ALDS series preview: The Boys vs. The Bronx Bombers

The Royals face the Yankees in the playoffs for the first time since 1980.

In the 1970s and 80s, the Royals and Yankees had a heated rivalry, facing each other in the American League Championship Series four times. The Yankees won three of those matchups, winning championships in 1977 and 1978. The Royals got bad in the 90s while the Yankees built a dynasty. But the last 15 years have been much less heralded for the Bronx Bombers. They last won a title in 2009, and have not won a pennant since then.

Kansas City Royals (86-76) vs. New York Yankees (94-68)

Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 3.98 runs allowed/game (6th)

Yankees: 5.03 runs scored/game (3rd), 4.12 runs allowed/game (9th)

This year the Yankees finished with 94 wins, the most in the American League in a year where no team was exceptional. They took 5 of 7 in the season series from the Royals this year. Here’s how those games went:

• June 10 (in KC) Yankees 4 Royals 2 - Seth Lugo gives up a pair of first inning runs and is outdueled by Carlos Rodón.
• June 11 (in KC) Yankees 10 Royals 1 - Brady Singer gives up four runs in the fourth.
• June 12 (in KC) Yankees 11 Royals 5 - Opener Dan Altavilla gives up five in the first inning.
• June 13 (in KC) Royals 4 Yankees 3 - Alec Marsh is brilliant in 7 shutout innings, allowing just one hit; Maikel Garcia walk-off double to win it.
• September 9 (in NY) Yankees 10 Royals 4 - James McArthur gives up four runs in the seventh to blow the lead, Chris Stratton gives up three more in the ninth.
• September 10 (in NY) Royals 5 Yankees 0 - Seth Lugo pitches seven shutout innings.
• September 11 (in NY) Yankees 4 Royals 3 - Cole Ragans and Luis Gil pitch well, Yankees win it in the eleventh on a walk-off single by Jazz Chisholm Jr.

The Yankees were rather ordinary at home, going 44-37 and they don’t seem to benefit that much from playing in a cozy ballpark. Their offense numbers are nearly identical at home as they are on the road, including in the home run department.

Yankees hitters hit more home runs and walked more than anyone else, although much of that production came from their two stars - Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They combined for 41.7 percent of the home runs on the team and 38.9 percent of the walks. All other Yankees hitters combined to hit .233/.301/.374, roughly the production of Hunter Renfroe.

Judge hit 31 of his 58 home runs at home, not much of a split, but he drew a lot more walks and hit .328 at home as opposed to .316 on the road. He and Soto were top two in walk rate in baseball and Soto was one of just three qualified hitters to have more walks than strikeouts (joining Mookie Betts and Steven Kwan). Judge has virtually no holes in his game, but he has gone a combined 1-for-27 in his career against Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha.

Giancarlo Stanton was a much better hitter at home with 17 home runs at Yankee Stadium, while hitting just .215/.281/.385 on the road. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been a sparkplug for the Yankees, hitting .273/.325/.500 with 11 home runs and 18 steals in 46 games since being acquired from the Marlins.

Anthony Rizzo hit just .221/.299/.244 against lefties this year. Austin Wells hit a big three-run home run off James McArthur on September 9, but has gone just 4-for-48 since then to end the year. The Yankees called up top prospect Jasson Dominguez late in the season after he hit .309/.368/.480 in 44 games in Triple-A this year. Duke Ellis could make the roster as a pinch-running specialist.

Carlos Rodón led the Yankees in innings pitched and wins, with 16. He beat the Royals in Kansas City in June, and earned a no-decision in a start against them in September, allowing five runs (three earned) in 13 innings in the two outings. He is 4-6 with a 4.66 against the Royals in 13 career starts and Salvador Perez is a career .462/.481/.846 hitter against him with three home runs in 27 plate appearances. Rodón has a nasty changeup that has a 49 percent whiff rate with opponents hitting just .188 against.

Reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole missed the first few months with elbow inflammation but he finished the season strong with a complete game against the A’s on September 20, followed by 6 ²⁄₃ shutout innings against the Orioles. He has flourished in the post-season, with a career 2.93 ERA in 17 starts. He was much better away from Yankee Stadium this year, with a 2.49 ERA on the road compared to 4.31 at home. He has a 2.77 ERA in eight career starts against the Royals, and Salvy is just 1-for-15 against him, although the only hit was a home run.

The Yankees have not named a starter for Game 3, although it is likely to be Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt. Gil led the Yankees in rWAR and strikeout rate, winning 15 games in this, his rookie year, but he also led the American League in walks. He allowed one run in five innings in a no-decision against the Royals a few weeks ago. Gil is a fastball/slider/change up pitcher, with good velocity, averaging 96.6 mph with his fastball. Schmidt battled a lat injury this year, but posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts with 93 strikeouts in 85 ¹⁄₃ innings.

The Yankees bullpen had a 3.62 ERA with a solid strikeout and walk rate. Clay Holmes led the big leagues with 13 blown saves, and Tommy Kahnle and former Royals pitcher Luke Weaver got some save opportunities down the stretch. Kahnle has a 1.48 ERA since the All-Star break in 28 games. Mark Leiter Jr. has a 4.98 ERA since being acquired from the Cubs, but with 13.7 strikeouts-per-nine innings. Former Royals reliever Tim Hill had a 48.9 percent groundball rate, second-highest in baseball, and his 10.7 percent strikeout rate was the lowest among pitchers with 40 innings. Jake Cousins has been on the Injured List with a right pectoral strain, but could return this series.

The Yankees are an intimidating foe, but the lineup is top-heavy, the rotation has lacked consistency, and the bullpen has gone through some tough spots. The longest title drought in club history was 18 years (1978-1996). The pressure is on this year’s Yankees club to capitalize on their #1 seed and win a title to avoid challenging that record. The pop-gun Royals offense may not seem like a threat, but one early punch could put the Yankees on their heels.