Here are the states we could be waiting on to declare a Harris-Trump winner
Voters are increasingly likely to have to wait past Election Day to find out who will become their next president.
Among the battleground states, Georgia could be the first to be called, even as early as midnight, some experts predict. But other states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expected to have delays push past the calendar voting date, and unpredictable factors like multiple hurricanes in the Southeast could complicate things.
“This really is an ‘expect the unexpected’ sort of situation this time,” said Michael Hanmer, the director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland.
“Patience is going to be crucial for making sure that people who are running the election are able to do so in a way that ensures that they can get it right.”
Here are the states voters are most likely to be waiting on past Election Day:
Pennsylvania
Voters have become used to waiting on Pennsylvania ever since President Biden was declared the winner over former President Trump there following a days-long delay.
This year, the dead-heat between Trump and Vice President Harris in the Keystone State could foreshadow another slog to finding out who won. The biggest factor at play is a process called “early in-person” voting, which is a newer option for residents. These votes, which are effectively counted as absentee ballots, “will take some time along with the mail ballots,” said David Becker, an election lawyer and co-founder of the Center for Election and Innovation Research.
“Pennsylvania’s only had early absentee and no-excuse mail voting since 2020,” he said. “This is a fairly recent development for them.”
Becker predicted that election workers will be working around the clock and “reporting batches out as soon as they’ve got the batches done to be as transparent as possible.” There’s additional scrutiny because of the close margin last cycle, with Trump campaigning in Biden’s native Scranton this week.
“If it’s really close and there’s a lot of mail ballots, it could take some time,” Becker said.
Wisconsin
Voters can cast ballots in the Badger State via mail between Oct. 22 and Nov. 3, according to state law, which meets a desired need for more flexibility beyond the traditional early mail-in system.
But the window also comes with some tradeoffs, experts say. While election officials are expected to be in possession of many ballots prior to Tuesday’s election, they technically aren’t allowed to start counting and processing them until Nov. 5.
“Wisconsin and Pennsylvania among swing states are the exceptions,” said Becker. “They can’t begin processing those ballots until Election Day. That’s going to result in some delays.”
Election officials in Wisconsin have “begged” their state legislature to allow pre-processing of mail-in ballots, said Derek Tisler, counsel in Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. But until then, voters can expect a slower timeline.
That doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with the tabulation, Tisler stressed, and he cautioned against voters or candidates seizing on wait times anywhere in the country as a cause for concern.
“Election workers are following the same steps that they always have. Those steps look a little bit different depending on the state, because each state is able to set their own election procedures. They may take place on slightly different timelines,” he said.
“Of course, we all want results right away, but I think most people would agree that accuracy and security are the ultimate goals, and that is what election workers are prioritizing in these states.”
Arizona
In the Grand Canyon State, hundreds of thousands of mail ballots could be dropped off on Nov. 5, adding to the anticipation of what to expect on Election Day itself.
The state has “generous” provisions to help election officials start processing ballots ahead of time, said Rachel Orey, director of the Bipartisan Policy Center Elections Project. But pre-processing “can’t make a dent” in the big numbers of ballots that are expected to surge in on Election Day, she said, stretching out the tabulation process and raising the anticipation for delays.
Arizona might be “the one we’re ultimately waiting for,” said Lonna Atkenson, a political science professor at Florida State University.
Of course, a major factor across the several states to watch is how close the margins are between Harris and Trump. In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill have the rivals separated by a fraction of a percentage point.
“My crystal ball is, of course, going to be cloudy depending on how clear a picture we have on the competitiveness of the race,” said Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College.
“If the race is extremely close, across the country and in particular states, it's going to be pretty opaque, and it may be quite a while until we get clarity on the results,” he said.
North Carolina
The 2020 cycle faced complications over COVID-19, and this year, Hurricane Helene and possible subsequent storms have added another unpredictable natural disaster element.
During the pandemic, the race across the country saw longer wait times for results as officials dealt with a surge of mail-in ballots. This year, experts expect slightly lower numbers of mail votes, but it’s still hard to predict as early voting gets underway.
North Carolina has been battered by Hurricane Helene at the tail end of the cycle, and while officials have expressed confidence that they have systems in place to ensure voting runs on schedule, the storm’s damage risks complicating mail-in voting.
“That does not mean the election officials are not going to do the job that they need to to verify and process and count those,” Gronke said. “It just means that they may not have the resources in place to do it as rapidly as they might want to and get those results by 8pm on election night.”
The state is “a big question mark,” Becker added, “mainly because there are going to be legitimate challenges for election officials in those western North Carolina counties that they’re still navigating. They’re going to do the best they can but the election is very close and it probably will be.”
“We’ve all got to have some grace with how long it might take them,” he said.
Nevada
In Nevada, the margins weren’t particularly close last cycle by battleground standards — Biden won by roughly 3 percentage points.
But the fact that the state mainly votes by mail raises the possibility of counting taking longer than expected.
Both Harris and Trump have made the Silver State a target. Progressives who make up a sizable portion of voters there have reportedly warmed to Harris, while her running mate Tim Walz made an appearance in Reno this week.
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, is targeting the same city, with the former president scheduled to host a rally on Friday.
“Nevada might be into Wednesday,” Becker said.
Plus, Nevada and its neighbor Arizona are also both to the west of other closely watched states, meaning their polls will close after East Coast states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Georgia
Georgia remains critical to both candidates’ paths to 270 electoral votes, and, as was the case in 2020, it’s more difficult for Trump to lock up a clear path to winning the White House without it.
But Americans may have a reason to be optimistic about the map’s newer swing state. Strategists expect it to be called early in the battleground lineup, possibly even before any other close contest.
“Georgia’s probably going to be the first one of the swing states to be able to be called, barring an incredibly narrow margin,” said Becker.
“They have very good policies in place. They’re going to have a lot of early voting and in-person voting. The percentage of mail ballots in Georgia will probably drop back down to about 10 percent give or take. And they will pre-process them.”
“I think we will have a pretty good reporting from Georgia by maybe midnight on Election Night,” he said.