Why Bears GM Ryan Poles should view Jaguars as a cautionary tale
LONDON — Ryan Poles remembers not seeing many Chiefs logos when he traveled early in his career. Once he helped draft Patrick Mahomes as a member of their front office, that changed.
“Now you see it everywhere,” the Bears general manager said this week. “We want to be on that same path.”
The Bears would rather be the Chiefs than the team whose logo is most familiar to Londoners: the Jaguars, their opponent Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the unofficial home team of England. In the last two-and-a-half years — Poles’ tenure — the Jaguars spent their way to the middle.
Only nine of the 59 player drafted under Jaguars owner Shad Khan had received second contracts as of March 2022. To fill their many holes, the Jaguars then decided to spend the most money in the history of free agency. They dropped a record $260 million on seven players in 2022: receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram, guard Brandon Scherff, cornerback Darious Williams, defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi and linebacker Foye Olukun,
Then, in June, they signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, to a five-year, $275 million contract extension. It’s the second-most expensive contract in the NFL by total dollars and is tied for second in average annual value.
The result of all that spending: mediocrity.
Lawrence has a career passer rating of 85.3, which is lower than that of his backup Mac Jones, and has thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL during that time.
The Jaguars won a playoff game in 2022, went 9-8 last year and are 1-4 this season. Since their free-agent splash, the Jaguars are 19-20 and have outscored their opponents by 14 total points.
For a franchise that had gone 15-50 the four years beforehand, a jump to average is the most embarrassing form of accomplishment. But the Jaguars haven’t gotten over the hump — and might never.
Poles needs to pay attention. The renovation that he began when he took over as general manager before the 2022 season can’t stop until he has the most expensive house on the block.
For Poles to succeed where previous GMs have failed, the Bears must do more than vault from terrible to mediocre. Ryan Pace won 12 games but couldn’t sustain it. Phil Emery won 10, fired Lovie Smith because of it, and never had a winning record again.
Sustainability starts with their own No. 1 pick, quarterback Caleb Williams — who calls his GM “Chef Poles” — rising above what Lawrence has accomplished. Williams’ ascension is the simplest way for the Bears to surge to where they want to be. He looks the part— he’s thrown for the 38th-most yards of any quarterback, ever, through his first five games.
The next step is to draft well. Poles will have a chance to take swings on at least three starters in April, when the Bears have the Panthers’ second-round pick in addition to their own.
He needs to nail those picks. Since 2022, the Jaguars have used the No. 1 overall pick on defensive end Travon Walker, who is Pro Football Focus’ 42nd-ranked edge rusher, the No. 20 pick on tackle Anton Harrison (61, per PFF) and the No. 23 pick on receiver Brian Thomas (16). Thomas may turn out to be a star — he has catches of 66 and 85 yards this season — but the other two appear to be run-of-the-mill starters.
The Bears have the 11th-most salary cap room in 2025 and ninth-most in 2026. By then, Poles will be able to use that money to extend some of his draft picks — provided they’ve proven worthy of a second contract.
It would be better than the alternative — record spending, begetting nothing.