AP Top 25 women's basketball ballot breakdown: What is Iowa without Caitlin Clark?

The WNBA Finals are nearing the finish line, which means the women’s college basketball season is just around the corner.

While stars like Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark have graduated to the pros, this remains a sport filled with big names and interesting storylines. ACC Rookie and Defensive Player of the Year Hannah Hidalgo returns to Notre Dame, joined in the backcourt by former All-American Olivia Miles who is now healthy. National Freshman of the Year JuJu Watkins is primed for an encore at USC, where she’s joined by talented transfers Kiki Iriafen and Talia Von Oelhoffen. At UConn, Paige Bueckers is back and the Huskies bolstered their roster with the nation’s No. 1 recruit, Sarah Strong.

And then, down at South Carolina, the reigning national champs bring back Te-Hina Paopao, Tessa Johnson, Milaysia Fulwiley, Chloe Kitts and other exceptional players as Dawn Staley’s side attempts to repeat.

A week ago, I turned in my preseason ballot for the Associated Press Top 25 Poll, which was announced in full on Tuesday.

Here are the 25 best teams in the country, according to me, as we enter the season:

Will Fairfield be good again?

25. Fairfield
24. Gonzaga
23. Stanford
22. Miami
21. Louisville

I wrote about the Stags a handful of times last season, how they have a unique position group name, how they made a clever resume in an attempt to crack the AP Top 25 Poll, and how they won 29 straight games.

Fairfield had its best season in program history last year, going 31-2. The Stags only lost two games, falling on the road at Vanderbilt, and then in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Indiana. After declining interest from some other major programs in the offseason and signing a three-year contract extension, head coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis is back and so are four starters and 91% of the Stags’ scoring from last season, including Janelle Brown and Meghan Andersen.

We’ll found out pretty earlier how legit Fairfield is when it comes to competing on the national level, with non-conference games against Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Villanova.

What is Iowa without Caitlin Clark?

20. Iowa
19. Baylor
18. West Virginia
17. Creighton
16. Kansas State

It feels like a lot of folks are overlooking and dismissing the Hawkeyes simply because Caitlin Clark is no long draining logo 3s for them. And indeed, that’s a major loss, obviously. And maybe Iowa isn’t a Final Four contender this season, but they should still be a solid team in the Big Ten capable of playing in and winning meaningful games in March.

The Hawkeyes return two significant contributors in Sydney Affolter and Hannah Stuelke – the latter of whom, if you remember, scored 47 points on 17-of-20 shooting in a win last season over Penn State. And then Iowa went and got one of the best scorers out of the portal in Villanova’s Lucy Olsen, who was fourth in the nation in scoring with 23.3 points per game last season.

In this new era of Iowa basketball under Jan Jensen, Iowa will be just fine.

How fast will Kentucky bounce back under Kenny Brooks?

15. Ohio State
14. Kentucky
13. LSU
12. Maryland
11. Duke

After spending nearly all of his life along the I-81 corridor in southwest Virginia, Kenny Brooks left Virginia Tech for Kentucky and the riches of the SEC.

Yes, the money that the SEC gets from its college football television contracts trickles into other sports, evidenced by Kentucky handing Brooks a contract with an annual average salary of $1.5 million, making him the third highest-paid coach in the SEC and the seventh highest-paid coach in the country. Even if Brooks had won a national championship with the Hokies, he was never going to garner that kind of dough in Blacksburg.

When Brooks left the ACC for Kentucky, he brought the player he calls his “mini-me” – firecracker Australian point guard Georgia Amoore – with him. She was an All-American last season, left the Hokies as their all-time leader in assists, and has already been named to the SEC’s Preseason First Team. Toss in other transfers, like Charlotte’s Dazia Lawrence, Oregon State’s Dominika Paurova, Teonni Key of North Carolina, and another Virginia Tech standout in Clara Strack, and Big Blue is looking pretty good on-paper.

The post-Deja Kelly era begins for North Carolina

10. N.C. State
9. North Carolina
8. Iowa State
7. UCLA
6. Oklahoma

Six players transferred out of Chapel Hill in the offseason, and none generated more headlines than Deja Kelly’s decision to spend her fifth season of eligibility at Oregon. But Kelly leaving UNC might’ve truly been the best thing for both sides.

Kelly continues to be the focal point of an offense for a team that probably needs to make the NCAA Tournament to save Kelly Graves’ job. Oregon is also a place deeply connected to Nike, likely a plus for the business-minded Kelly, and Graves has a history of developing WNBA talent, which is also a stage she wants to play on.

For North Carolina, consider this: In games last season in which Kelly had at least three assists and attempted 14 shots or less, UNC was 9-1 – a record that includes impressive wins over N.C. State, Duke and Louisville. When Kelly had two assists or less and took 15 shots or more, the Tar Heels were 1-7. Simply put, when the ball moved, UNC won. When it didn’t and Kelly took the majority of the shots, the Tar Heels lost.

On paper, this looks like a team that will have a by-committee point guard as they brought in fifth-year guard Grace Townsend from Richmond to pair with Kayla McPherson and Reniya Kelly, and freshman Lanie Grant. Additionally, now healthy for the Tar Heels is former five-star recruit Ciera Toomey, a long and versatile forward who can score inside and out and should complement returning All-ACC Swiss-Army Knife Alyssa Ustby, sharpshooter Lexi Donarski, and an imposing center in Maria Gakdeng.

What does South Carolina do at center?

5. Texas
4. Notre Dame
3. UConn
2. USC
1. South Carolina

The Gamecocks deserve the benefit of the doubt here. They steamrolled their way to an undefeated season and national title last year and return a significant number of contributors, from defensive ace Bree Hall to floor general Raven Johnson.

But last season, that team revolved around Kamilla Cardoso, who led the Gamecocks in scoring, rebounding and blocks. She was the Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four. In the national semifinals against N.C. State, Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins combining for 30 points and 31 rebounds were a big reason why the Gamecocks won.

With Cardoso in the WNBA and Watkins’ situation unclear, questions remain in the front court for the Gamecocks. Dawn Staley’s best teams – from A’ja Wilson to Aliyah Boston to Cardoso – have had dominant and skilled centers. Who fills that void? Is it 6-foot-5 freshman Adhel Tac? Is it Sania Feagin, Sakima Walker or Maryam Dauda? Is it highly touted freshman Joyce Edwards? Or is it a combination of a few or all of them?

A rematch against N.C. State in Charlotte on Nov. 10 should give us a good indication of the answer.