Dominant NFC North eventually will test Bears' mettle

The Bears’ 35-16 victory over the Jaguars on Sunday in London was a peak moment for the Matt Eberflus era. It gave the Bears a three-game winning streak for the first time since 2020 and provided more evidence that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is the real deal.

But as it turned out, the Bears glorious victory was the least impressive NFC North performance of the day. In the noon-kickoff time slot, the Packers took a 24-0 lead over the Cardinals in the first half and coasted to a 34-13 victory at Lambeau Field. Later that afternoon, the Lions did them one better and embarrassed the Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones, taking a 27-3 lead in the first half en route to a 47-9 shellacking at AT&T Stadium.

All the while, the Vikings enjoyed their bye week with the best record in the NFL (5-0, tied with the Chiefs), with a league-leading plus-63 points differential — including a 34-7 blowout of the now 5-1 Texans.

Maybe it’s just the Bears’ luck that they finally appear to have turned the corner toward relevance in the NFL, and the NFC North suddenly is the best division in football.

After six weeks — one-third of the NFL season, so a fair sample size — the Vikings (5-0), Lions (4-1), Packers (4-2) and Bears (4-2) are a combined 17-5, including 16-4 against non-division teams. That's the best combined record by any division after six weeks since the NFL’s eight-division realignment in 2002.

In fact, the four losses by NFC North teams to non-division teams have come against teams that all currently are .500 or better. The Bears lost to the Texans (5-1) by six points and Colts (3-3) by five, both on the road. The Lions lost to the Buccaneers (4-2) by five at Ford Field. The Packers lost to the Eagles (3-2) by five on the road.

But that doesn’t tell the story of the NFC North’s dominance this season. The Vikings (plus-63), Lions (plus-60), Bears (plus-47) and Packers (plus-41) are the top four teams in the NFL in point-differential after six weeks. (And the improving Bears are plus-64 since falling behind the Titans 17-0 in the first half of the season opener.)

This is the first time since the 2002 realignment that an entire division has topped the points-differential chart after six weeks. In fact, no division has had more than two teams in the top four I point differential after six weeks since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

And for what it’s worth, every team in the division seems to be improving. In the last three weeks, the NFC North is 9-0 against non-division competition, winning by an average of 16.8 points per game.

It remains to be seen if the NFC North has staying power. The Lions and Packers were expected to be here. But the Vikings are a surprise with Sam Darnold at quarterback — they were 23rd in ESPN’s power rankings heading into the season. And the Bears even on a three-game roll, are still 16th — only one spot ahead of where they were before the season began.

But the NFC North teams are not one-trick ponies. The Vikings, Lions and Packers all rank in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring and scoring defense. The Vikings are third in points and third in points allowed. The Lions are first in points and eighth in points allowed. The Packers are tied for eighth in points and tied for ninth in points allowed.

The Bears aren’t far away. They’re 12th in scoring (but fifth over the past three weeks at 31.3 points per game) and fifth in points allowed.

That current dominance sets up a particularly competitive and compelling division race, with most of the NFC North games coming in the second half. The Packers play five of their last nine games against NFC North teams. The Vikings play four of their last seven. The Lions play four of their last six.

And the Bears? They have the most interesting scenario of all. The Bears play all six of their division games in the final eight weeks of the season. That looks like a Murderer’s Row of opponents down the stretch right now, but it also gives Williams & Co. more time to prepare for it.

And with Williams getting more and more comfortable with coordinator Shane Waldron’s offense — regardless of the level of competition — Bears need time more than anything else to get their offense ready for six games against defenses currently ranked in the top 10 in points allowed.

The Bears’ advantage is having a schedule that has allowed them to win as their offense grows. They’ll have more opportunities against the Commanders (22nd in scoring defense), Cardinals (tied for 27th) and Patriots (21st).

But they know what’s coming. Tight end Cole Kmet even referenced it when talking about the importance of last week’s game against the Jaguars.

“We all look at the schedule and to go into the bye week 4-2 instead of 3-3 is a big set-up for us, especially with all the division games we’ve got coming later,” Kmet said. “And that’s where the schedule gets really tough. So we’ve got to get as many now before those division games hit.”