UFC 307 gambling preview: Will Alex Pereira keep rolling against Khalil Rountree Jr.?
UFC 307 takes place this Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, featuring two title fights and 10 other marquee matchups. In the main event, Alex Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr., and in the co-main event, women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington makes the first defense of her belt against former champion Julianna Peña. Let dive into which bouts are worth betting on this weekend.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Straight Bets
Julianna Peña (+140)
Let’s start with the downsides of this bet: Peña has not fought in two years, she hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, and she doesn’t have any victories over fighters currently competing in the UFC. That’s not great!
However, Peña does have two very important things working in her favor. First, she’s a good grappler and wrestler. Pennington is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades but historically, one of the most successful strategies against her has been scoring takedowns, as Pennington isn’t a threat off her back.
Second, Peña is tougher than advanced algebra and has absolutely zero quit in her. If something doesn’t work, she will doggedly keep trying it until it does work. That sort of relentless effort makes her a more effective striker than she should be, and should play into her hands in the championship rounds of this fight.
Ultimately, this is a coin flip fight since Pennington is good but not incredible, and so there’s value on Peña.
Jose Aldo (+118)
Jose Aldo is one of the six greatest fighters of all time. Mario Bautista is a very good fighter, but the ocean of distance between “very good” and “Pantheon level” is vast. Even at his advanced age, Aldo is still a master and creating the fight he wants. More to the point, he’s one of my favorite fighters of all time and I’m always going to back him to win.
Prop Bets
Kayla Harrison by KO/TKO or Submission (+105)
Harrison faces Ketlen Vieira on the main card in a matchup that is more or less a setup fight to get Harrison to the bantamweight title.
Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist judoka and a physical force of nature. If Vieira could keep this fight on the feet, she’d stand a chance. But she simply will not be able to do that against Harrison meaning the question is whether or not Harrison can get the finish. Vieira has proven very durable in her career but this version of Harrison is a different beast and I think she gets the statement finish.
Parlays
There’s nothing I love more than a gimmick parlay and there are two prime opportunities this week. The first is the Pennington Parlay, which I’m passing on given my support of Peña this week. The second is the Glory Parlay.
Pereira is a famously a two-division Glory Kickboxing champion, where he (less) famously had a rivalry with Cesar Almeida. Now the two men are in the UFC and train together under Glover Teixeira, and are heavy favorites at UFC 307.
Alex Pereira (-506)
As far as the actual fight goes, I wrote a big breakdown over on SB Nation, so you should check that out, but the short version is that Pereira is most likely going to clobber anyone who willingly engages in a kickboxing match with him, which is what Rountree is going to do.
Cesar Almeida (-400)
And on the prelims, that same dynamic takes places when Almeida takes on Ihor Potieria, the man who famously ended Shogun Rua’s MMA career. This is basically an off-brand version of the main event, and the outcome should be similarly expected.
Parlay these two bets together for -212 odds
Wrap Up
UFC Paris was a mixed bag. We spiked a big underdog in calling Renato Moicano’s win, but lost everything else which is obviously less than ideal. Let’s hope we do better this weekend,
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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