Ohio State-Oregon — a Big Ten spectacular — leads college football Week 7 picks
The Big Ten could expand with the Bears, the Packers, FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Drake and Kendrick Lamar and still nothing would quite match Michigan-Ohio State on the rivalry scale.
You’re not really going to argue with that, are you? Good.
Still, in this college football world where traditions are being trampled left and right in the pursuit of TV billions, No. 2 Ohio State (-3½) at No. 3 Oregon (6:30 p.m., NBC 5) sure has a Big Ten game-of-the-year kind of feel to it. A rivalry? Not at all; not yet. Conference supremacy on the line? Sure, in case that means anything anymore. College Football Playoff implications? Yes, enormously so.
The Buckeyes and the Ducks are two of only nine unbeaten Power 4 teams left this season. The college football world is on edge for this game, which, one supposes, only makes it easier for the Big Ten to crow that expansion has been a good thing and not merely an audacious money grab.
But you didn’t come here for preachy cynicism, did you? Let’s get on with the football, then, starting with this nugget: Big Ten teams are 1-8 this season when crossing more than one time zone on a road trip. Does that signal danger for the Buckeyes?
“We’re going to stay on East Coast time,” coach Ryan Day said early in the week, “and I think we’ve got a good plan.”
It must be easy to feel good about game plans when your defense is No. 1 nationally in points (6.8 per game) and yards (202.4) allowed, when it stops the run (72.6) and the pass (129.8) with equal unyieldingness, and when your offense is a top 10 unit, too. Heading into the season, Pro Football Focus ranked the Buckeyes at the top of the heap on the defensive line, in the secondary, at running back — an embarrassment of riches — and the quarterback, Kansas State transfer Will Howard, has been an excellent addition so far.
Day, in his sixth full season, has still lost only three conference games (all to Michigan) and now has Chip Kelly, the former star coach of Oregon, coordinating his offense. The Buckeyes have scored 20 touchdowns in 21 red-zone trips, succeeding on the strengths of superior talent and superior coaching. Weaknesses? Good luck finding any.
But the Ducks aren’t without hope, not even close to it. QB Dillon Gabriel is hitting on 77.8% of his passes, tops in the land, with 43 completions — five for touchdowns — to Tez Johnson alone. Jordan Burch has five sacks for a top 10 defense. And it bears repeating that Big Ten teams have almost uncannily struggled on the West Coast not just this year but across decades.
And if you’ve ever been to Autzen Stadium at night, you know football environments get no better anywhere. No matter how prepared the Buckeyes are for it, it’s going to rock their world at least for a while. It’s not as bad as losing for a fourth straight time to Michigan, but: Ducks 27, Bucks 26.
OTHER WEEK 7 PICKS
All games are Saturday.
Stanford (+23½) at No. 11 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM): Um, about that Legends Trophy? The legends from Palo Alto, Calif., have been blown out by at least 21 points in four of the last five games in this annual series. The lone exception, though, was two years ago at Notre Dame Stadium, when the Cardinal — 16½-point underdogs — pulled off a shocking 16-14 upset. They’ll try to hem in the Irish running game and keep it strangely close again. Irish, 27-10.
Purdue (+22½) at No. 23 Illinois (2:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM): No wonder this rivalry trophy is called the Purdue Cannon — the Boilermakers have won four straight, seven of eight and 15 of 19 in this annual series. The Illini even got smoked 44-19 in a pick-’em game last year on what had to be the ugliest Saturday for Bret Bielema as their coach. But things are quite different this time. The Boilers, outscored by 140 points over their last four games, are the worst team in the Big Ten, and the Illini are fresh after a bye week. Boilers QB Hudson Card is expected to miss the game, with Ryan Browne — much more of a runner — in his stead. The Cannon changes hands, 34-17.
No. 4 Penn State (-4) at USC (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): A sneaky little factor could be the weather, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s. Advantage, Trojans? The heat and the two-time-zone factors might be the entire list of their advantages, or maybe that’s giving the still-unbeaten Nittany Lions a bit too much credit. Upset, 27-24.
My favorite favorite: Iowa (-2½) vs. Washington (11 a.m., FOX 32): The Huskies are coming off a win against Michigan in which they looked terrific, but that was in Seattle and this one dang sure ain’t. There is a “welcome to Big Country” element to this that’s very real, especially at 9 a.m. West Coast time. Hawkeyes steal their visitors’ breakfast.
My favorite underdog: No. 18 Oklahoma (+14½) vs. No. 1 Texas (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): They can take the Red River rivalry out of the Big 12, but they can’t take the Big 12 out of the Red River rivalry. Or something like that. Texas and OU belong to the SEC now, but it’ll feel like it always has with a crowd split down the middle in Dallas. These matchups are wildly unpredictable — and nine of the last 11 have been one-score affairs. Longhorns win, Sooners cover.
Last week: 4-2 straight-up, 2-3-1 against the spread.
Season: 26-13, 19-19-1.