Low Expectations Led to Fair Results During Frieze Week’s London Evening Sales
The marquee London Evening Sales came with tempered expectations this year, following recent auctions in New York City and Hong Kong that confirmed a cooling market. The U.K., in particular, has been hit hard by this slowdown, as Brexit’s lingering effects are compounded by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. All three of the major auction houses had to tread carefully with estimates and fresh-to-market consignments, but some navigated these challenges better than others, as shown by sell-through rates, if not the final hammer prices. Sellers had to adjust to the buyers’ market, with many lots selling at or just near the low estimate.
Christie’s kicked off this market test session on October 9 at 5 p.m., steering through turbulent times with a commendable performance. Their 20/21st-century Evening Sale achieved an impressive 89 percent sell-through by lot and 96 percent by value, closing with a total of £81,980,050 ($107,147,925), midway through the starting estimate of £73.4-110.7 million. Remarkably, this result represents an 83 percent increase year-on-year from the October 2023 total of £44,641,420.
Christie’s secured some standout contemporary and modern consignments, though the latter underperformed: works by masters like Chagall, Pissarro and Beckmann failed to meet their reserves and were among the unsold lots of the evening. The auction began with energy, marked by competitive bidding that pushed two René Magritte masterpieces—Shéhérazade (1947) and the night scene L’invitée (1956)—to final prices of £882,000 and £1,200,000 respectively, with only the latter backed by a third-party guarantee. Shortly after, another Magritte, Le Grand Style (1952), sold for £2.6 million ($3.4 million) on the phone with Christie’s Xin Li—the work had reportedly first sold to Waddington Gallery for £51,000. Among other strong performers in the Surrealism category was a delicate, fresh-to-market Leonor Fini, which exceeded expectations to sell for £907,000 against an initial estimate of £450,000-650,000.
Strong results continued in the early lots, such as Ed Ruscha’s Music (lot 4), which realized £378,000 after a three-way phone bidding war. Jenny Saville’s portrait closed at £378,000, followed by a Cecily Brown that sparked lively competition before achieving £3,065,000. Two museum-quality Lucian Freud paintings also surpassed their lower estimates, including one of his largest nudes, Ria, Naked Portrait (previously exhibited at the National Gallery), though both ultimately hammered for a measured £11,810,000.
A burst of excitement came just a few lots later with Edgar Degas’s work on paper, Danseuse à mi-corps rajustant son épaulette (1896-1899), which soared to £1,008,000 against its original estimate of £400,000-600,000. The other extraordinary performance for a 19th-century work was achieved by Danish artist Vilhelm Hammershøi, whose piece fetched £1.25 million—79 percent above the high estimate of £500,000. Hauser & Wirth’s recent exhibition of Hammershøi may have given this sale a “gentle push.” On the contemporary side, bidding was lively but mostly modest, with Lynette Yiadom-Boakye’s 1 pm Saturday selling for £819,000, setting a new auction record for the artist, and Sarah Sze’s Spell reaching £756,000.
The evening’s top lot came from one of the auction’s most buzzed-about consignments: pieces from the personal collection of Damien Hirst. His Jeff Koons Blue Rabbit Balloon sold for £9.9 million via specialist Stephanie Rao, likely to an Asian buyer. Also from Hirst’s collection, Richard Prince’s Untitled (Cowboy) (1997) closed at £2.1 million after intense bidding, surpassing its high estimate of £1.8 million, while Hurricane Nurse (2004) from Prince’s series sold below estimate at £4.2 million, likely due to overly ambitious expectations. Another high-profile disappointment was Willem de Kooning’s Untitled XVIII (1986), which failed to reach its low estimate, hammering at £3.5 million despite being part of a coveted consignment from Eric Clapton’s collection.
Christie’s will continue its October auctions in Paris next week, starting with the “Collection Danute et Alain Mallart Bruxelles, Paris – Vilnius on October 17 at 2 p.m., followed by Avant-Garde(s) including Thinking Italian the next day at 6 p.m., with the Day Sales to follow.
