One year into the Middle East war, peace is more elusive than ever.
As the anniversary of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks on Israel approaches, the prospects for a lasting peace are more elusive than ever. Israel has reduced much of Gaza to ruins, killed an estimated 40,000 people, and displaced around 1.9 million others.
Displaced persons live in appalling conditions with shortages of food, water and medicine.
Israeli forces have severely degraded Hamas but have been unable to fulfill Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge to completely destroy the organization, which his own generals tell him is impossible.
With major operations in Gaza over, military activity consists of periodic raids and airstrikes that do little but add to the death toll and increase the misery of survivors. The odds of any of the surviving 60-plus hostages held by Hamas being found alive dwindles with each passing day.
Netanyahu has no interest in a cease-fire, and with a close election looming the Biden administration is not in a position to press him on the matter, even if his counterpart, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, were amenable to one. No viable plan for rebuilding and governing post-war Gaza has yet been advanced.
Now the war has spread to Lebanon and drawn in Iran. In support of Hamas, Hezbollah (“the party of God’) began firing missiles and rockets into northern Israel after Israeli forces invaded Gaza. Those attacks forced Israel to evacuate approximately 60,000 people who have lived in temporary housing for the past year, while Israeli retaliation has forced around 95,000 Lebanese to evacuate border areas.
That unsustainable situation has led to full-scale attacks on Hezbollah, beginning with the Sept. 20 assassination of its leaders (and the death of innocent civilians) using exploding pagers, culminating in the Oct. 1 invasion of Lebanon. The Netanyahu government insists it is conducting a “limited incursion” and will not occupy any part of Lebanon.
However, as the French discovered in Algeria, as Americans learned in Vietnam, Somalia and Bosnia, and as the British found out in Northern Ireland, limited operations often escalate into protracted wars.
And as the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan illustrate, a long, difficult and often unsuccessful occupation usually follows an invasion.
Getting out is much harder than going in. Incursions also have unintended consequences. In 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon in an operation ironically dubbed “Peace for the Galilee.” The invasion achieved the immediate objective of eliminating the threat from the Palestine Liberation Organization but led to the creation of Hezbollah. It failed to provide either permanent security or lasting peace. Neither did the 2006 invasion.
The outcomes of past operations do not bode well for the success of the current one.
Israel has the military might to inflict heavy casualties on Hezbollah at the cost of high civilian losses and extensive destruction, but they will probably not be able to eliminate it any more than they can Hamas. Even if they do, another group is sure to take its place, just as Hezbollah filled the void left by the departure of the PLO in 1982.
Another unintended consequence of the invasion could be the collapse of Lebanon.
The U.S. and Israel have designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but it is much more than that. With seats in parliament, a military force more powerful than Lebanon's official army, and control of territory, Hezbollah is interwoven with Lebanon's official state and society. Destroying it would create a power vacuum that could cause the country to collapse.
Failed states are breeding grounds for extremism, which the region already has aplenty. The invasion of Lebanon has already drawn in Iran, which launched 180 cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the assassinations and invasion.
Although Israel, the U.S., and Jordan shot down most of them, the evidence suggests some hit their targets. Israel has acknowledged damage caused but has not commented about casualties. Netanyahu has vowed massive retaliation, possibly including attacks on Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, which would lead to further attacks by Iran.
Meanwhile the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen watch and wait with their own arsenal of missiles at the ready.
The political situation in the West Bank has also deteriorated since last Oct. 7. Under cover of the war in Gaza, the Israeli government approved the largest seizure of occupied territory in 30 years.
Over the last year, raids on Palestinian communities and vigilante violence perpetrated by settlers has increased dramatically. Settlers are rarely punished for attacking Palestinians or damaging their property. Whatever gains Israel makes in this widening war must be weighed against the price it pays at home and abroad.
Tourism, which contributes significantly to the Israeli economy, declined 76 percent during the first half of 2024. Most major airlines have suspended flights to Israel.
As casualties in Gaza mounted, antisemitism surged across the world.
The impact of war on the Israeli population (excluding those displaced from the north) is hard to measure, but there are worrying signs.
A recent survey found that 54 percent of Israelis between the ages of 18 and 34 said that, given the opportunity, they would emigrate, and 62 percent said they “feel alone in dealing with their future.” Nothing is more soul-destroying for a society than widespread disillusionment and even despair among its young people.
The mental health effects on the general population are hard to measure but certainly significant. Scientists have identified “intergenerational trauma,” the transmission of stress from one generation to the next, possibly at the epigenetic level, which suggests the effects of this war may effect generations to come.
Other than the Israeli people themselves, the U.S. is the only nation can get Netanyahu to make peace or least accept a temporary ceasefire.
But with a tight election looming, he knows full well that the Biden administration is in no position to pressure him. Both candidates have gone out of their way to assert unwavering support for Israel.
American policy could change, depending on the outcome of the election, which may explain why Netanyahu wants to wage war so aggressively before Americans vote on Nov. 5.
Tom Mockaitis is a professor of history at DePaul University and the author of “Violent Extremists: Understanding the Domestic and International Terrorist Threat ."