How the presidential race can show which candidate for U.S. Senate will win in Ohio

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- The 2024 election has come with twists and turns from the very beginning. Now, just over three weeks until election day, pollsters are trying to get insight on how it’s all going to shake out.

"We're in just such a no man's land like we've never been here before," Republican strategist Bobb Clegg said.

"[Polls] are a snapshot in time. So, things change on a daily basis," Democratic strategist Brian Rothenberg said.

Polling shows Ohioans will likely vote for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris this fall. Clegg and Rothenberg agree that is likely, though Clegg said he is “going to win by around 12%,” meanwhile Rothenberg thinks it be by will be “less than people expect.”

The toss up race this fall, though, is the race for U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is vying for his fourth term, challenged by Republican businessman Bernie Moreno.

"It's a really, really close race," Clegg said.

Earlier in this election cycle, Brown was leading by about six or seven points in polls. Now, as we get closer to Election Day the margins are tighter at about three or four points. Clegg and Rothenberg agreed, the race tightening was not unexpected.

"When you saw the polls during spring and summer that showed Sherrod up by what, seven, eight points, you knew that was going to close," Clegg said. "Because, I mean, so many people didn't know anything about Bernie Moreno."

In order for Brown to win this year, Clegg and Rothenberg said that there has to be some amount of split ticket voting.

"Sherrod Brown has always known that he has to win in this state," Rothenberg said. "And to win in the state, you have to transcend party and politics. And so that's why he's always been sort of a working families type senator."

"That's going to be a big hurdle," Clegg said. "I don't know how Trump people are going to think, ‘Yeah, I'm going to vote for President Trump because I really want him back in office, but I'm also going to vote for this guy that tried to convict him twice.'"

But the experts said the presidential race could also be an indicator of who comes out on top in the U.S. Senate contest.

"I think if President Trump carries Ohio by less than 5%, I think Sherrod Brown has got a really good shot at keeping his seat. I think if President Trump wins Ohio by more than 10%, I think Sherrod is going to have a really hard time," Clegg said. "The closer to five the more likely [Sherrod] is going to get reelected. The closer to ten, it's more likely he's not going to get reelected."

"There's a six or seven point difference between [Sherrod] and [Trump] in almost every poll," Rothenberg said. "So, at this late point in the race, it seems like he's solidified a lot of votes that are going to be split ticket. It’s not unusual in Ohio."

Issue 1 is the only statewide ballot initiative this fall, it would give power to citizens to draw district maps instead of elected officials. One recent polls show more than 60% of voters are likely to support it, and another poll shows 69% of Ohioans oppose the idea of gerrymandering. Rothenberg said that is notable, but Issue 1’s passage cannot be taken to the bank quite yet.

"You can never take anything for granted," Rothenberg said. "But when you look at those numbers and you look at how much money the opposition to issue one has, it's a very good number for that ‘yes,’ vote."

Early voting started on Tuesday and will continue for the next three weeks until Election Day on Nov. 5.