Swing by swing states to see what issues will decide the election

With less than four weeks until Nov. 5, the inundation of election news — and more importantly, non-news — is at a fever pitch.

From a bombardment of election ads — especially in swing states — to a dramatic parsing of every word out of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’ mouths, to an obsession with fringe side issues and irrelevant characters that impact almost no actual voters, it’s easy to get caught up in plot lines that may be entertaining or unnerving but aren’t really going to determine who wins.

For example, did you hear about white supremacist Nick Fuentes’ latest rant? Let me save you the trouble: He’s not voting for his one-time buddy Trump because a Trump White House will be staffed by "gays" and "Jews."

Or, did you read about the anti-trans apparel company, XX-XY, attacking Nike for supporting trans athletes?

Or how about Bob Woodward’s new book? The veteran reporter’s tome "War" hit the shelves right in time for the election, titillating news anchors with "juicy" excerpts about Trump’s phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

No one cares who Nick Fuentes is voting for. The issue of trans athletes may be important, but it doesn’t rank very high on the list of top priorities for most voters — in fact, it doesn’t actually make most lists at all. And Woodward’s latest book is probably a great read — but go ask a voter in Flint, Michigan, or Asheville, North Carolina, if it’s swaying their vote, and I bet you’ll get crickets.

It’s easy to get sidetracked with distractions, clickbait, and political pablum that is in many cases designed to tug at your emotions and whip you into a frenzy. And while stories like these may play with the base of both parties, the base is not who will decide this election — it’s everyone else.

Battleground state polls

I’ve spent the majority of this election cycle covering it in a way I never have before, with a laser-focus on voters in the seven swing states whose votes will matter most.

These aren’t base voters, for the most part. They’re independents, moderates and undecideds, and they are the stars of this election.

Look at any battleground poll and you’ll notice a common thread — in these seven states, Harris and Trump are statistically tied. In some cases they are literally tied, and in others they are separated by less than a point.

The margins will determine the outcome of this election, and they could be even tighter than they were in 2020.

So if you want to know who has the best chance of winning, you need to drill down on these swing state undecided voters and what matters most to them. It’s what I spend my days doing.

And I can tell you what doesn’t come up. Ever.

Pet-eating migrants: Swing state voters aren’t worried about this, believe it or not.

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s comments about anything: The Jewish space laser lady is back, insisting some ominous "they" can "control the weather." Even Georgia voters don’t care about her lunacy.

Secret Service: Not one swing voter has brought up concerns, well-deserved as they are, over the Secret Service and Trump’s assassination attempts.

Hurricane politics: Whether it’s Trump’s deplorable FEMA lies, or the finger-pointing at Harris and President Joe Biden, voters in Georgia and North Carolina are worried about rebuilding their lives, not politics.

Here’s what swing state voters do care about:

The cost of goods: In every swing state, the vast majority of voters have a simple ask — they want the things they purchase to be more affordable. When they say "the economy," they mean their own economy.

Housing availability and affordability: There’s a housing crunch, and it’s adversely affecting swing state voters for whom rent has gone up and inventory is especially low.

Immigration: Voters in every swing state, regardless of whether it’s on the border, care about fixing a broken immigration system. They want more border security and fairness, and they aren’t on the extreme right or left of the issue.

Reproductive rights: Unsurprisingly, women and young people care a lot about abortion and reproductive health, and most are in favor of legal abortion. Very few are demanding the abortion bans that Republicans all over the country, including in swing states, are instituting.

Gaza: For young people — a sizable voting bloc — this is a very consistent theme. They want an end to the war, and most are pro-Palestinian.

So, aside from these core issues, you have my permission to tune everything else out from now to Nov. 5. And take a deep breath — it’s almost over.

S.E. Cupp is the host of “S.E. Cupp Unfiltered” on CNN.

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