The US freight recession is showing early signs of recovery
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- JB Hunt beat earnings estimates for the first time in two years.
- Shares climbed as much as 8% on signs of improving demand.
- The freight industry has been struggling through a post-pandemic-era recessionary period.
Trucking company JB Hunt earned the approval of stock investors on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected earnings report showed demand is coming back.
Shares of the company climbed as much as 8% after both third-quarter revenue and earnings-per-share results surpassed estimates after the closing bell on Tuesday. It's welcome news for a company whose earnings have consistently underwhelmed forecasts over the last two years. The last time JB Hunt exceeded the consensus EPS forecast was the third quarter of 2022.
It's a promising signal that the prolonged US trucking-industry recession is easing and demand in the sector is returning, albeit gradually. JB Hunt specifically mentioned demand in its biggest business — intermodal service — had improved throughout the third quarter.
The firm — considered a freight industry bellwether — has been among many suffering from an extensive post-pandemic trucking slowdown. With low demand and oversupplied trucking fleets, this so-called recession has bankrupted thousands of carriers and trucking brokers.
These struggles have translated into weak market performance for JB Hunt and other freight carriers. Even with Wednesday's sharp move higher, the company's stock is still down roughly 10% year-to-date, badly trailing a 23% return for the benchmark S&P 500.
"We continue to navigate a challenging freight environment," JB Hunt CEO Shelley Simpson acknowledged in the firm's earnings conference call on Tuesday, but followed up with a positive take: "As discussed last quarter, we have seen a return to more normal seasonal demand patterns as evidenced across our businesses in the third quarter."
Chief operating officer Nicholas Hobbs added: "Our sales pipeline remains strong, and our team has worked hard to backfill most of those truck losses we have experienced this year."
He added that 258 trucks were sold in new deals over the quarter and cited a significant pickup in customer locations, boosting the firm's trucking margins.
Going beyond JB Hunt, there has been other data suggesting better prospects ahead.
DAT Freight & Analytics' trucking volume index rose year-over-year for all three different categories of freight equipment for the 12 months ended in September.
"We're firmly into a new freight cycle after nearly 22 months of rather extreme expansion and 27 months of contraction," Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics, said in a release on Wednesday.
"We expect seasonality to provide some tailwinds over the next few months, and hopefully modest improvements in rates coupled with retail freight volumes and stable fuel prices can get the motor carrier base on more solid footing," he added.