Breaking Down The Game 1 Pitching Matchup; Senga Versus Flaherty

After a four-day layoff, the New York Mets are back in action for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). The Mets, who defeated the Phillies in four games, will face the Los Angeles Dodgers, who defeated the San Diego Padres in five games concluding on Friday. What should you expect from the two starting pitchers in Game 1 of the seven-game series?

Kodai Senga

Kodai Senga successfully made his long-awaited return in Game 1 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) against the Philadelphia Phillies. Senga’s first appearance since July 26 was mostly a success, as the pitcher he showed to be last year was on display throughout his two innings of work. He induced five swings-and-missed and only allowed the one hard-hit ball. In all, he only allowed one hit (a Kyle Schwarber lead-off home run), one run, and walked only one. He did have three strikeouts as well.

The most encouraging aspect of that appearance was his velocity, for the most part, was good. He was only a miles-per-hour or so off his fastball velocity average from last season, and right on what right-handed pitchers averaged in the league this year. Overall, despite the long ball, Senga looked like he did for most of last season, which is extremely encouraging.

On Saturday, when manager Carlos Mendoza officially announced Senga would start, he confirmed the Mets’ ace is only expected to go about three innings. This would be a one inning improvement from Game 1 of the NLDS when he threw 31 pitches. So, how does Senga matchup with the Dodgers for these three projected innings?

The Dodgers’ offense, including an injury-battling Freddie Freeman, is one of the best in baseball. Los Angeles owned the league’s fourth-highest batting average (.258) and highest OPS (.781) in the regular season. Their offense walked the second-most in the majors and struck out the 12th-fewest amount of times.

All the above offensive numbers translate into strong splits against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Against righties, which of course is what Senga is, the Dodgers’ own the second-highest wRC+ in the majors at 117 (100 is major-league average). For reference, the Dodgers own a 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers; the best mark in the majors.

Of course, the 31-year-old Senga is known for his vintage “ghost fork,” pitch. His ability to fool hitters into chasing the pitch well out of the strike zone due to its fastball-out-of-the-hand looking tendencies is what his game is built upon. According to Baseball Savant, a large majority of Dodgers’ hitters have struggled against the split-finger pitch this season (most similar pitch to Senga’s forkball). Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Gavin Lux all have negative run values against the pitch this season. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani owns a plus-seven run value against the pitch and star Mookie Betts is at plus-three run value.

What the Dodgers have going best for them against the lethal pitch is the fact they simply do not chase. The Dodgers’ offense owned the second-lowest chase rate in the regular season. Now, Senga’s vintage “ghost fork,” is not a normal pitch. However, it certainly not customary for Los Angeles’s elite lineup to chase any pitches that aren’t in the strike zone.

As for prior history, Senga has only one start against the Dodgers, back in 2023. He tossed six innings of one-run ball to go along with nine strikeouts. Ohtani was not with the Dodgers at the time, however, he has seen Senga once in his career, going 1-for-1 with a double and two walks.

It has yet to be determined who follows behind Senga after his likely only three innings of work. David Peterson (5.74 ERA across 15 2/3 career innings against Los Angeles) may be an option as well as José Buttó (4.15 ERA across 4 1/3 career innings against Los Angeles) or Tylor Megill (3.18 ERA across 17 career innings against Los Angeles), who threw seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in May of this year.

Jack Flaherty

The 28-year-old Jack Flaherty was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, then saw his numbers dip after a huge first half with the Detroit Tigers. Since coming over from the Tigers, Flaherty owns a 3.58 ERA and 4.16 FIP across 55 1/3 innings. In his lone start during the NLDS against the Padres, he allowed four runs and five hits over 5 1/3 innings during the Dodgers’ 10-2 Game 2 loss.

Including his playoff start against the Padres, Flaherty has now allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts. Specifically, his ERA over this recent stretch is a startling 7.71.

Worth noting, the 162 total innings Flaherty has thrown this year is the highest mark since his age-23 season in 2019. Prior to 2023, Flaherty went three-straight seasons where he threw less than 79 innings. In that 2023 season, the most innings (144 1/3) he threw since 2019, Flaherty struggled mightily down the stretch, allowing a 6.41 ERA in August and a 7.20 ERA combined in September and October. Is the 28-year-old once again hitting a wall like he did in 2023 due to fatigue and an inning count he is not used to surpassing?

Despite the recent struggles, Flaherty is having a very strong season overall as his 3.51 xERA ranks in the league’s 70th percentile. The right-handed pitcher has built his success this season on generating a large number of strikeouts (90th percentile strikeout rate) thanks to a huge chase (72nd percentile) and whiff (91st percentile) rates. Flaherty, who profiles more as a fly ball pitcher (38th percentile ground ball rate), also did a nice job limiting hard contact when teams were able to hit his stuff (74th percentile). He does not walk batters 83rd percentile walk rate).

The high whiff rate is driven by Flaherty’s elite knuckle curveball. The pitch is inducing an absurd 43.6% whiff rate and a batting average against of .164 (.209 expected batting average). Flaherty’s curveball has been so good this season, it ranks fourth among 253 qualified pitchers who have thrown that pitch type. The Mets, as a team, are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to whiff rate (14th-lowest in the majors).

Of Mets expected to be in the lineup against Flaherty in Game 1, only Francisco Álvarez, Pete Alonso, and Mark Vientos have negative run values against the curveball this season. Meanwhile, Jesse Winker, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo have all own run values of five or higher against the pitch type. Winker’s plus-seven run value against the curveball ranks 11th among 430 hitters who have had at least 10 plate appearances against the pitch this season. Starling Marte (plus-three), Tyrone Taylor (plus-one), and Jeff McNeil (plus-one) all also have positive run values against the curveball in 2024.

As far as platoon splits go, Flaherty has been a really interesting case. Over his career, he has been pretty even against left-handed and right-handed batters. However, this season, Flaherty has distinct reverse splits. Left-handed hitters have a mere .605 OPS and .215 batting average against Flaherty this season. However, against right-handed hitters, Flaherty is allowing a .730 OPS. Does that mean manager Carlos Mendoza may opt to keep his left-handed batters out of the lineup against the right-handed Flaherty (Winker, McNeil)?

As a team, the Mets have hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitchers this season. Their wRC+ against right-handed pitchers still is not bad by any means, ranking 11th-best in the majors (105 wRC+; league average is 100). For comparison sake, the Mets own the fourth-highest wRC+ in the league against left-handed pitching.

Interestingly enough, the seven-year St. Louis Cardinal only has one appearance against the Mets in his career. He tossed 5 1/3 innings all the way back in 2019. Flaherty has a career postseason ERA of 4.15 over 30 1/3 innings.

Final Thoughts

The Dodgers’ offense is arguably the best unit in the major leagues; slashing terrific numbers against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. It will be no easy task for Kodai Senga, who is only making his fourth start of the 2024 season. On the plus side, the Dodgers do not perform well against Senga’s best pitch. However, stylistically, Los Angeles does not chase much, which may hurt Senga’s overall approach.

As for the Mets’ offense, Jack Flaherty has had a resurgent year, but has struggled since moving over to Los Angeles at the trade deadline and is once again trending down the last couple months of the season as his inning count is as high as it has been in years. The Mets also attack his best pitch, the curveball, pretty well. Given this, the team should have some opportunities for offense before the elite Dodgers bullpen enters the game.

Regardless of all the above, a Game 1 victory for New York on the road once again would set them up very well for this seven-game series. If this storybook run wants to continue, the Mets’ pitching staff will have an extremely strong task in quieting the elite bats of the Dodgers.

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