Luis Severino, Cristopher Sánchez; Breaking Down The Game 2 Pitching Matchup

After the New York Mets emerged victorious over the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Saturday, the page quickly turned to an all-important Game 2 on Sunday. A win, and the Mets take a commanding 2-0 lead in a five game series back home to Citi Field. Who will each team turn to on the mound in the high-stakes contest?

Luis Severino

After pitching Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Luis Severino gets the nod in Game 2 of the NLDS. It was by no means an easy outing against the Brewers for Severino, who, after allowing two first-inning runs and two fourth-innings run, settled in and ended up throwing 105 pitches across six frames.

Severino has established himself as interchangeable with Sean Manaea as the Mets’ No. 1 starter this year. After a horrid 2023, Severino responded in 2024 with one of the better seasons of his career. He started 31 games, tossing 182 innings; the most he has thrown since 2018. Severino posted a 3.91 ERA to go along with a 3.88 xERA. He was everything that the Mets could have asked for when signing him to a one-year, $13 million “prove-it” deal.

In 2024, Severino has thrived on inducing soft contact (88th percentile average exit velocity and 75th percentile hard-hit rate) on the ground (72nd percentile ground-ball rate). He also did a good job not walking batters, posting a 7.9% walk rate (8.4% is league average).

For context, the Phillies rank around 10th in the majors in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Additionally, they hit the sixth-most ground balls in the league this year. The Phillies have also done a good job taking their walks, as they drew the seventh-most walks in the league this year.

As far as platoon splits go, Severino does fair better against the right-handed hitters (.615 OPS). Over his career, this holds true as well, mirroring the .615 OPS he has allowed this season. Interestingly enough, the Phillies, despite having stronger left-handed bats, are in the middle-of-the-pack when it comes to hitting right-handed pitchers in 2024. Specifically, they have a 104 wRC+ which ranks 13th in the big leagues. If you go even further, and look since the All-Star break, the Phillies rank 19th in the majors with a slightly-below average 98 wRC+.

Severino did make two starts against Philadelphia this year. Across those two starts, he allowed six runs in 12 innings (4.50 ERA). In each of his starts against Philadelphia (both in September; one at home and one on the road) Severino went six innings and allowed three runs in each start.

Cristopher Sánchez

Meanwhile, for the Phillies, they’ll turn to a starter who had a breakout season in 2024. Cristopher Sánchez threw 181 2/3 innings, posting a 3.32 ERA and 3.51 xERA. The 27-year-old set career highs in basically every statistical category and was selected to his first career All-Star game. He was certainly a revelation for the National League East winning Phillies.

In 2024, Sánchez pitched to contact (low strikeout rate) and did not walk many (84th percentile walk rate). Like Severino, the left-handed Sánchez gets a ton of ground balls (95th percentile) and does not allow hard contact (84th percentile average exit velocity and 82nd percentile hard-hit rate). Despite all this, Sánchez’s expected batting average ranked all the way down in the league’s 24th percentile.

By far the biggest weapon for the 2024 All-Star is his changeup. Sánchez’s changeup, which he throws nearly 36% of the time, has a batting average (BA) against of .177 and an expected BA (xBA) of .178. Among 2,533 qualified pitch types thrown by pitchers in 2024, Sánchez’s changeup owns the 12th-best run value in the big leagues.

For context, there are three Mets hitters who have a negative run value against the changeup this season; Harrison Bader (negative-four), Tyrone Taylor (negative-two), and Francisco Álvarez (negative-one). Everyone else has a positive run value against the pitch type with Mark Vientos leading the way at a plus-five run value and a staggering .325 batting average against the pitch type. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and J.D. Martinez all possess a plus-four run value against the changeup. Bottom-line, the Mets hit the changeup well overall.

As for the platoon splits, Sánchez is particularly good against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, but his OPS is certainly better against lefties than righties; .612 versus .672. Additionally, right-handed hitters are batting .261 against Sánchez this season. Good news for the Met is not only are they a predominately right-handed hitting lineup, but they have killed left-handed pitching overall this year. The Mets’ 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranks third in the big leagues.

One of the most intriguing aspects of Sánchez’s season is how contrasting his home versus road splits are. They are so severe, Phillies manager Rob Thomson made the decision to pitch him in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park rather than on the road in Game 3. At home this year, Sánchez is allowing a minuscule .222 batting average and .544 OPS. Meanwhile, on the road, that OPS against jumps up to .813. In all, the left-handed starter owns a 7-3 record with a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Lastly, of any team in the big leagues, Sánchez has thrown the second-most innings of his career against New York. Across 37 1/3 innings, he owns a 2-2 record and a 3.62 ERA. The Mets have a team batting average of .215 and OPS of .679 against Sánchez overall. In 2024, specifically, Sánchez has tossed 17 2/3 innings against the Mets, allowing 16 hits and nine walks to go along with a 3.06 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

Final Thoughts

On the surface, the pitching matchup does not seem as titled toward Philadelphia as the traditional numbers may indicate. The area that Severino excels in; ground ball rate, limiting hard contact, and not walk batters, goes against what the Phillies’ offense has done this season. Not to mention, Philadelphia has faltered against right-handed pitching down the stretch. Granted, Severino did make two starts against the Phillies this year, and posted a not-so-great 4.50 ERA less than a month ago.

On the Phillies’ side of things, Sánchez is one of the best home pitchers in the big leagues this season and has historically had above-average results against the Mets. However, New York has hit left-handed pitching very well this season and profile well against the young Phillies All-Star’s best pitch quite well.

Regardless of all the above, a Game 2 victory for New York would be huge. They would head back to Citi Field, for the first time since taking a regular season series against the Phillies on September 22.

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