Harris, Trump locked in tight races in Rust Belt battlegrounds: Polling

Vice President Harris and her opponent, former President Trump, are locked in tight races in the Rust Belt battleground states with 26 days until Election Day, according to new polling released Wednesday. 

The new survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, showed Trump leading in Michigan and Wisconsin while Harris had the upper hand in Pennsylvania among the state's likely voters. 

The ex-president had a 3-point lead, 50 percent support to 47 percent, with Michigan’s likely voters. Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent presidential candidate Cornel West earned 1 percent support each. In September’s iteration of the poll, Harris was up by 5 points, 50 percent support to 45 percent. 

In Wisconsin, the former president had a 2-point advantage, getting 48 percent support to Harris’s 46 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Oliver were each at 1 percent support. Harris was up by 1 point, 48 percent support to 47 percent, over Trump in the September version of the survey. 

Harris had a 3-point gap in Pennsylvania, garnering 49 percent support to the former president’s 46 percent. Stein and Oliver were at 1 percent support each. The vice president had a wider lead in the September edition of the survey, in which she earned 51 percent support to Trump’s 45 percent. 

"That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said. 

The likely voters in all three states trust Trump more to handle the economy, one of the top issues for voters in the 2024 White House race. Around 49 percent of respondents favored the ex-president on the issue in Pennsylvania, while 47 percent sided with Harris. In Michigan, 53 percent of respondents picked Trump while 45 percent chose Harris. The former president had the biggest advantage on the issue in Wisconsin, amassing 53 percent support to the Democratic nominee’s 44 percent. 

The numbers were similar when it came to immigration, another crucial issue in 2024. Trump’s advantage was the slimmest in Pennsylvania, getting 50 percent support to Harris’s 46 percent. In Michigan, the Republican nominee had a 9-point lead on the issue, with 53 percent support to 44 percent. The former president’s lead was 8 points in Wisconsin, 52 percent support to 44 percent, according to the poll. 

On the issue of preserving democracy, Harris had a wider lead in the Keystone State, but the other two states' margins were razor-thin going both ways. She had a 6-point lead on the issue in Pennsylvania, with 50 percent support to 44 percent. Michigan barely sided with Trump. The ex-president got 49 percent support to Harris’s 48 percent. Wisconsin was the opposite of Michigan. There, the vice president led by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent. 

The Democratic nominee had bigger leads in all three states on abortion. She had a nearly 20-point lead on the issue in Pennsylvania, garnering 55 percent support to Trump’s 37 percent. In Michigan, she had a 12-point gap, getting 52 percent support to 40 percent. The vice president’s advantage on the issue in Wisconsin was 14 points, 53 percent support to 39 percent, according to the survey. 

In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris had a 3-point lead among registered voters, with 46 percent support to 43 percent. Trump had a 2-point advantage in the InsiderAdvantage Pennsylvania poll that was released Tuesday. The most recent New York Times and Siena College national poll showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump, 49 percent support to 46 percent, among likely voters. 

The Democratic nominee, for now, has a 3 percent lead over Trump, 49.8 percent to 46.8 percent, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s latest tally of polls. 

The Quinnipiac University was concocted from Oct. 3-7. The pollsters surveyed 1,412 likely voters in Pennsylvania where the margin of error was 2.6 percentage points. In Michigan, they surveyed 1,007 likely voters and the margin of error was 3.1 percentage points. In Wisconsin, they asked 1,073 likely voters and the margin of error was 3 percentage points.