Oscar Experts Typing: Breaking down the open Best Supporting Actress category (apart from Zoe Saldaña)

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Supporting Actress, a category that has a solid frontrunner but could be filled out in multiple ways.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Fall is in the air here in the tri-state area and the New York Film Festival closed this week with the U.S. premiere of Steve McQueen’s “Blitz,” the war drama that had many hopedicting a nomination for Saoirse Ronan in Best Supporting Actress. We saw the film a few weeks ago and while I pulled a “me” — immediately putting Ronan into my field by dropping another more likely contender — we’re both in the camp that “Blitz” is more of a Best Picture play and less of an acting threat. As such, we’ve got Ronan on the outside (you, to your credit, never even had her in once her category placement was confirmed). That sets us somewhat apart from the herd, as does our embrace of Selena Gomez. The “Only Murders in the Building” star is, arguably, the “heart and soul” of “Emilia Pérez,” a film that most expect to be one of the most decorated movies at the Oscars. In a category that isn’t afraid of double nominees, Gomez feels pretty secure to me, even with her co-star Zoe Saldaña all but expected to win. Saldana feels as inevitable as Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Ariana DeBose — and while I don’t think the “Avatar” actress will earn as many top critics group citations as Randolph was able to snag, her domination of the televised ceremonies and industry honors feels certain. So double “Emilia Perez,” Danielle Deadwyler as an undeniable force in “The Piano Lesson” (even as a potential lone nominee), and Felicity Jones as a former nominee making good again in “The Brutalist.” (Pause here to acknowledge I’ve wavered on Jones, who feels like she could miss because that’s not anyone’s favorite performance in the film, but she also feels likely because she’s got The Scene that many will remember.) Those four actresses are, in my mind, fairly secure. That leaves the final spot for Isabella Rossellini from “Conclave.” She’s never been nominated, everyone loves her, and while Rossellini isn’t in the Edward Berger drama very much, she’s got the film’s most memorable moment. That feels like enough for her to make it in, leaving Ronan, the three daughters of “His Three Daughters” (Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen), Ariana Grande for “Wicked,” and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for “Nickel Boys” without Oscar recognition. Of that group, Ellis-Taylor is still widely predicted among Gold Derby users. I don’t see it happening because the POV filmmaking that makes “Nickel Boys” such an artistic endeavor doesn’t really do favors to the actors, however good they might be. But she’s also a past nominee with a couple of emotional scenes. Do you think I’m too soft on Ellis-Taylor and should I have her in my picks?

joyceeng: I haven’t had Ellis-Taylor in a while, and after having seen “Nickel Boys,” I’m not particularly compelled to put her back in, as good as she is in her limited screen time. But “limited” is also applicable for, as you’ve said, how the actors are affected by the single POV style. Even if she does get in at the Oscars, I feel confident that she will miss a SAG nomination, just like she inexplicably did for “King Richard.” This category feels, uh, soft, so you certainly can’t rule anyone out completely. I’ve never had Ronan in, but that doesn’t mean I won’t ever have her in. She’s quite lovely and moving in her first role as a mother — and sings! — but I also never felt like the performance soared. That obviously doesn’t matter since I’m not a voter, and I can see “Blitz” playing well with the middlebrow crowd, but she might not inspire a lot of No. 1 votes. She’s pound for pound better in “The Outrun” in my book. Rossellini would be a coattail if “Conclave” is a top five film. She also has limited screen time, but her big scene is explosive, like Jones’. It also feels like she’s been front and center of the “Conclave” campaign more so than Ralph Fiennes is, or at least she’s done the most press and is lining up tributes left and right. How would you, campaign connoisseur, rate her campaign thus far? I can’t believe you didn’t mention our girl Toni Collette from our impending fave “Juror #2.” She’s eighth in the odds, two spots higher than Lyonne, whom some had discussed winning this category once upon a time.

SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Blitz’ reactions and our first below-the-line Oscar predictions

Christopher Rosen: I’m loving the Rossellini campaign so far, but no one — not even that screen legend — has done a better job than Selena Gomez. She’s this year’s Jamie Lee Curtis or America Ferrera, two other actresses from top Best Picture contenders the predictions slept on for months before they made it into the final five. I expect a similar story to play out there. Collette is a wild card for sure: She looks like a borderline lead in “Juror #2,” at least judging from the trailer, and there’s precedent for her to get in for a Clint Eastwood movie that underwhelms otherwise — see: Kathy Bates. That year, Bates made it in, presumably over Jennifer Lopez, who would’ve been a lone nominee. I hate to type this into existence, but that kind of feels like what could happen to Deadwyler. She’s the people’s favorite right now and not just deserving of a nomination for her performance in “The Piano Lesson” but also because the Academy missed her for “Till.” I think her work in “The Piano Lesson” could inspire more passion than most of these performances… but then again I also thought that “Till” would get her plenty of No. 1s. If “Juror #2” is the movie movie its trailer promises, and Collette is chewing scenery as the prosecutor, I think she’s very much in play — and could force out someone like Deadwyler, the only contender here without a strong Best Picture behind her. As for the three daughters, Lyonne is great — and people are still talking about her in some circles. Maybe she’s a Gotham Award winner? Or does she get the New York Film Critics Circle hometown boost and win there? It seems possible, but I preferred Coon in the movie and I wouldn’t be surprised if, when push came to shove, the industry did as well?

joyceeng: I fear they might not even remember it. It’s been streaming on Netflix for three weeks now and the buzz has been very, very, very quiet. Deadwyler could certainly hit most precursors again (reminder she was also snubbed by the Globes for “Till”) and miss for someone in a stronger film. It would not be unlike Ruth Negga getting left out for another Netflix film, “Passing,” for which she also would’ve been a lone nominee. She missed for, presumably, Jessie Buckley, who was also in a Netflix title, “The Lost Daughter,” which failed to hit Best Picture but was stronger with Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay noms. “Till” was also probably under-seen and Deadwyler probably won’t have that issue with “The Piano Lesson” being on Netflix. It’s just a matter if voters responding to it. Since the “A Complete Unknown” trailer dropped this week, what of Elle Fanning, someone I once had in and don’t remember doing it? Monica Barbaro popped more in the trailer, but it’s also a trailer.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Assessing the A24-heavy Best Actor field

Christopher Rosen: I always leaned more Barbaro than Fanning, not only because Barbaro almost stole scenes from Tom Cruise and tha god Glen Powell in “Top Gun: Maverick.” She’s playing Joan Baez and while that isn’t a Joan Baez biopic, she’s gotta have a leg up on Fanning, who is playing a composite character. Look, I wanted “A Complete Unknown” to full-stop rule, so I’d be in the tank for her if and when that comes to pass. It’s easy to imagine her getting in too because Chalamet remains a strong bet for an acting nomination. No disrespect to many other worthy names — including Joan Chen for “Didi,” Margaret Qualley for “The Substance,” and Lady Gaga for “Joker: Folie à Deux” (lol but really she’s good) — I did want to bring up two international actresses who, I believe, people are sleeping on. The first is Leonie Benesch for “September 5” as the German translator-turned-field reporter. She really popped for me in that film and carries a lot of the thematic weight of the project. I could see her making a run, especially if “September 5” finally moves away from its online designation as the pundits’ fave. Then there’s Fernanda Montenegro for “I’m Still Here.” That’s a Sony Pictures Classics release and it wouldn’t it be like them to sneak a former Oscar nominee into this race in the 11th hour.

joyceeng: That’d be so fire, even more so if SPC can work its magic for her daughter, Fernanda Torres, in Best Actress. We love a mother-daughter narrative. I loved Benesch in “September 5” and she’s definitely the “heart and soul” of that movie. This time two years ago, we all had “Women Talking” snagging double noms and it ended up being “Everything Everywhere All at Once” doing so. I do think “Emilia Pérez” could provide the stability of two nominees in a race that could serve maximum chaos in terms of nominations — and I pray to the awards gods that it does.