Senate Dems targeting the 'two least likeable' Republicans to hold majority: analysis

Senate Democrats are fighting for any path they can to save their endangered majority, wrote Hayes Brown for MSNBC — and they are now going to two states that have given them struggles in several recent elections: Texas and Florida.

"The electoral map was never a good one for Senate Democrats this cycle, forced to defend far more seats than their Republican counterparts," wrote Brown. "With the GOP set to claim a seat from retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., the upper house is already starting from a 50-50 split. The odds for Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., pulling off an upset in his now deep-red state have continued to narrow, forcing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., to look elsewhere for a path to a majority."

The only real options they have to go on offense, outside of a dark horse independent candidate in Nebraska who wouldn't even necessarily be part of the Democratic caucus, are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), who have clear advantages — but, given their status as "the two least likable members of the GOP caucus," aren't a lock either.

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Texas has been trending steadily toward Democrats for several election cycles, but the last few points Democrats need to win statewide have proven stubbornly elusive as Republicans still win large margins in many outlying suburbs. Florida, while right-leaning at the state level for decades, used to be winnable for Democrats in good years, but the state party has faced years of dysfunction and not managed a statewide win since a single row office in 2018.

"Things are looking tight in Texas again this time around, with Democratic Rep. Colin Allred closing in on Cruz. Most polls still have Cruz ahead by around 3 points, but an outlier run by Morning Consult had the congressman up by 1 point," wrote Brown.

Cruz, moreover, understands he is vulnerable, trying to pivot from his record as a far-right firebrand and playing up any "bipartisan" credentials he can find, while he begs for donations to match the flood of money Allred is raising to fight him.

Scott, by contrast, has run unapologetically to the right, "angling to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., at the top of the GOP caucus and take the title of majority leader ... But his time at the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the most recent midterms wasn’t exactly a wild success, nor was his bid to pounce against McConnell last year," noted Brown. "Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell isn’t faring quite as well against Scott as Allred is against Cruz, but she is gaining traction. Five Thirty Eight’s polling average has Scott up by 4 points, which is half of the lead he held over the summer," partly due to running against the state's harsh abortion laws.

The upshot, concluded Brown, is that however tough they may be, Texas and Florida are the only options Democrats have to target GOP incumbents.

"There’s plenty of reason for cynicism in the face of these odds and so many prior disappointments," he said. "But with this much on the line, there’s little choice but to square up and take a running start at that football again. Better to land flat on your back than be left wishing you’d taken the chance at dispatching the likes of Scott and Cruz."