The same night, the gavel shifted to Sotheby’s for its Contemporary Evening Auction, which proved to be a relatively subdued affair, struggling out of the gate as several top names either passed or barely hit their reserves. This included Andy Warhol’s Self-Portrait (1963-64), consigned by Peter Brant, which went unsold, along with Yoshitomo Nara’s Broken Heart Bench (2006-07), which failed to meet its arguably inflated low estimate of £2,500,000. Of the twenty-two lots offered, at least ten sold under their estimates or were passed entirely. Among the few bright spots, David Hockney’s L’Arbois, Sainte-Maxime (1968) stood out as the top lot of the night, attracting competitive bidding and closing at £13,150,000 with fees, more than ten times its last auction price. The painting had previously sold at Sotheby’s in 2011 for £1.3 million against an estimate of £1-1.5 million.
A more measured result came for Matthew Wong, whose Van Gogh-inspired nightscape Moonlight Mile sold just above its estimate at £1,563,816. Stronger performances followed with Bridget Riley’s Zig series, Gaillard 2, which sold to an Asian collector for £1,920,000, and Anselm Kiefer’s Der Morgenthau Plan, acquired by an Indian collector for £1,020,000, slightly exceeding its estimate. Lucian Freud’s Child with a Toy Dog hammered for £1,980,000, while one of the night’s unexpected breakouts came from Banksy’s Vest, which sparked a flurry of bids and ultimately sold for £780,000, doubling its initial estimate of £200,000-300,000. Overall, however, Sotheby’s wrapped up with a moderate total of £37,582,816, just over the low estimate and significantly below last year’s result for the same sale.
Sotheby’s will continue its October auction series at its new Paris headquarters, kicking off on October 12 ahead of Art Basel and the city’s busy art week. Highlights include Joseph Beuys: The Schellmann Collection on October 17 at 7 p.m., followed by Surrealism and its Legacy and Modernités on October 18 starting at 2:30 p.m.
Phillips’s Modern and Contemporary Evening Sale saw a much livelier atmosphere, closing at £15 million with a 77 percent sell-through by lot and 79 percent by value. Leading the sale was David Hockney’s much-anticipated Path Through Wheat Field, July (2005), featured in his Royal Academy exhibition, which exceeded its high estimate to achieve £3,315,000. There was strong interest in Andy Warhol’s iconic portrait of Princess Diana, which sold to a woman in the front row for £1,000,000, though a portrait of then-Prince Charles failed to meet its £750,000 low estimate, despite the same bidder starting to show interest. Yayoi Kusama’s Pumpkin (M) (2016) attracted lively bidding but only narrowly surpassed its low estimate, landing at £1,984,000 with fees. Similarly, Lucio Fontana’s Concetto spaziale, Attese (1967) barely passed the low estimate, closing at £889,000, while Marino Marini’s sculpture failed to find a buyer at its reserve.
A surprise hit was Andreas Gursky’s New York, Mercantile Exchange (2000), which doubled its £250,000-350,000 estimate, selling for £609,600 despite skepticism about photography’s market performance. Similarly, Wolfgang Tillmans’s Freischwimmer 104 sold well at £190,400. Tracey Emin’s This is Life Without You – You Made Me Feel Like This (2018) achieved a solid £889,000 on the higher end of its estimate, supported by a guarantee and pre-sale interest. Meanwhile, young painter Francesca Mollett saw a promising result with her piece hammering at £42,000 (£53,340 with fees), and Derek Fordjour’s work, previously exhibited at his St. Louis museum show, sold under estimate at £180,000.
SEE ALSO: Phillips’ Specialist Patrizia Koenig On What to Expect This Auction Season
Notable performances came from Michaela Yearwood-Dan, who sold just above her high estimate at £165,100, and Jenna Gribbon’s portrait of her girlfriend, last seen at gallery MASSIMODECARLO, which went for a modest £101,600. Anna Weyant’s So Bored (2021), which once fetched half a million at auction, closed at £266,700, exceeding a conservative £120,000-180,000 estimate, reflecting a recalibration closer to her primary market pricing. The standout moment of the night was the auction debut of London-based Joseph Yaeger, whose Sphinx Without a Secret (2021) sparked a bidding war among seven buyers and ultimately achieved £203,200, far surpassing its original estimate of £20,000-30,000.
“We sourced fresh-to-the-market works that resonated with collectors globally and priced them fairly,” Katherine Arnold and Keith Gill, who led the sale for Christie’s, told the press, and this season’s approach appears to be the key driver behind that auction house’s relative success. However, this strategy also requires complex negotiations with sellers, who must either recalibrate their expectations to fit the current climate or hold off for a better moment. The high drama on the block is noticeably absent—at least in London—and this season revealed few, if any, market shifts toward emerging names as the art world leans more conservatively into established artists with proven markets.