Jaishankar’s Hard Sell In Colombo – Analysis

The elephant in the room in Indo-Sri Lankan relations is China.

The Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's parleys with Sri Lanka's new left-nationalist leaders on October 4 were cordial. But India-Lanka relations will still be troubled by the looming Sino-Indian conflict.

Jaishankar had a single-point agenda in Colombo – to convince a sceptical Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake about India's capabilities and what it can do for Sri Lanka's economic growth and prosperity without asking it to compromise its sovereignty. It was a difficult task given the latent and long standing distrust in the relationship.

The visit took place in the immediate aftermath of the September 21 Sri Lankan Presidential election in which the radical leftist and pro-China underdog, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National Peoples' Power (NPP), beat stalwarts like incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa, leader of the large Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party.

Unlike Wickremesinghe and Premadasa, who had no ideological angularities either in their domestic or foreign policy, Dissanayake's has been dyed in the wool ideological politics. He has been a longstanding campaigner against "Indian domination".

The NPP, a 21-party alliance, is avowedly moderate. But its core is the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) which has had a strong and anti-Indian strand since its founding in 1965. Dissanayake is the current JVP Supremo.

Articulating the NPP's policies ahead of the Presidential election, its spokesman (and the present Foreign Minister) Vijitha Herath toldCeylon Todaythat a JVP delegation had told Jaishankar eary this year that under an NPP government, foreign-funded or foreign executed projects would have to go through a transparent and public tendering process.

Herath was decrying past projects that were farmed out to foreign parties with nothing more than a cabinet decision under the category of "Strategic Projects". Herath said such handing out of projects was a source of huge corruption.

In the case of India, the West Container Terminal project at the Colombo port was given to Adani Ports and two wind power projects in North Sri Lanka were given to the Adanis and another Indian company, under pressure from New Delhi.

Herath assured that the existing projects would be allowed to proceed as they were a done deal, but future projects would have to go through a transparent tendering process. Indications are that the same stringent conditions will apply to all foreign-funded projects including China-funded ones. Deviation from his much trumpeted rectitude will be difficult for Dissanayake.

Seeing the writing on the wall, Jaishankar went beyond hard selling India's economic capabilities but also displayed humility in doing so. This was evident in his message on the social media platform X from Colombo. He said that he took "guidance" from President Dissanayake on India-Lanka relations. "Appreciate his warm sentiments and guidance for the????????????????relations," Jaishankar messaged after talks with the President.

Jaishankar assuaged Sri Lankans' anxieties about Indian domination in security matters. The official lndian readout said that Jaishankar and Dissanayake "recognised the importance of a continuous dialogue on security and defence to promote trust, transparency and mutual sensitivity."

Sino-Indian Conflict

India-Sri Lanka relations are not confined to the two countries. There is an elephant in the room and that is China's presence, whether real or imaginary. India objects to Chinese projects and visits of Chinese oceanographic research vessels on grounds of security.

India sees the Chinese- built and operated Hambantota port and the setting up of a power plant in North Sri Lanka by Chinese companies as a security threat. It saw the setting up a radar station in Ruhunu University on the southern coast also as a threat.

With the economic giant China in mind, Jaishankar gave a tutorial to Dissanayake on India's capabilities and what India can do for Sri Lanka's development in the field of energy production and transmission, fuel and LNG supply, connectivity, digital public infrastructure, health and dairy development.

On Sri Lanka's debt restructuring efforts, Jaishankar recalled that India had been supportive of Sri Lanka's economic stability and recovery from the very start. India was the first country to give financing assurances, which enabled the IMF to finalize the Extended Fund Facility.

Jaishankar confirmed India's support in the Official Creditors' Committee for Sri Lanka's agreement with International Sovereign Bond holders. India is also willing to expedite the conclusion of its bilateral MoU with Sri Lanka, Jaishankar added.

In his discussions with Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, Jaishankar said that India has offered to modernize the Kankesanthurai port in north Sri Lanka through a grant of USD 61.5 million. Payments for seven completed Line of Credit projects to the tune of USD 20 million could be converted into a grant, Jaishankar added. Further, India had decided to gift 22 diesel locomotives to the Sri Lankan Railways.

In response, Dissanayake said that India's economic support is critical for Sri Lanka to realize its vision of a prosperous country meeting the aspirations of its people. He referred to the potential for exporting renewable energy to India as it would help reduce production costs in Sri Lanka. The President also noted the contribution of Indian tourists to the Sri Lanka's economy and said that this has the potential to grow further.

Dissanayake took care to assure Jaishankar that Sri Lankan territory will never be allowed to be used in a manner inimical to India's security interests.

While both India and Sri Lanka appear keen on building a smooth relationship, India's quest for security against China could clash with Sri Lanka's aspiration to assert its sovereignty and independence. The clash between these two agendas had soured India-Sri Lanka ties every now and then.

India is very keen on re-starting discussions on the Economic and Technology Co-operation Agreement (ETCA). But as in the case of land connectivity, ETCA has been scary for Sri Lankans who fear Indian domination. In the Sri Lankan mind, land connectivity or very close economic cooperation, would be a recipe for Sri Lanka's subjugation.

In fact, the projects mentioned by Jaishankar in his discussion with AKD have been on the anvil for a long time but have not seen the light of day. Sri Lankans tend to agree to Indian proposals and even ink agreements, but drag their feet in implementing them.

In the months and years to come, a resurgent India will try to stem the encroachment of China in its neighbourhood. And China will try to test India's strength in the region. Sri Lanka like other South Asian neighbours will draft China to help it resist New Delhi.

Indian and Chinese Presence

Both India and China are deeply involved in Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankan armed forces have been operating a range of Indian defence equipment like L-70 guns, Indra Radar, Offshore Patrol Vessels and Army training simulators.

India had given offshore petrol vessels, and more recently, a Floating Dock. A Maritime Rescue Coordinating Centre, backed by a US$ 6 million grant from India, has been set up in Colombo. It includes seven remote stations along the island's eastern seaboard, including one close to the Chinese-run Hambantota port.

India is a major trainer of Sri Lankan armed forces personnel. India-trained officers are the single largest group in the Sri Lankan armed forces.India regularly holds military exercises with Sri Lanka, like Mitra Shakthi with the army, and SLINEX with the navy. Indian naval vessels keep visiting Colombo and other ports very regularly (even to celebrate Yoga Day!). There have been visits by aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and submarines as part of New Delhi's power projection.

China's Presence in Sri Lanka

China's economic activity has been on the back foot in Sri Lanka since COVID- 9 and the Sri Lankan economic crisis in 2020. But China had already invested in major infrastructural projects in Sri Lanka earlier, like the Hambantota Port, Katunayake-Colombo Expressway, Norochcholai Coal Power Project, among many others since 2010.

During last year's financial crisis in Sri Lanka, China's response was tepid compared to India's because Sri Lanka owned it US$ 7.4 billion. But later, China agreed to restructure Sri Lanka's debt. It said that Sri Lanka will not have to immediately repay the principal and interest due for the years 2022 and 2023.

During Sri Lanka's was against Tamil separatists, China had sold a lot of arms to Sri Lanka. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, China traded military equipment worth US$ 749 million since 1959. China's arms trade with Sri Lanka between 2000 and 2008 was US$ 271 million.

After the war, some submarines and a few naval research vessels visited Sri Lanka, raising a storm in India. All in all, China's military's influence in Sri Lanka is nothing in comparison to India's.