Asian Americans: A Minority Community With Huge Electoral Potential – Analysis

According to a poll published by Reuters/Ipsos on September 24, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump at the national level in the U.S. by a margin of 47% to 40%. While these results may be indicative of the overall picture, they don’t mean much due to the Electoral College. In key swing states that can be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate, Trump and Harris are tied, with differences falling within the margin of error. Every vote counts, including those of ethnic and racial minorities. Asian Americans—the fastest-growing minority community in the U.S.—will have a significant impact on the election.

A University of Chicago poll showed that Harris has a 38% lead among Asian Americans. 66% of them plan to vote for Harris, while only 28% for Trump, and 6% remain undecided. A similar trend can be seen in the vice-presidential candidates' ratings, with Tim Walz receiving 56% support compared to JD Vance, who has 21% of the Asian American vote. Harris enjoys a positive perception among 44% of Asian Americans, while 42% view her negatively. In Trump's case, 70% have a negative view of him, while only 28% view him positively. Polls also show that Democratic activists are more engaged with the Asian population than their Republican counterparts.

Asian American Support for Harris

Polls reveal that Kamala Harris fares much better among Asians than Joe Biden. A study conducted this spring by the American non-governmental organization tasked with educating Asian Americans, the Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS), showed that Biden had the support of 46% of the population, Trump 31%, while 23% were undecided. The numbers were similar in 2020. This shows that Harris has 20% more support than Biden. Why? Since there is no substantial political difference between Biden and Harris, with only minor nuances distinguishing them, Harris’ Asian heritage is the key factor attracting Asian Americans. As they consider her "one of their own," they are likely to give her the majority of their votes. This is not unexpected and has happened before, although it is somewhat bizarre that, deep into the 21st century, American voters largely vote based on ethnicity. In the 2008 and 2012 elections, Barack Obama received an overwhelming majority of Black votes, 95% and 93%, respectively.

It seems likely that Harris will replicate this in smaller numbers, given her diverse ethnic-racial background. Kamala's mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in India, in the state of Tamil Nadu. She emigrated to the U.S. for education, becoming a renowned scientist and breast cancer researcher. She belonged to the Tamil Hindu community and passed away in 2009. Kamala's father, Donald Harris, is an immigrant from Jamaica. He is an economic theorist and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University, with roots in the African-Caribbean community stemming from the African diaspora in the Caribbean. Kamala Harris, therefore, has both Indian and African-Caribbean heritage, making her the first presidential candidate of African American and South Asian descent in U.S. history. Regardless of the election outcome or whether Asian Americans will have a president from their background, it is undeniable that their political influence in the U.S. will continue to grow. This is evidenced by both the past and present.

The Course of History

Asian Americans are the fastest-growing and most diverse demographic group in the United States. They come from a wide range of countries, including China, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and others. The history of Asians in the U.S. is marked by struggles for acceptance, discrimination, but also achievements in social and economic spheres. The first waves of Asian immigrants to the U.S. were recorded in the mid-19th century when Chinese workers came to California to help build railroads, seek gold, and engage in entrepreneurial ventures. Although many hoped for a better life in the "Land of the Free," they soon faced a wave of discrimination. One of the most blatant examples of racial animosity toward Asians was the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which banned the arrival of Chinese immigrants, laying the legal groundwork for institutional discrimination.

A similar fate was experienced by Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos, and other Asian groups who later immigrated to the U.S. During World War II, many Japanese Americans were forcibly interned in camps within the U.S. due to paranoia about their loyalty, despite many being American citizens. This act, later recognized as a violation of human rights, symbolizes one of the darkest moments in Asian American history. However, after 1965, with the passage of the Immigration and Nationality Act, the U.S. opened its doors to more Asian immigrants, ushering in a new era of integration and demographic transformation. Immigrants came in large numbers from different parts of Asia, bringing with them rich and diverse cultural traditions, customs, and worldviews.

