MANILA, Philippines – Before flying out of Vientiane after a week’s worth of pomp, pageantry, and speeches, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made an assertion — that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, made up of one summit after the other, and one intervention after the other, isn’t just about talk.

But even if it was, argued the late dictator’s son, he’d “rather be talking than watching conflict,” Marcos told reporters in an October 11 briefing at Laos.

In different summits — even in ones where geopolitics is traditionally not on the agenda — Marcos put forward the Philippine position, urging Southeast Asian neighbors to “not to turn a blind eye to the aggressive, coercive, and illegal actions of an external power against an ASEAN member state for such actions undermines their claims of genuine adherence to our core values.”

What did Marcos, and the Philippines, get from his bold statements in Laos?

Nothing new, really. The Chairman’s Statement, prepared by Laos, mentioned the December 2023 Foreign Ministers’ Statement “on Maintaining and Promoting Stability in the Maritime Sphere in Southeast Asia.”

The same statement noted that the situation in the South China Sea was discussed and “concerns were expressed by some ASEAN Member States on the land reclamations and activities in the area, including actions that put the safety of all persons at risk, damage to the marine environment, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions, and may undermine peace, security, and stability in the region.”

While the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea were both mentioned, there was no mention of the 2016 Arbitral Ruling, which decided that China’s sweeping claim of the South China Sea was invalid.

“The final document was a Chairman’s Statement prepared by Laos on its own. So we had no real say on the language. There were negotiations on a joint ASEAN statement but no consensus. Hence, Laos issued a statement on its own,” said Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, in a statement relayed through the Palace.

Rallying ASEAN?

“Silence in the face of these violations diminishes ASEAN,” said Marcos at the closed-door ASEAN Leaders Retreat Session. The Philippine President did not say whose “aggressive, coercive, and illegal actions” he was referring to, but surely everyone understood.

China’s harassment of Philippine vessels in the West Philippine Sea, part of the South China Sea that includes the country’s exclusive economic zone, has been the stuff of headlines since mid-2023, when Manila first introduced its transparency initiative.

The Philippines has since made its own term for China’s maritime actions, which analysts once referred to merely as “gray area” tactics: the clunkier ICAD (illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive).

At this point, it’s important to highlight a few things — the retreat is usually where leaders of the bloc tackle geopolitical issues, including ones that can be and are rather touchy to other member states.

Curiously, too, Malacañang was opaque about Marcos’ intervention (or statement) during the Retreat Sessions. As of Monday afternoon, October 14, it has yet to publish the text of Marcos’ remarks in full. Marcos’ communications office also did not make media releases on the Retreat, referring to it only after the President’s interview with the media. It’s a move that’s in stark contrast to previous ASEAN summits, when the Palace would release transcripts of Marcos’ interventions in full.

The Philippine President made another bold move in the ASEAN-China summit, by bringing up maritime issues. A diplomat from Southeast Asia was quoted by Nikkei as saying Marcos “broke tradition” by bringing up the need for “earnest” dialogue to resolve maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

“In our view, there should be more urgency in the pace of the negotiations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (COC),” said Marcos, according to a release from the Palace. Marcos added: “We continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation… Parties must be earnestly open to seriously managing the differences and to reduce tensions.”

The ASEAN-China summit is usually where bloc leaders, as well as China, talk about areas of cooperation — especially economic. Geopolitics are rarely brought up. Nikkei, citing sources, said “Vietnam, Singapore and Thailand followed Marcos’ lead and brought up their South China Sea concerns.”

Marcos would later tell reporters that the conclusion of the long-negotiated Code of Conduct on the South China Sea was in China’s court, since “ASEAN has been waiting for a long time.”

The ASEAN question

At the East Asia Summit, which gathers all 10 members of ASEAN as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the US, Marcos again called on nations party to South China Sea disputes to be “conscientious and earnest concerning this most consequential issue.”

“Though positive developments have occurred recently in my country, it is regrettable that it has not changed the overall situation in the South China Sea, tensions remain,” said the President.

There was no consensus, too, on the East Asia Summit statement, which ASEAN had drafted. A US official accused China and Russia of “blocking” the proposed statement, “mainly over objections to language on the contested South China Sea,” according to Reuters.

Other ASEAN partners — the US, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India — were reportedly okay with the language but “the Russians and the Chinese said that they could not and would not proceed with a statement.”

“We confirm there was no consensus on an EAS statement,” said Presidential Communications Office (PCO) Secretary Cesar Chavez. Malacañang did not comment on who blocked the consensus statement, however.

There’s long been talk and frustration over ASEAN’s silence even as tensions in the South China Sea have steadily been rising. The silence has been deafening — especially when you see videos and photos of Filipino soldiers fighting off China Coast Guard personnel wielding bladed weapons, or Chinese vessels ramming Philippine vessels.

ASEAN, after all, is made up of states with different levels of care on South China Sea maritime issues.

But Marcos seems to have left Vientiane on a strangely optimistic note, telling reporters he’s gotten “offers of help” in the form of joint sails, joint operations, or discussions where other members of the bloc can serve as interlocutors.

“These are things that perhaps might not be expressed in open session but are expressed on the sideline,” he said. Officially, Marcos only met with one ASEAN country on the sidelines of the summit — co-claimant Vietnam. The Philippine President also met with Canada, New Zealand, and Japan, during the summit.

Marcos declined to disclose who had offered what sort of help because it would “put them in a spot by talking about the specifics of what we had discussed.

“For the most part, our neighbors and all interested parties — which include the EU, certainly the United States — have all come to talk to us and say there is much that we can still do. And let’s explore this or let’s explore that,” he added.

Talk is cheap when it’s the kind that doesn’t translate to safer conditions out in the West Philippine Sea, and the de-escalation of an existential threat to the Philippines. It’s a dime a dozen when you’re talking to a country like China that insists on bilateral discussions and negotiations, even as it rams Philippine ships in the West Philippine Sea.

By Marcos’ own metrics, talk is better than “watching conflict.” But what if the two happen at the same time? – Rappler.com