Stephen Thompson scoffs at suggestion that Shavkat Rakhmonov just walks through Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad had to scratch and claw his way just to get a shot at becoming UFC champion, but even after winning the title in lopsided fashion over Leon Edwards, he’s right back in a familiar role as underdog again.

While nothing is official, Muhammad appears destined to defend his title against Shavkat Rakhmonov in either late 2024 or early 2025. With an undefeated record and a 100 percent finishing rate in his career, Rakhmonov is already heavily favored to take Muhammad’s title away from him should they meet.

But Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is quick to pump the brakes on Rakhmonov’s premature coronation having fought him and Muhammad within the past three years.

“Belal, he’s got every chance to go out there and do well against Shavkat just like Shavkat has a chance to beat him,” Thompson told MMA Fighting. “I mean he’s the champ. How can you sit there and say [Shavkat] is going to run through him when all we’ve seen from Belal is just domination with everybody? I don’t remember the last close fight that he’s had.

“He did it to Sean Brady, he out-struck him, out-grappled him. He did it with everybody. Myself, Leon, Gilbert Burns. He fought every style. He’s fought strikers. He’s fought grapplers. He’s fought very well-rounded MMA fighters. Come on, you cannot sit there and tell me [Shavkat] is going to run through Belal.”

Truth be told, Thompson once had a similar opinion on Muhammad before he watched the future UFC champion take on noted grappler Demian Maia just six months before they fought.

That was a wake-up call that forced Thompson to reconsider Muhammad as a whole different kind of threat and it still didn’t prevent him from losing a unanimous decision when they met.

“I thought the same way whenever he fought Demian Maia,” Thompson said about Muhammad. “I’m like Demian Maia’s going to crush this guy. Demian Maia could not get this guy down. Some of the best takedown defense I’ve seen. Demian Maia, if he wants you on the ground, you’re going down and Belal did an amazing job with that fight and with everybody since then.”

Thompson gives Rakhmonov plenty of praise as well after he suffered a submission loss to the top-ranked welterweight contender this past December. But just because Rakhmonov looks unstoppable doesn’t mean he can’t be beaten.

“I know [Belal is] the shorter fighter and Shavkat’s a great striker. He’s got good grappling but so does Belal,” Thompson said. “When push comes to shove, if they can’t get each other down, it’s going to be a standup match I think. Kind of like the Kamaru Usman-Colby Covington [fights], I think they’re going to cancel each other out with their grappling. They’re not going to be able to get each other down.

“So it’s going to have to be with who’s got the better striking? Belal’s got a gas tank. Shavkat kind of likes to pace himself throughout the fight. He’s not in your face the entire time throwing strikes like Belal is. I think it’s going to be a good test for both. I think it’s going to turn into a striking match.”

While Muhammad has a lot of weapons in his arsenal, Thompson believes his remarkable conditioning might actually sit at the top of the list. He saw that on display when Muhammad dismantled Edwards over five rounds to become champion back in July.

Thompson also saw Rakhmonov slow down considerably in a closer-than-expected battle against Geoff Neal that nearly went all three rounds.

“Geoff Neal, that wasn’t as fast-paced as Belal [fights],” Thompson said. “Belal’s going to make it an even harder pace, an even more intense pace than Geoff Neal did to Shavkat. He’s going to be in your face, looking for the takedown, up and down, up and down, and just making you work for five, five-minute rounds.

“If it makes it past the third, you’ll start to see that fatigue I think. Just from what I’ve seen of Shavkat, I think he’s going to get a little tired, be a little fatigued.”

Thompson won’t pick a winner because he knows the fight isn’t easy to predict. More than anything, he stresses that counting out Muhammad is done at your own peril.

“I think if Shavkat wins, it’s going to be tough,” Thompson said. “I don’t think he walks through him one bit.

“My hat’s off to Belal. I think he’s very good. I think the Shavkat fight would be an amazing fight for him.”