity policy, and nuclear energy/weapons policy. He is currently studying the Korean language, has completed courses on North-South Korean Relations, and has conducted various experiments on an AGN-201K Nuclear Reactor at the prestigious Kyung-hee University in Suwon, South Korea. His specific interests are effective nuclear energy policy, cyber-security, and the economy and politics of East Asia. He holds a BA from the University of Mississippi.
Image: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com.