An Eye on AI: Five New Things to Watch in October

Nearly two years after the first release of ChatGPT, the big artificial intelligence updates have — for the moment — assumed a predictable cycle. Every six months or so, a new program number or name is announced, showcasing another impressive application or human-like behavior. In some ways, it’s the opposite of the old Hemingway quote: how did AI change the world? Suddenly, and then gradually.

New and Improved?

Of course, the key phrase is for the moment; no one knows when the next round of “suddenly” might arrive. This October, here are five changes worth watching.

• The new number. OpenAI, creators of ChatGPT, have released initial access to their newest generative AI model. The program is called “OpenAI o1” (or, less formally, “Strawberry”) — a move away from the previous “ChatGPT [number]” naming convention. It’s worth remembering that GPT stands for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer,” which describes a particular kind of machine-learning structure; the change in names may indicate that OpenAI are exploring different kinds of learning models.The stand-out feature for o1 is its use of time. Earlier ChatGPT models rely on singular models trained beforehand, with each user query passed into the model and producing a single final result. The quality of the answer, then, depends on how thoroughly the model was trained, but not how long it spends working on this particular problem.With o1, however, the program constructs a “chain of thought” before giving an answer. The longer it is given to work, the more it can refine that reasoning and (in theory) the better the final answer. So far, o1 appears to be performing significantly better than its predecessors on math and science tests, solving 83 percent of the problems on a Math Olympiad exam (compared with 13 percent for ChatGPT-4o).

• Totaled Recall. In May, Microsoft announced an AI feature named “Recall” for its Copilot+ line of computers. The program’s concept was straightforward, but off-putting: every few seconds, Recall would save an image of your computer’s current display — say, a picture of your web browser while you were searching for new pants. The photos would be saved long-term; you could ask about your earlier activity (“Where did I see those jeans last month?”), and Recall’s AI model would search the images for suggestions (“At such-and-such Amazon link”).The plan raised fairly obvious concerns — could a user’s personal information be captured in a snapshot? What about photos of proprietary or work-related files? What rights would Microsoft have to the AI trained on such information? The software giant initially paused Recall’s rollout in response to objections from privacy groups, but they now plan to release the program in November 2024. For the time being, Recall will be “opt-in” rather than “opt-out” as previously planned, but the company has a history of gradually making such features mandatory.
• “We recommend Elmer’s.” For some months, Google has placed AI-generated responses as the first reply to many search queries. In principle, an AI could provide clear, targeted replies that summarize various answers from the web. In practice, the genAI results are frustratingly slow, hiding normal web results behind a loading screen. Worse, they are sometimes disastrously inaccurate; one infamous result suggested improving your pizza sauce by adding glue.Going forward, the AI will also include brand-name recommendations in its suggestions. (Perhaps it will suggest which glue to use in pizza sauce.) This new advertising push follows years of customer complaints that Google search results are increasingly useless, broken by optimization tricks or a prioritization of ad revenue over utility. For now, at least, unhappy users can adjust their searches to avoid AI altogether.
• Meta goes loud. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has announced a new AI model that can produce video clips with matching audio; one sample clip matched a rock theme to the revving of a dune buggy. The company currently claims to have no plans to release the technology for general use, instead working directly with entertainment companies to create AI-generated movies. The film studio Lionsgate has already partnered with rival AI developer Runway to pursue similar projects.

• Helene’s legacy. Tropical Storm Helene killed more than two hundred people and left millions more without homes or power. Now, a report suggests the storm may also wreak havoc on the semiconductor industry. The small town of Spruce Pine in North Carolina produces the world’s highest-quality quartz crystals; the crystals are used in computer chips needed by — among others — ever-growing AI systems. All excavation in the town is currently shut down, as locals assess the damage to the mining sites, the railroads that carry the crystals, and the people who work them. An extended pause could cause “another crisis” in chip manufacture, following similar shortages during the pandemic.

Overall, the focus seems to be on adaptation: probing weaknesses in existing models (as with OpenAI), or exploring new uses (for Microsoft, Google, and Meta). Time will tell which billion-dollar gambles pay off.

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