The U.S. and Israel’s Path to Supporting the Iranian People’s Aspirations
Seismic shifts are underway in Iran, raising concerns that Tehran might be testing weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile, political tectonic plates are shifting across the Middle East. Israel continues to strike Hezbollah in Beirut’s Dahiya neighborhood, and the Israel Defense Forces are pursuing hostages taken by Hamas in Gaza. Iran’s two largest proxies are facing significant pressure, and Arab nations fear the outbreak of an all-out regional war. As one Arab diplomat described it, “the misery of Yemen spread over 634,000 square kilometers.” In response, Israel is weighing military options within Iran, while the Biden administration warns that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could provoke a dangerous escalation.
Given Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and recent missile strikes, the possibility of preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites looms large. Iran’s supreme leader has endorsed attacks on Israel, praising Hezbollah and Hamas and suggesting that, with nuclear weapons, Iran might not hesitate to use them against its enemies. Yet, military strikes alone cannot resolve the broader strategic challenge Iran presents. Iran’s power lies not only in its military capabilities but also in its ability to project influence through proxies and internal repression. To counter this, the United States and Israel must adopt a broader, multifaceted approach.
Instead of relying solely on military action, Israel and the United States should combine intelligence operations and ideological strategies to weaken the regime from within. This could include cyber operations targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, as well as media campaigns aimed at undermining the regime’s ideological narrative in both Iran and the broader Arab-speaking world.
Beyond Military Solutions: The Power of Intelligence and Ideology
CIA director William Burns recently underscored the importance of intelligence cooperation between the CIA and Israel’s Mossad in countering Iran. He praised Mossad chief David Barnea as a valuable partner. Burns highlighted that groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are not just military entities—they are ideological movements. Countering them, he said, requires more than military victories; it requires offering a “better idea.” This applies even more to Iran.
The Iranian regime maintains power not only through military strength but through the suppression of internal dissent and the promotion of a narrative that resonates with its domestic base and regional allies. Countering this requires more than covert operations—it calls for an alternative vision that appeals to the Iranian people. The United States and Israel can support civil society groups, student organizations, and grassroots movements to advocate for political change within Iran.
Leveraging Internal Unrest
Iran’s internal unrest is a vulnerability. Economic mismanagement and rampant inflation have led to widespread dissatisfaction, even among once-apolitical Iranians. While the regime has stifled protests in the past, such as the 2009 Green Movement and the 2019–2020 demonstrations, dissatisfaction is growing. This presents an opportunity for the United States and Israel to provide crucial support to these pro-democracy movements. By supplying secure communication technologies and logistical backing, the CIA and Mossad can help these groups evade state surveillance and organize more effectively. Key constituencies like trade unions, student groups, and ethnic minorities could play a pivotal role in destabilizing the regime. Rather than seeking to overthrow the regime through force, the goal should be to empower Iranians to take control of their future.
Exposing Corruption and Human Rights Abuses
Another critical element of weakening the regime is exposing its corruption and human rights abuses. The Iranian government’s violent crackdowns on peaceful protests, alongside its financial corruption—lavish lifestyles funded by the public’s hardship—are eroding its legitimacy. Highlighting the regime’s hidden wealth, vacation homes, and luxury living, along with concrete evidence of human rights violations, would bolster the case for stronger international sanctions and delegitimize the regime in the eyes of its own people. Intelligence agencies could reveal this evidence to both international audiences and Iran’s domestic population, pushing for increased global pressure on Tehran while fueling internal dissent.
Targeting Iran’s Economic Weaknesses
The Iranian economy, already battered by years of sanctions and internal corruption, is another pressure point. The United States and Israel should focus on weakening key state-controlled industries that fund the regime’s military and intelligence operations. Cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, such as oil refineries or banking systems, could deepen the regime’s economic woes, forcing it to divert resources away from foreign adventures and internal repression. While political change in Iran won’t happen overnight, history shows that economic crises often pave the way for revolutionary movements. A well-coordinated economic strategy, combined with cyber warfare, could exacerbate existing frustrations and encourage the Iranian people to push for change.
Offering a Vision of a Better Future
Ultimately, the United States and Israel must promote a positive vision for Iran’s future—one that aligns with the aspirations of its people. Intellectuals, business leaders, and civil society must be at the forefront of this effort, discussing what a democratic, prosperous Iran could look like. Imagine the potential for U.S. and Israeli investment in a peaceful Iran—developing infrastructure, providing reliable electricity, creating jobs, and fostering entrepreneurship in a thriving economy. The Iranian people deserve a future of democracy, prosperity, and dignity, not the repression and economic hardships they currently endure. By offering a concrete alternative to the current regime, the United States and Israel can help empower Iranians to take control of their destiny.
The path to a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East begins with addressing the challenge Iran poses—not only through military action but through intelligence, ideological warfare, and economic pressure.
By supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people, the U.S. and Israel can help bring about the change that is so desperately needed.
Ahmed Charai is the Publisher of the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune and serves on the boards of directors of the Atlantic Council, the International Crisis Group, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and the Center for the National Interest.
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