Know your enemy: Q&A with Andrew Mearns of Pinstripe Alley
The Royals take on the Bronx Bombers.
The Royals continue to stun the baseball world after a 106-loss season by advancing to the American League Divisional Series where they will take on the vaunted New York Yankees, who won 94 games and earned the top seed in the American League.
I talked to Andrew Mearns, site editor at Pinstripe Alley, to get his perspective on the Royals/Yankees ALDS matchup.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have put up one of the best combinations by a duo in baseball history, but who else in the lineup needs to step up if the Yankees want to advance?
The answer is probably the cast of characters you’re thinking about. Gleyber Torres had a disappointing walk year ahead of free agency, but he did play a lot better down the stretch. Although was their Opening Day leadoff hitter before falling out of the spot amid his slump, the Yankees still had few answers at leadoff in August and tried him there again. Over the final month and a half of play, Torres stayed there because he hit .313/.386/.454 with 13 extra-base hits in 39 games. If he can get on in front of Judge and Soto and immediately offer RBI opportunities, that would be key and make it much more difficult to pitch around them.
Of course, Torres isn’t going to reach base every time, so the middle of the order will be tested. At least one of Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, or Jazz Chisholm Jr. is likely going to need to make the pitchers pay when Soto and Judge don’t see strikes. Stanton’s feast-or-famine nature is well-known at this point (115 OPS+ in 2024 notwithstanding), but for whatever it’s worth, he’s often been a great playoff hitter in pinstripes, notching 11 homers and a .963 OPS in 27 games. He’s rarely been the primary reason for a series loss. My confidence in him might be the highest of the three since Chisholm had a .644 OPS in September and I’m a little worried that Wells might be worn-down given how he ended the season, though perhaps the several days off since Game 162 did him some good.
Congratulations in advance on the inevitable rally-killing Alex Verdugo grounder to the right side that turns into a double play, by the way.
The Yankees seem to have a lot of solid starters, but not a lot of separation between them. Who do you think starts this series and will Aaron Boone have a quick hook?
Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are the announced starters for the first two games. Cole will get about as long as leash as you’ll see from any starter in this playoff field outside Philadelphia, I think. Aaron Boone has a lot of deserved confidence in his ace, and if Cole looks sharp and his pitch count isn’t over 100 through six, he’ll be allowed to go seven strong. Even if he’s in a jam in the fifth or sixth, Cole will likely get the shot to work out of it that his fellow starters won’t.
As for Rodón and Luis Gil—or Clarke Schmidt if the Yankees pick him for Game 3, though Gil seems to be the favorite—look for Boone to turn to the ‘pen in a similar such jam. I think Rodón has the leeway to go five or six if he’s in good shape, but unlike Cole, if runners get on in the middle innings or he’s getting beaten up early, it might be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation (especially if Schmidt is available). Gil is the right pick for Game 3 because he has the capacity to dominate but he also kind of terrifies me. His talent crackles at his best, but when he loses the plate, things can snowball in a hurry. Boone knows this, too. Honestly, if he gets five solid innings from Gil, he’ll probably be ecstatic.
Clay Holmes led the league in blown saves this year, but overall the Yankees bullpen put up good numbers. Who gets the ball with the game on the line, and what is your confidence level in the bullpen overall?
I‘m actually feeling decent about the back end of the ‘pen at this point, which was certainly not the case a month ago, when Holmes was still the closer despite the bevy of blown saves. Since being deposed, Boone hasn’t officially named a capital-c Closer, but it’s telling that Luke Weaver has received the lion’s share of save opportunities when rested. I could never have predicted this before the season when it seemed like he might just be a fifth starter candidate, but the dude has really been a dynamo in relief. Since suffering a five-run blowup in Texas on August 10th, Weaver has a 0.92 ERA and 1.54 FIP in 19.2 innings, striking out 33 with a .433 OPS against. Devin Williams just proved that sometimes, it just doesn’t matter, but it’s nice to feel confident about the ninth again.
Boone has said that Holmes will be asked to get big outs regardless, so look for Yankees Twitter to be holding our collective breath in the late innings, even if he’s not closing. We’ll feel better when changeup spammer Tommy Kahnle is in the game. Even missing the first month and a half, he put together his healthiest season since 2019, and though the changeups sometimes miss, he’s a decent enough setup guy. Ian Hamilton could also be used in that role, as he just got back from a long stint on the IL. Early on, the “slambio” specialist didn’t look like the reliever who was a surprise 2023 standout. I try to not put too much in stock in only a handful of relief outings, but at the very least, he allowed just one run in eight September outings (and innings), striking out 11 and walking none.
Back to Kahnle for a second, he’s actually better against lefties than righties, so he might get the ball when a lefty is up in a pivotal late spot. But I’d be shocked if Tim Hill doesn’t come in for at least one crucial lefty/lefty matchup in the fifth, sixth, or seventh. The vet is all about the soft contact from a weird angle, and since coming to New York in late June, it’s worked with a .452 OPS against lefties. Once we dip beyond Hill though, my confidence in pretty much any member of the bullpen. Again, I’m not 100% on how they’ll use Schmidt, but he might need to get some big outs, too.
In short: Weaver yay; Kahnle woo: Hamilton hurrah; Hill perhaps; Holmes and everyone else, close your eyes and think happy thoughts.
It has been 15 years since the Yankees last won a title, the longest championship drought in club history is 18 years. How much pressure is on this team to win it all?
When you’re only guaranteed one year of Soto anyway and your biggest modern nemesis is already sitting at home? Heaps.
Boone has a team option for 2025 that hasn’t been picked up yet, and I think the only chance he doesn’t come back at this point is if they lose a first-round series. If you ask fans, there is palpable frustration in the team’s playoff results in seven years under him. He’s only come close to a pennant once, back in 2019. Otherwise, he’s lost two Division Series, a Wild Card Game, and the ugly 2022 ALCS sweep at the Astros’ hands. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have both voiced confidence in Boone, so they are loathe to part with him. But if there’s another Division Series exit, then the option gives them an easy exit should they want to roll the dice with someone else.
What is your prediction on this series?
I’m not going to shy off “Yankees in 4.” But honestly, I’m only about 60/40 on the Yankees winning this series. It’s not difficult at all to imagine a situation where the strong starting pitching and revitalized bullpen shut down the non-Judge/Soto bats while KC beats Rodón and Gil. Obviously it would be great (for you guys) for the Royals to beat Cole once, but you know what? They don’t even have to beat him twice if they take care of business in the other games. The Yankees are the favorites, but I know better than to count these Royals out. (And I did have them beating Baltimore anyway.)
Many thanks to Andrew Mearns of Pinstripe Alley, and follow them for all the latest Yankees news, analysis and takes.