Storm surge from Milton could ‘nearly double’ the size of Helene’s

Update: This story has been updated to reflect the NHC’s 4 p.m. Milton update.

Officials in Pinellas County said Sunday that the storm surge from what is now Hurricane Milton could be as high as 10 feet, nearly double the amount that residents on the barrier islands contended with from Hurricane Helene just a little over a week ago.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. Sunday update, Milton was centered about 800 miles west southwest of Tampa, moving east at about 7 mph with sustained winds of 85 mph. It is expected to make landfall on Wednesday on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a Category 3 storm.

“Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida tonight or early Monday,” the center said.

“I know you’re tired. I know you’re fatigued. I know you’re exhausted, but you need to take this storm seriously,” said Pinellas County Commission Chair Kathleen Peters during an emergency briefing by officials at 1:30 p.m. Sunday.

Also on Sunday, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a declaration of emergency for 35 counties:

Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia.

The order specified that landfills in areas damaged by Hurricane Helene remain open to accept debris from that storm before Milton arrives. It also says state emergency officials “shall not have the authority to suspend or limit the sale, dispensing, or transportation of firearms.”

10 feet of surge

In Pinellas, Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins said after speaking with officials from the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center that “they told us to plan for 10 plus feet of storm surge.”

Twelve people in Pinellas County died as Helene passed the area before making landfall Sept. 26 on Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 and created a 500-mile path of destruction through the Southeast. A total of 20 people died from the storm in the state so far, according to CNN.

And that was a storm that was more than 100 miles away from the Tampa Bay area, said St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch. “This is a powerful Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane heading directly for us, with the potential for both surge and wind impacts on our community,” he said. “But given all of that and the fact that we face a long rebuild, we don’t have to lose any more lives in our community.”

“It’s going to be bad. That’s all you really need to know,” said Sheriff Bob Gualtieri. He added that the people in who died in the storm did so because “they didn’t listen” when told to evacuate.

“More than 500,000 that are going to be required to evacuate,” he declared (the county is listed as having a population just under a million people, according to U.S. Census figures).

And he said that in past storms, including Helene, his agency has opted not to force people living in evacuation zones to leave after they have been ordered to do, which has led to bars and restaurants remaining open and some people continue to live life as usual.

‘We are going to shut you down’

But speaking bitterly about the fact that there were more than 1,500 distress calls during Helene that his agency couldn’t answer because of the inability to get through the high water levels in the streets, Gualtieri said he was going to assert himself more forcefully in the coming days.

“We’re going to shut you down, because we can’t have the tragedy that we had a week-and-a-half-ago.”

Duke Energy Florida president Melissa Seixas at a press conference in Pinellas County on Oct. 6, 2024. (Photo by Mitch Perry/ Florida Phoenix

Earlier in Pinellas County, local officials gathered at a different press conference organized by Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

“If you lived on the barrier islands, then you were flooded,” Redington Beach Mayor David Will said of what happened from Hurricane Helene. “This storm coming behind will be worse. The storm surge will be higher. There is no reason to stay on the barrier islands.”

Duke Energy Florida President Melissa Seixas said she expects Milton to cause “significant outages for our customers so, even if you stay, you have to plan for extended outages,” adding that it will hit every part of Duke’s energy grid.

Concern

There is considerable concern about what the storm might do to all the existing debris that remains spread out since Helene — hence DeSantis’ order in that area.

Speaking during a news conference in Tallahassee Sunday morning, said that he had ordered “all disaster debris management sites … to remain open and to allow 24-hour debris drop off” and “directed state personnel and assets to work around the clock to assist local entities as they continue cleanup and dispose of debris from Hurricane Helene.”

Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector speculated that only as little as “maybe 5%” of all of the debris littering Clearwater Beach has been picked up so far.

“We’re in a desperate situation to move as much as we can, as quickly as we can, but I don’t think it’s reasonable that we can get all of it,” he said, referring to Milton’s expected landfall sometime on Wednesday.

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