Harris up 3 points over Trump in new national survey
Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by 3 points in a poll released Wednesday by Fairleigh Dickinson University, which took a close look at how voters see the candidates through the lens of masculinity and femininity.
Harris's lead on Trump in the poll, with 50 percent support to his 47 percent, tracks with her 2.8 point lead in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's polling index.
In terms of gender perceptions, Trump and Harris were predictably seen as far more masculine or feminine, respectively.
Overall, 74 percent of respondents said Trump had some level of masculinity compared to 26 percent who said he was not masculine. Twenty-nine percent of participants viewed Harris as completely (2 percent), mostly (5 percent) or somewhat masculine (22 percent), compared to the combined 71 percent who said she was not very masculine (25 percent) or not at all (46 percent).
“Voters tend to associate masculine qualities with leadership qualities, so female candidates have to try and be seen as at least somewhat masculine to be seen as leaders,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the executive director of the poll. “When Harris talks about owning a gun, for instance, she’s claiming masculine traits, and voters seem to be buying it.”
The vice president has 50 percent support among those who say she’s at least a little masculine, and 54 percent support among those who say she’s not at all masculine.
The pollster said support for Trump drops off significantly among those who don't see him as masculine.
“Trump’s appeal is based on his performance of a certain kind of masculinity. When voters don’t buy into that performance, his support plummets, even among Republicans,” said Cassino.
“The demands on Harris and on Trump are very different,” he added. “Female candidates have to be seen as both masculine and feminine, but for Trump, being seen as being at all feminine is just disastrous for his support.”
Sixty-eight percent of surveyed GOP voters believe he's completely masculine compared to 14 percent of Democrats. Thirty-three percent of Democrats say he’s “not masculine at all,” while only 2 percent of Republicans surveyed cited that response.
Forty percent of Democrats say the vice president is “completely feminine” while only 26 percent of Republican participants say the same.
Among LGBTQ voters, Harris touts a 58 percentage point lead, with 78 percent support to Trump’s 20 percent, according to the poll.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), is viewed as more masculine than Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
Thirty-eight percent of voters see Vance as being “completely masculine,” compared with 27 percent for Walz, while 11 percent rate both candidates as being “not at all masculine.”
“Both candidates for Vice-President are performing masculinity, but in very different ways,” said Cassino. “Vance’s more traditional style seems to be more convincing to voters as a form of masculinity than Walz’s more compassionate take.”
Braun Research conducted the survey of registered voters Oct. 8-14. Responses were collected from telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys resulting in an overall sample of 806 registered voters nationally. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.