USC vs. No. 4 Penn State: Who has the edge?
USC vs. No. 4 Penn State
When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
Where:Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
TV/radio: CBS (Ch. 2)/710 AM
Records: USC 3-2 (1-2 Big Ten), Penn State 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten)
Line: Penn State by 3.5
Notable injuries
USC: DOUBTFUL: LB Eric Gentry (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: CB Jacobe Covington (undisclosed), TE Lake McRee (leg); PROBABLE: DL Anthony Lucas (undisclosed)
Penn State: OUT: RB Cam Wallace (undisclosed), S Kevin Winston Jr. (undisclosed); PROBABLE: RB Nick Singleton (undisclosed), RT Anthony Donkoh (undisclosed)
What’s at stake? Boy. What’s not at stake here for USC? Coming off last week’s disappointing loss in Minnesota, Lincoln Riley has dug his heels into the stance that these Trojans are two plays away from entering this matchup 5-0, and he’s certainly not wrong.
“We’re still a very confident team,” Riley told media Thursday. “This isn’t some team that has two losses where we got our ass kicked. No, that’s not the case.”
“We know what we’re capable of,” he continued, “and we know that we’ve got a really good opponent and a phenomenal opportunity coming up here Saturday in the Coliseum.”
But as fans’ impatience grows, and the scrutiny on Riley has intensified more than ever in his three years at USC, that “phenomenal opportunity” has become a dire one for USC. This Penn State matchup loomed large as the most critical matchup on the Trojans’ schedule long before they hit this stretch of two losses in three games – which Riley didn’t agree with terming a “slump” when asked by a reporter Thursday – and now stands as USC’s last hope of any pathway to a College Football Playoff.
Win, and USC can reassert itself to a claim Riley made at the Big Ten media days before the season: “We’re at the top of the Big Ten Conference.” Lose, and it’ll continue to open conversations about the program’s direction under Riley.
Who’s better? Penn State’s offensive output has been propped up by a few nonconference cakewalks, but it still boasts a threatening run-heavy attack, made more fearsome if Singleton – who’s run for 408 yards in four games – is cleared. USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, too, asserted Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar “has the strongest arm of anyone we’ve played so far,” a junior who’s thrown nine touchdowns and just one interception through five games.
USC arguably boasts a more diverse offensive attack on paper. But Minnesota’s defense slowed Riley’s fast-paced attack to a crawl last week, and Penn State’s unit is even more fearsome, currently ranked fourth in the nation in yards allowed per game. There’s more sure-thing talent on the Nittany Lions’ defense, from hard-hitting safety Jaylen Reed to defensive tackle Zane Durant, than anywhere on USC’s roster. Advantage Penn State, slightly.
Matchup to watch: USC’s Woody Marks vs. Penn State’s run defense. The Nittany Lions have a number of run-stuffers, particularly in Reed (33 tackles) and Durant (five tackles for loss), and rank fourth in the country in opposing yards-per-carry (2.5).
When Marks left Mississippi State for the portal this offseason, he came to USC in search of a bell-cow role, trying to prove he could thrive consistently as a runner. He’s done that and more in 2024, racking up 468 yards in five games. Saturday will present his most important effort yet.
“I proved a little bit, I’ve showed a little bit,” Marks said Tuesday, “but I haven’t really established, like, a dominant game yet.”
USC wins if: Marks rushes for 150-plus yards, the lofty “standard” he said he held himself to Tuesday … Lynn’s defense can hold Penn State to less than five yards a carry … quarterback Miller Moss goes turnover-free.
Prediction: USC 27, Penn State 24. Going against Vegas here. Big Ten teams are 1-8 when playing at least two time zones away from their own campus, and if a clearly improved USC culture shows up Saturday, it’s easy to see these Trojans making enough plays for an upset victory.