Mike Johnson stumps for Scott Perry as he slips in polls

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson attended a Mechanicsburg fundraiser for U.S. Rep. Scott Perry (R-10th District) Friday as the former Freedom Caucus chair faces what may be his toughest reelection challenge since taking office in 2013.

A spokesperson for Perry’s campaign, Matt Beynon, did not say how much attendees donated to share a meal with Johnson and Perry but said “they’re very generous voters.” He estimated around 90 people attended.

“We have a really important Republican delegation down in this state,” Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told a gaggle of reporters, who were relegated to a side room of the restaurant where the event was held. “One of the most important members of Congress from my perspective, and the perspective of my colleagues, is Scott Perry.”

The show of support from Johnson comes as the most recent polls find Perry trailing his Democratic opponent, Janelle Stelson. And campaign finance filings show he is being outraised as well.

“That is a sign that the Republicans are deeply concerned about this race,” said Alison Dagnes, a professor of political science at Shippensburg University. “They would not waste leadership time, effort, money, etc. on something they were not concerned about.”

But Johnson and Perry both dismissed the unfavorable polls.

“These polls at this time are meant to drive opinion, not reflect opinion,” Perry said. “The poll that the speaker and I are most interested in is going to happen next month,” he added, referring to the election.

An August poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Stelson leading Perry by a single point, within its margin of error. But the most recent poll, which was privately commissioned and conducted by Susquehanna Polling, found Perry trailing Stelson by nearly 10 points, with a five point margin of error. Stelson also had significantly higher favorability ratings than Perry — 40% to 27%. Dagnes noted that congressional polling can often be less accurate than national polls, since there are fewer of them and samples are typically smaller.

‘He is who he is’

Perry’s apparent slipping support is due to a number of factors, but multiple local analysts made note of his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

“He’s gotten a lot of negative attention since 2020,” said Dan Mallinson, associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg. “His involvement in 2020 and trying to overturn the [election] results here in Pennsylvania, all the subsequent information that was released in the investigation into his post-election activity, the FBI taking his phone … There’s just been a lot of negative attention to a candidate.”

Perry was a booster of conspiracy theories alleging fraud in the 2020 election and voted against certifying the results in Pennsylvania. After Jan. 6, he was investigated by the FBI for his alleged role in organizing attempts to undermine the election. Information from that investigation, as well as that of the congressional Jan. 6 committee, has trickled out in the years since.

At a recent debate with Stelson, Perry did not directly answer a question about whether the upcoming election would be fair, and at another point said that the post office shredded ballots in 2020.

The fundraiser with Johnson was held only days after Perry signed onto a lawsuit demanding the state impose stricter voter ID requirements on overseas voters, including members of the military. The complaint, filed on behalf of six Pennsylvania Republican congressmen, asks the state to segregate overseas ballots until the voters who cast them can verify their identities.

“He is who he is,” Mallinson said. “I don’t think he’s the kind of politician who loosens his positions around trying to meet the moment.”

Perry, a retired Army brigadier general, said the lawsuit was intended to prevent foreign interference.

“What we’re trying to do is ensure the overseas votes for military veterans aren’t abused by people in foreign countries like Iran who have openly talked about and openly targeted hacking into our election process for overseas votes,” Perry said.

The Pennsylvania Department of State pushed back and accused Perry of trying to frighten or disenfranchise military voters.

“This lawsuit is nothing more than an attempt to confuse and frighten people ahead of an important election,” the Department of State said in a statement. “Ballots cast by ineligible voters occur at extremely low rates and are routinely investigated and prosecuted by the appropriate authorities when they occur.”

Asked about the possibility of military votes being thrown out or discounted due to the lawsuit, Perry said, “if we just follow the law, then everything will be OK. It’s unfortunate that we have to ask our government or demand that our government follow its law.”

But according to the Department of State, Pennsylvania law has an exemption to voter ID requirements for overseas voters. And a federal law, signed by Republican President Ronald Raegan, which was designed to ensure military members could vote, does not require it either.

“It’s interesting to me that the parties to this lawsuit are lawmakers in the majority,” Ari Mittleman, the executive director of Keep Our Republic, a non-partisan group that studies election threats and conducts civic education around voting issues. “They’ve been in the majority for some time. This law could have been examined through committee hearings or through floor action.”

Asked whether he would attempt to alter the Uniformed and Overseas Citizen Voting Act, Perry demurred.

“We’ve got a lot of work to do,” said Perry, who serves on House intelligence and foreign affairs committees. “There are a lot of problems across the country, and America’s just been holding its breath for the last four years hoping that this nightmare will end.”

Stelson’s campaign has sought to paint Perry as extreme and has plastered the 10th district with ads. The tactic apparently caught Republicans’ attention. Johnson attributed Perry’s falling favorability to Stelson’s campaign “carpet bombing him with negative ads trying to assault the character of a man who has served his country valiantly for 40 years.”

In a statement to the Capital-Star, Stelson’s campaign said “Perry voted against health care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits, voted against housing for homeless veterans and is now trying to throw out the votes of the men and women who serve our country overseas. This kind of extremism is exactly what’s wrong with Washington and Central Pennsylvanians are tired of it.”

A changing landscape.

Jim Lee, the president of Susquehanna Polling, noted that the 10th District’s demographics have been changing .

While much of Pennsylvania is losing population, the city of York and Cumberland County — significant parts of Perry’s district — have been growing.

“The growth patterns are such that the people moving into northern York and the Camp Hill, west shore, Cumberland County area, they’re moderate, in my opinion,” Lee said. “I don’t think they’re red ruby Republicans on social issues.”

And the political landscape around social issues has changed as well, especially since Roe v. Wade was overturned with the Dobbs decision in 2022.

At a recent debate with Stelson, Perry dodged a question on whether he would continue to support a national abortion ban.

“I oppose taxpayer-funded abortions, but I make exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, and that has never changed,” Perry said.

But Perry isn’t the only Republican hurting in the 10th District. The Susquehanna poll also found Trump trailing Harris by four points, within the poll’s margin of error.

In 2020, Trump beat Biden by four points in the district, according to Lee. Information compiled by the Daily Kos shows similar results.

“If Trump can’t win the 10th congressional, how’s he gonna win the state?” Lee said. “He’s gotta at least match his 2020 numbers, if not do a little bit better if he’s gonna offset the shellacking he’s gonna get in the Southeast.”

Ultimately, though, Lee, like Mallinson, thinks Perry’s political fortunes may rise or fall based on his own decisions.

“I think he’s being true to himself,” Lee said.

Pennsylvania Capital-Star is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Pennsylvania Capital-Star maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Kim Lyons for questions: info@penncapital-star.com. Follow Pennsylvania Capital-Star on Facebook and X.