Economic Contributions

Asian Americans significantly contribute to the economic development of the U.S. Their impact is visible in entrepreneurship, the tech sector, education, and innovation. Asian Americans run a large number of small and medium-sized businesses. Specifically, they own over 2 million businesses, representing about 10% of all small businesses in the U.S. They employ millions of people and generate significant revenue. Additionally, they run successful restaurants, stores, and healthcare facilities, especially in large urban areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. They are among the most educated ethnic groups in the U.S. According to 2020 data, more than 54% of Asian Americans aged 25 and older hold a college degree, significantly higher than the national average of 38%.

This high level of education grants them access to well-paying jobs in sectors like technology, medicine, engineering, and finance. Roughly one in three tech workers in Silicon Valley is Asian. Their presence in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer science, and biotechnology is evident. Many have founded renowned tech companies, with some of the most famous entrepreneurs including Jerry Yang (founder of Yahoo), Steve Chen (co-founder of YouTube), and Jen-Hsun Huang (founder of Nvidia). Due to their ties to Asia, Asian Americans play a crucial role in connecting the U.S. economy with rapidly growing Asian markets. Many of them work to facilitate trade relations, investments, and technology transfers between the U.S. and countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Cultural Contributions

Asian Americans have significantly strengthened U.S. development in the cultural sphere. They are increasingly present in the American film and television industry. Films like "Crazy Rich Asians" (2018) and "Everything Everywhere All at Once" (2022) were not only commercially successful but also helped bring Asian-American stories to the forefront. Actors such as Henry Golding, Steven Yeun, and actresses Michelle Yeoh and Awkwafina have become international stars.

Asian Americans have a growing influence on the U.S. music industry, particularly through pop, hip hop, and indie genres. Artists like Bruno Mars (of Filipino and Puerto Rican descent) and Steve Aoki (of Japanese descent) have become globally recognized for their musical innovation. Asian-American writers and poets have enriched American literature with their perspectives on identity, migration, race, and intergenerational relations. Amy Tan and her novel "The Joy Luck Club" (1989) provided an excellent portrayal of the experiences of Chinese-American families and the challenges of living between two cultures. The book became an international bestseller and was later adapted into a film. Chinese, Japanese, Thai, Indian, Korean, and Vietnamese cuisine have become integral parts of American gastronomy. Asian philosophical and spiritual traditions have also found fertile ground in American society, particularly through Buddhism, Hinduism, and other Eastern philosophies.

Challenges and Problems

Despite their achievements, Asian Americans continue to face many challenges, with racism and stereotypes being among the most prominent. The "model minority" stereotype portrays them as highly successful, educated, and wealthy, which may seem positive but actually has harmful effects. This stereotype often ignores the reality that many Asians in the U.S. face economic hardships, language barriers, and social marginalization. For example, communities like the Hmong Americans, most of whom came as refugees from Laos, face high poverty rates and low education levels. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown how racial stereotypes can lead to violence. The rise in hate crimes against Asians, fueled by rhetoric that linked the pandemic to China, highlighted the dangers of racism. Asians became targets of verbal and physical attacks across the country, sparking a new wave of activism within the community. Additionally, the political representation of Asian Americans, although increasing, is still relatively low compared to their share of the population. While politicians like Kamala Harris and Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth (of Thai descent) have achieved national success, Asians remain underrepresented in many areas of political decision-making.

Concerns of Chinese Americans

Research shows that Chinese Americans are very concerned about their position in the US. A recent study conducted by the Chinese American non-governmental organization Committee of 100 and the University of Chicago, published in March, revealed the thoughts of Americans of Chinese descent. 54% of them believe that current U.S.-China relations have had a "somewhat negative" impact on the way they are treated. Another 10% of Chinese respondents said that the current environment has a "very negative" impact on their community. Only about 3% believe that current relations between Washington and Beijing have a positive impact on them.

