New poll shows who Hispanics are backing in southwest swing states
With less than a month to go until Election Day in November, a new poll indicates Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump among self-identified Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada, two crucial southwestern battleground states.
But Trump has made gains with younger male Hispanic voters compared to four years ago, according to a pair of Suffolk University/USA Today surveys released on Monday.
According to the poll, Harris leads Trump 57%-38% among Hispanic voters in Arizona, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver both under 1% support. Three percent of voters remain undecided. When asked how they voted in the 2020 election, 55% of those Hispanic voters said they voted for President Biden, while a third said they voted for Trump.
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The vice president's lead over the former president is slightly smaller in neighboring Nevada, at 56%-40%. According to the survey, Independent American Party's Joel Skousen is just over 1%, Libertarian Chase Oliver is under 1%, and 2% are undecided. When asked how they voted in the 2020 election, 56% said they voted for Biden, while 33% said they voted for Trump.
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"So far, Harris is falling short of the 24-26 point advantage that Joe Biden carried with Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada in 2020, according to the exit polls from those states," Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos highlighted. "This Democratic shortfall is largely due to young Hispanic men."
In both states, a majority of men under 50 years of age are choosing Trump over Harris.
Trump leads Harris 53%-40% among Hispanic men ages 18-34 in Nevada, and tops her 53%-39% among Hispanic men ages 35-49.
In Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee leads the Democratic Party standard-bearer 51%-39% among Hispanic men ages 18-34, and 57%-37% among Hispanic men ages 35-49.
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The economy and immigration were the top two issues on the minds of those questioned in the survey in both states.
Arizona and Nevada have referendums to protect access to abortion on the ballot in November – and the poll indicates majority support for the measures in both states.
Arizona and Nevada – along with Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – had razor-thin margins in the 2020 presidential election that decided Biden's victory over Trump. And all seven states are likely to determine if Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election in the race for the White House.
The latest surveys in Arizona and Nevada – as well as the other five swing states – indicate margin-of-error races between Harris and Trump.
The Suffolk University/USA Today surveys were conducted Sept. 27-Oct. 2, through live interviews of 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in the states of Arizona and Nevada. The overall sampling error for results from each state is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.