Majority of Ohio voters favor Issue 1 redistricting amendment, poll shows

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- A majority of Ohio voters back a constitutional amendment to change how the state's political districts are drawn while Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno are locked in a tight Senate race, new polling shows.

Sixty percent of Ohioans plan to vote "yes" in favor of Issue 1, while 20% plan to vote "no" and 20% are not sure, according to a new poll by Bowling Green State University's Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. The nonpartisan poll, with a margin of error +/- 3.6 percentage points, surveyed 1,000 likely Ohio voters online from Sept. 18 to 27.

The network said partisan differences over Issue 1 are clear in the poll's results, with 82% of Democrats backing the measure vs. 41% of Republicans. Among independents, 57% plan to vote in favor of Issue 1.

If passed, Issue 1 would create an independent redistricting commission of 15 Ohio citizens who would be tasked with mapping out the state's congressional districts, state Senate districts and state House districts, rather than the current commission made up of seven politicians. A "yes" vote would be in support of the citizen-led commission, and a "no" vote means to keep the system as is.

"In both 2015 and 2018, Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved measures designed to reduce partisan gerrymandering. Our results suggest we're headed for a similar result in 2024," said BGSU political science professor Melissa Miller.

Meanwhile, Ohio's U.S. Senate race is being closely watched across the county and promises to be incumbent Sherrod Brown's toughest contest yet. The poll found Brown with a slight edge, 49% to 45% against his opponent, Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown is seeking his fourth term as a U.S senator and has won each of his previous campaigns by at least six points.

Brown is the only public figure who holds a net positive favorability rating among respondents, +1, while Moreno has the lowest net favorability rating at -14. Nearly one in five of those polled report having neither a favorable nor unfavorable view of Moreno.

"This will likely be Sherrod Brown's most difficult Senate campaign," said Robert Alexander, BGSU professor and director of the Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. "His success or failure will say a lot about the future competitiveness between Democrats and Republicans in Ohio for the foreseeable future."

The network also found Donald Trump continues to poll strongly in Ohio, besting Kamala Harris 51%-44% among likely voters. Trump has won the state in his two previous campaigns by nearly identical eight-point margins. 

Fifty-nine percent of respondents believe the country's economic condition has worsened in the last year and only 23% percent believe the country is headed in the right direction. Trump continues to be a polarizing figure as a nearly equal number of respondents hold favorable, 46%, vs. unfavorable, 49%, views of him.

"Donald Trump continues to hold a solid lead in Ohio. While nearly half of the electorate holds an unfavorable view of him, many Ohioans continue to be disappointed in the current economic climate," said Alexander.

Notably, the poll was conducted after Trump squared off in a debate against Harris on Sept. 10, where he claimed that Haitian migrants in Ohio were eating Springfield residents' pets and local wildlife. As he and running mate J.D. Vance, a U.S. senator representing Ohio, used the disproved story to highlight the systemic strain on Springfield, the situation escalated to bomb threats on local buildings, and a Haitian nonprofit filing criminal charges against the pair.

The network found 84% of Ohioans believe the current political environment is as toxic as it has been in their lifetime, but 85% also believe it is important for people with differences to be open and talk to one another.

When thinking about politics, respondents feel exhausted, 86%, and angry, 85%, at least some of the time. In addition, large majorities believe that the current political environment will lead to increased violence, 79%, and that there are serious threats to the future of democracy given the issues that currently divide the country, 83%.