More than 80% of Chinese Americans are "at least somewhat" concerned about the rhetoric used by presidential candidates when discussing U.S.-China relations, fearing that it could result in their discrimination. Trump's spokesperson (Chinese American) Steven Cheung did not comment on the findings but pointed out that the real threat to the U.S. is the Chinese Communist Party, which "uses spy balloons to monitor our country, buys American farmland, cripples our manufacturing industry, steals American intellectual property, and undermines our workers." Harris did not respond to the findings, but her administration issued a memorandum in 2021 condemning racist rhetoric targeting Asian Americans. Despite negative trends, most Chinese Americans remain optimistic about U.S.-China relations, believing that the two countries can cooperate in areas such as trade, student exchange, climate change, and preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

Demographics

According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau from 2020, there are a total of 22.4 million Asian Americans living in the U.S., making up about 7% of the total population. The Asian population includes people from various ethnic and national groups with origins across Asia. The largest group consists of Chinese (5.4 million), followed by Indians (4.6 million), Filipinos (4.2 million), Vietnamese (2.2 million), Koreans (1.9 million), Japanese (1.5 million), Pakistanis (600,000), Bangladeshis (400,000), Thais (300,000). A striking characteristic is that about 75% of Asians live in large metropolitan areas with over 2.5 million residents, mostly on the West or East Coast of the U.S. According to 2020 data, the states with the largest number of Asians are Hawaii (37%), California (17.8%), Washington (12%), Nevada (11.4%), New Jersey (11.3%), New York (10.8%), Virginia (8.8%), Alaska (8.4%), Massachusetts (8.3%), Maryland (8.1%), and Illinois (6.8%).

Political Preferences

Historically, Asian Americans were divided between the two main political parties. In the 1990s, many voted for Republicans due to their conservative stances on business, taxes, and immigration. However, in recent decades, there has been a shift toward the Democratic Party, particularly among younger generations. This trend became evident in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, when Asian Americans predominantly supported Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. The shift toward the Democratic Party can partly be explained by growing concerns about xenophobia and racism, especially during the pandemic, when Asian Americans faced a surge in hate crimes. Nevertheless, there are internal political differences among Asians. For instance, Vietnamese Americans have traditionally leaned toward the Republican Party, partly due to their anti-communist past and conservative social values. On the other hand, Indian, Chinese, and Korean Americans are more likely to support Democrats due to their positions on immigration, healthcare, and human rights.

Role in Swing States

Traditionally, Asian Americans were not known for being a politically engaged group compared to other ethnic communities such as African or Latino Americans. Reasons for this relative political passivity included language barriers, immigration status, and a focus on work and education instead of political activism. However, in the past decade, there has been a significant increase in political engagement. This change has been driven by higher education, economic progress, and the need to address growing racism. As an ethnic group, Asian Americans saw the largest increase in voter registration from January to June this year compared to the same period in 2020. For instance, in 2020, over 11 million Asian Americans were registered to vote. Their share of the electorate reached around 4% of the national voting body. This year, 15 million Asians will have the right to vote – about 6% of the electorate. This is significant, especially in tight races.

Asian Americans have considerable influence in swing states, where either a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate can win. The swing states with the largest percentage of Asians, where they could influence the final election outcome if they have a good turnout, include Nevada (11.4%), Georgia (5.3%), Arizona (4.9%), Colorado (4.9%), Pennsylvania (4.6%), North Carolina (4.1%), Michigan (4.1%), Florida (3.9%), and Wisconsin (3.7%). In these states, every vote can be crucial. Therefore, it is not surprising that Harris' campaign has intensified efforts in recent weeks to win over Asian American voters in states like North Carolina. In that state, Asian Americans make up 4.1% of the state's population, but they are growing rapidly. Between 2010 and 2020, the Asian-American population in the state grew by 68% to 450,000 people. A large percentage consists of Indians and Chinese. Democrat Jay Chaudhuri, of Bengali descent, became the first South Asian politician to be elected to the North Carolina Senate in 2016.

Research shows that three issues are most important to Asians: immigration, racial equality, and educational, healthcare, and economic progress. They value easier access to American citizenship and/or work visas for immigrants, protection from violence by other racial-ethnic groups, and access to affordable healthcare and tax breaks for the middle class. Given their priorities and their Asian heritage, it is logical that they lean more towards Harri. But if Trump's campaign manages to win over certain segments of the Asian-American population, it could greatly help him win key swing states like Arizona or Michigan.