What do the xG numbers say about Arne Slot’s start to life as Liverpool head coach?
Arne Slot would’ve been fully aware that, when agreeing to become Liverpool’s new head coach earlier this year, he was taking on the enormous challenge of succeeding a deified figure in Jurgen Klopp.
Far from being cowed by the German’s shadow, though, the 46-year-old has enjoyed a near-perfect start to his reign at Anfield, winning nine of his first 10 games in charge to guide the Reds to the summit of the Premier League and have them on track to qualify directly for the last 16 of the Champions League.
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The top-flight table makes for pleasant reading for Liverpool fans, but drilling down into the underlying numbers, just how impressively have Slot’s team been performing so far?
xg For – Liverpool have room for improvement
The Reds may be top of the Premier League but three teams have exceeded their current tally of 13 goals, nine of which have come from either Luis Diaz or Mo Salah.
Slot’s side have the second-highest xG in the division with 15.69, which is fractionally lower than Arsenal’s 15.89 (WhoScored), an impressive statistic in its own right but one which highlights that LFC could actually have been even more prolific in recent weeks.
Misses such as those from Diogo Jota against Crystal Palace and Dominik Szoboszlai at Wolves didn’t cost the Reds in either game, but those are exactly the kind of chances which need to be gobbled up against the league’s top teams.
xg Against – Liverpool the standard bearers
Seven games into the Premier League season, Liverpool have still conceded only two goals. Wolves let in more than twice that amount in their most recent match alone (5-3 v Brentford).
The underlying figures suggest that the Reds have been indebted to the heroics of Alisson Becker – now sidelined with a hamstring injury – and the profligacy of opposition attackers, with Slot’s team having an xG against of 6.75, which is 237.5% higher than their actual goal concession tally (WhoScored).
Nonetheless, it’s still the best xG against differential in the Premier League, which is an indicator of the greater control that LFC exert when holding leads after the thrilling yet sometimes chaotic days under Klopp.
Conclusion – so far so good for Slot
Slot and his equally meticulous coaching staff will be aware of the numbers behind Liverpool’s performances and realise that, as serenely as things have been going so far, there’s still scope for improvement, especially with a fiendish run of fixtures coming up after the October international break.
However, should the Reds manage to maintain their current position when the season is done and dusted, their fans won’t care one jot about the details if Virgil van Dijk is hoisting the Premier League trophy at Anfield in May.
That utopian scenario is still a long way off, but LFC have negotiated almost every hurdle in their path so far under their new boss, and can feel confident of keeping the feel-good factor going into the winter and beyond.
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